Tuesday Discussion NBA- Road team-Home team Theories

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Lets break these games down tomorrow Sammy Meatball style.


First I think that all this talk about home teams winning is not good.

So we have some home teams hitting at a very high rate? Cleveland won today, Spurs won and we are seeing a lot of series tied 2-2. The home team is playing at home and can have the advantage to win.

Now I have seen people say okay now I will take New Orleans tomorrow at the low line because favorites are 18-2 ATS.
If you take New Orleans they will have to win on the court tomorrow. THey can win if they dominate play and defend well and score on the Spurs. Unfortunately they are not going to be able to use any of the 18 spread covers by the home teams tomorrow.

If the spread covers were 10-10 or 20-0 or 50-0 it does not change the outlook on tomorrow's game. We are seeing teams that are not closing on the road this year. WHY- Is it parity no dominant teams or many teams that are fairly even. Could it have something to do with the competitive west and teams with more than 50 wins? Could it be that there is very little difference in these teams and home is making the difference?

Boston tonight IMO had no chance to win the game due to the Doc Rivers factor. Boston does not know how to win on the road. People that lost on Boston are most likely going to bet New Orleans tomorrow thinking that no road team can win.

IT is irrelevant what had happened in any other series. In this series all home teams have won by big margins. Are we going to see Spurs mail this one and rely on winning game 6 at home? NO because they need 1 road win to win the series.

J PIcks posted a brilliant comment about the JAZZ- Lakers are supposed to rebound and crush the Jazz now? WHat if the Utah pick and roll heats up, and Boozer is hitting? What if Fisher is in foul trouble forcing Farmar to play more minutes. These upsets happen when no one expects them to happen.

I think the Pistons win their series tomorrow after JAMEER just gave them more motivation. Magic are not winners on that team, just soft chokers.

We will see what Hornets and Byron Scott is made of tomorrow. The Spurs have won many road games in the past. It is rare for them to keep losing road games like this. I think they can win a tight game. I know the Hornets energy will be high tomorrow and at least make this a close game. I expect Spurs energy tobe high also, and this wont be a throw away game.

Cap the games individually- THe Hornets are not going to win tomorrow because home teams are 18-2 ATS. They will win because they outplay the spurs. I also would not take the spurs thinking that a road team is due to win in this years playoffs.

I do think though that the road team has the Momentum to win game 5 on the road because they are coming off 2 wins, it is common to win 4 straight. A good team will rebound, a young team may just lose it completely.
 
"People that lost on Boston are most likely going to bet New Orleans tomorrow thinking that no road team can win."

Is that how people cap their games?
 
I remember the Spurs /Lakers series with the Spurs off a championship win the season before - Spurs crushed the Lakers (2-0), Lakers crushed the Spurs (2-2) and along came a game 5 where nothing previously suggested anything should be different... Duncan hits a late late shot thinking the game is won, then Fisher puts a dagger in the Spurs hearts with no time left - LA won by 1 point.

I remember a finals series between the Spurs & Pistons: Spurs crush (2-0), Detroit crushes (2-2) & game 5 in Detroit, Spurs won in OT by 1 point.

Funny things start to happen to series that have previously been all the home team when you reach game 5.

regarding Tuesday, because I don't like the Spurs to repeat championships and because I think Nawlins will be dangerous off putting in their "tank is empty" performance, I see that game as less likely to produce the "game 5 suprise" than the one in Detroit. IMO either 1 (if not both) of ORL/CLE will win their game 5s.
 
Yeah Crimes that is what I am thinking. I am thinking at this point as the series progresses the whole idea of playing on the road and relying on home court is overrated. Teams up 2-0 obviously lost the 3rd and 4th games on the road this year at a higher rate.

I really think that if you just look at the first 4 games it is not a wise idea. Those games are done, and now anything can happen. I do know that teams will be competitive knowing that essentially this is a SERIES clincher game for the road teams to win the series at home in game 6. I think the home team has all the pressure to win at home in game 5 or it is big trouble if they lose.

I agree Hornets will step up the energy tomorrow and be more competitive. A common occurence in these playoffs is that the home team plays with high energy and puts together a 15-18 point lead in a matter of a few minutes span. Once this lead is established early on the road teams are done. I am not sure if Hornets can put the quick 15 point lead vs the spurs tomorrow.

The Boston game is exactly how a game 5 can play out like. The home team in game 5 Cleveland in this case does not get the big lead and the team just does not play that well. Boston could and should have won that game easily. However Boston lost that game with bad coaching by Doc.

I think though one home team in game 5 may be due for a big bounce back after the 2 road losses. Which team will do this?? Boston, Lakers or Hornets?? WHich teams have the best shot-- Spurs, Cavs or Jazz??

I think as Crimes said home teams will have more energy in their games, Hornets, lakers and Celtics will. I would have to think out of the 3 teams the most likely to win on the road would be Spurs, then Cavs then JAZZ.

Spurs have been there before and in terms of basketball x and O's they present trouble for the Hornets. SPurs can win a game on the road with their bIG 3 and experience. The Cavs have a shot with their good D, but if Bron shoots bad they will lose. Cavs are a good road team also, they almost won game 1, and with BRON anything is possible vs Boston. Keep this game close and Cavs will win it this time.
JAzz obviously will be in very tough, off 2 emotional wins, I cant see them reproducing the energy to win a 3rd game. They are going to get bad calls vs them in LA Also.

THe Game 5 Dogs are a good bet because this is I believe a very pivotal game in deciding who wins the series.
 
Boston tonight IMO had no chance to win the game due to the Doc Rivers factor

I will jump into this tomorow...the whole thread...

what I do have to say is...whatever you think of Doc..and we all have prolly same sentiments..

Mike Brown is a horrible coach and they cancel each other out big time

More mid-afternoon morrow
 
coach of CLE

He sucks

got job cuz he is one of Larry Browns former understudies I believe
 
Divol is right, Brown and Ferry worked under Pop.

So did PJ Carlesimo and look how well he did at Seattle this season

so that doesn't mean anything. Pop is a great teacher. :(
 
Mike Brown is more concerned about what Armani suit he is going to wear next than drawing up a more creative offensive scheme
 
BC, do you really think he needs to say that? If he doesn't than we will see Big Ben trying to score a three pointer? I think that they can have a moment of silence in the TO in the memory of a great game called basketball. A game that Cavs are killing slowly but for certain. I recommended my friends to watch the NBA playoff and place bets and etc... To my luck, the game that was aired Cavs - Celtics. Now I'm embarassed to show my face. How do you explain people that what they saw wasn't NBA basketball, but rugby for beginners?
 
<TABLE class=tborder id=post869277 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_869277 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d1d1e1 1px solid">Quote:
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home teams 18-1 SU & 17-2 ATS last 19
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You think we get a correction? Many of people are lining up to just bet home favs at this point and those big ass buildings in the desert aren't there because they're giving away money.
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Something to consider.
 
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