Tuesday discussion/plays

[Satyr]

Ok let's discuss. So far only leans. When/IF I make a play, I will stress that out.

A very interesting game, Red Wings v Hawks. I'm seriously considering the puckline here. The Wings have managed to shake off the losing run, now winners of three straight, they were absolutely OWNED by the Blackhawks this year, Chicago is 3-1-0 against Detroit in 07/08.

Both teams are bruised, Chicago missing Khabibulin, Zyuzin, Havlat, Perreault...I've noticed in the past few games, their front men are not protected well enough, they're getting hit BIG TIME (esp Toews) and they have no protection.

Detroit is without Chelios, Holmstrom and Cleary.

The Blackhawks are likely out of the playoff race, but this isn't essential. They wanted to beat Edmonton, really wanted, but couldn't. And that was a MUST win for them in order to keep any kind of postseason chances.

The Red Wings are still not on top of their game but the odds are rather solid, 2.23 for a puckline bet.

Lean: DET -1,5



Also leaning Nashville. I'm aware the Sharks have won 9 in a row and you don't fade a hot team like that but the Preds are still a team that can beat them, I don't think the Sharks should be favored by this much to a team that yes, has not been playing that well lately, but a team that has speedy skaters and very leveled production and are in need of points. The Sharks still have THREE games in hand over Dallas and are 1 point behind, as far as the division title race is concerned.

Lean: Nashville ML


That's it for now, feel free to share your thoughtsopcorn:

 

[Satyr]

Come on Cat you were here a few mins ago

 

[catfood]

Yes Im here. One of my plays is gonna be -Im prepared to take some heat for it but its Toronto -1.5...This is Toronto's last chance and winning in OT does them no good. I think Toronto plays their season tonight and play their best game of the year.

 

[catfood]

I also think the Bruins are going to Ottawa at the wrong time, I think the sens are gonna get it done. Fischer -one of my favourite players by the way- has woken up. And Ive always felt hes the key player for Ottawa, hes the little engine, and hes a very very tough man, players dont seek fights against him cause he make them look stupid in a hurry. But the odds'll probably suck so itll probably be a pass.

 

[catfood]

The Islanders and Lightning is a tough one. The Isles are in a winning spot and the lightning in a losing spot, but the Isles have a hard time in Tampa Bay, and the odds arent great for an Islander win. That being said, I still think the Isles win. Andre Roy for the Lightning has been sent home, the whole TB team has pretty much quit.

 

[catfood]

My thoughts on New Jersey-Montreal...Montreal is off a 4 game roadtrip where they had 2 wins-2 losses and honestly they were lucky. The effort in the 4 games out west wasnt adequate, the PP and goalies saved them. Coach Carbonneau was upset of the team in an interview, so I think yes the Habs come up with a big effort but I cant say if it'll be enough. New Jersey and Brodeur have the voodoo on the habs. I watched all the games and Habs are 2-1 this year vs the devils but it very easily could have been 0-3.

 

[Santacapper]

think the MTL game should be closer to a pick, with a lot of factors other than home ice going to NJ.

think with the nature of the Leafs game there will be chances taken, so might take a look at the over.

Still havent decided if Im back in yet, been super busy of late

 

[STEED]

best of luck today, satyr

 

[tuck321]

In the Detroit matchup it seems to be Hasek who Chicago has faced 3 times and scored 12 goals this season and Lalime who has been a sieve on the road and Chicago considers this a must win game. The total is 5.5

 

[Satyr]

Tuck, I've been looking at that over myself, still pondering here. GL :shake:

 

[gsro]

i looked at some of my spreadsheets, and i'm still considering pulling the trigger on the over in det/chicago...and also giving the lean to monreal tonight in NJ...i don't dare not to touch the total in this game....but the puckline in detroit sounds about right

 

[Satyr]

Ok here's the deal. I love the Red Wings tonight. I waited long enough for them to break out of the slump, haven't touched them at all during that period, but now it's time to pound them again. The Blackhawks have owned Detroit this season, this is not something the Red Wings forget, especially since this is a team from the Original six. With all due respect, I don't think we will see Chicago in the playoffs. They are too troubled right now, several key players are out, their frontmen have no protection and are getting hit big time, especially evident in the OT loss against Edmonton, where, IMO - Chicago have mailed the season in. They are 7 points behind the 8th playoff spot with 12 games left. I just don't believe they can do it, same as Phoenix.

The Hawks have had a very solid 2nd half of February, including 3 wins with the start of March, but then lost to SJ and Edmonton in OT, I think they are getting blown out here. The Wings are slowly getting all their men back, most players' statuses are unclear at this point, Holmstrom is probably going to remain sidelined, Cleary and Chelios could play. Lidstrom is already back.

Hasek won't be in net tonight but Osgood (2.10 GAA, career v CHI 2.70 GAA, this season 60 minutes, 1 allowed goal)), these guys will step up for him, they're heating up for the playoffs.


An interesting statistical pattern. The Hawks have been outshot BIG TIME against Detroit in recent past (28-20, 42-17, 32-27, 36-29, 58(!!)-21, 37-19, but still lead season series 3-1.

Game Results
Recent Meetings
Date 	           Home/Away 	M/L 	     O/U 	H SOG 	H PP 	A SOG 	A PP
01/06/08 	CHI 1 - DET 3 	DET -177 	U 5.5 	20 	0-2 	28 	1-2
11/17/07 	DET 3 - CHI 5 	CHI 220 	O 5.5 	42 	1-5 	17 	0-3
11/11/07 	CHI 3 - DET 2 	CHI 157 	U 5.5 	27 	2-6 	32 	0-5
10/12/07 	DET 2 - CHI 3 	CHI 270 	P 5.0 	36 	0-5 	29 	2-8
10/06/07 	CHI 4 - DET 3 (SO) CHI 153 	O 5.0 	27 	0-4 	26 	1-7
04/07/07 	DET 7 - CHI 2 	DET -340 	O 5.0 	39 	2-11 	21 	0-4
04/05/07 	CHI 3 - DET 2 (SO) CHI 210 	P 5.0 	21 	0-1 	58 	1-3
03/02/07 	DET 6 - CHI 2 	DET -340 	O 5.5 	37 	2-9 	19 	1-5
02/27/07 	CHI 1 - DET 4 	DET -183 	U 5.5 	25 	0-3 	28 	1-5
02/21/07 	DET 4 - CHI 2 	DET -350 	O 5.5 	35 	0-4 	28 	1-4

I don't think there is a big possibility this happens again, especially since, in my opinion, we are currently on the front end of another CHI slump. These two losses are just a tip of the iceberg, if the price and the situation is right, I'll fade them again after tonight. I don't see where they can find strength to make another rally. 12 games on deck, seems that there is time, but I doubt it.

The Wings do not take embarrassment easily, they're heating up, and after a couple of wins I think this is their breakout one, looking for them to win big. Detroit 5-1.


Red Wings -1,5 (2.23 @ Pinnacle) 10 units

 

[catfood]

Good luck Bro :cheers:

 

[Satyr]

Thanks Cat, GL :cheers: