Tuesday CFB--not from vegas

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
Posted on CTG

37-31, +13,025
__________________________________________________ _________

6-0 last Saturday in CFB picking up 24 units in posted plays including top unit play on KU.. Called a backdoor cover and got it.. Actually played more than 8 units out there as I was on a big roll and pushed the envelope. Fucking hit about everything I played.. Happens once in awhile but always nice when it happens in Vegas.. Move on.:cheers:

Posted this in the discussion thread last nite:

Temple -3, -110, 4 units Win

Temple -2.5 2H,-110; 4 units.. WIN



Plenty of discussion over there in the dicussion thread but briefly betting on the much better defense at home. Have kept track of Temple and really like the way they fly to the ball. They have kept some offenses better than Ohio's pretty much in check. Beat a good Miami-Ohio team convincingly.. Ohio is banged up. As I said, plenty of info over in discussion thread.. Capped this with Temple QB out.

:smiley_acbe:
vvvvvvv


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GL Tee - I certainly agree that Temple has the better D. Thought hard about under here but didn't get the good number.
 
Mags said:
:cheers:

Was leaning Temple but at 3x don't feel like purchasing the x point...BOL bro. Any thoughts on MLB, Hamels has been money!
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thinking Phils on the series +125.. If you like Hamels in game 1, grab the plus money on the series IMO. Pretty spirited debate going on over in the MLB forum..

3 things I really like...1) Hamels vs young hitters who haven't seen him, 2) Phils lineup, 3) Brad Lidge

DH in 4 of 7 games is something that concerns me.. I'll get something going over there perhaps later.:cheers:
 
Good Luck Tee . Missed the early number was sidetracked was going to play tehm -2.5 -120 but settled for -3 -130 as I just expect Temple to win this game with a road game on deck and no how wins but 2 very good games versus tougher teams and defenses...Temple's defense very good in teh red zone as well but my concern more then the QB was FG kicking as they beat WMU if they could hit a 28 and 39yder . Impressive IMO how the D played vs WMU and at CMU recently .

BOL -disagree though on Philly think TB has a better edge everywhere...but thats what are opinions are for = sharing .....:cheers::shake:

 
tee*dub said:
thinking Phils on the series +125.. If you like Hamels in game 1, grab the plus money on the series IMO. Pretty spirited debate going on over in the MLB forum..

3 things I really like...1) Hamels vs young hitters who haven't seen him, 2) Phils lineup, 3) Brad Lidge

DH in 4 of 7 games is something that concerns me.. I'll get something going over there perhaps later.:cheers:
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Thank you my friend :tiphat:
 
Thinking temple scores a bit more then expected with a new found RB and banged up and road weary defense . Thinking 24-17 but 27-17 might be the more closer prediction....
 
2h play?

temple looks outmatched.. their running game and their defense, both what i thought to be edges, have been non-existent. they have 16 rushing yds and have allowed 192 yds. not what i expected from this match-up
 
rolling with:

Temple -2.5 2H, 4 units..

temple had 1st 3 drives deep but couldn't score still see this as close game IMO.. strange game but really like this 2H play.. Not so much on game play so hope to push minus juice..
 
tee*dub said:
rolling with:

Temple -2.5 2H, 4 units..

temple had 1st 3 drives deep but couldn't score still see this as close game IMO.. strange game but really like this 2H play.. Not so much on game play so hope to push minus juice..
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ditto. :shake:
 
Didnt watch a second of it butkinda felt that Ohio would take the 1st H so expected them to be down . Probably should have taken +2 but kept my game wager at -3 relatively small so I could add if I was right so Temple 2nd H
 
SportsNut said:
Didnt watch a second of it butkinda felt that Ohio would take the 1st H so expected them to be down . Probably should have taken +2 but kept my game wager at -3 relatively small so I could add if I was right so Temple 2nd H
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Yep, lots of outs for you with temple -2.5 2H.. Smart playing bro:shake:
 
2-0 on the night , up 8 units:smiley_acbe:

Makes it 8 in a row in CFB; +32 units in the stretch...:hammer::hammer:

Been a pretty good long stretch in all sports.. Know the correction is coming,always does, but right now seeing it pretty good. Running pretty consistent well over 60% :4_12_12:
 
tee*dub said:
Been a pretty good long stretch in all sports.. Know the correction is coming,always does, but right now seeing it pretty good.
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But 8 games is not a big portion of your total amount of bets placed in a cfb season, so I wouldn't expect regression to hit like a bag of bricks. Would you?
 
Blue_Chip said:
But 8 games is not a big portion of your total amount of bets placed in a cfb season, so I wouldn't expect regression to hit like a bag of bricks. Would you?
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That is a well thought out comment.

Ya I was pretty brutal early in CFB, part of this was probably a slight correction of the bad breaks I got early... But most of it is picking good spots.. Been at this awhile and through lots of streaks.. This one is substantial in all sports bro.. Over 70% in MLB for a long stretch.. Around 65% in NFL for over 12 months and now getting real good results in CFB which is probably my third best sport... What I am saying Blue is this is not sustainable in the long run. I would tail with caution folks.. I am due to get some bad breaks.. Or maybe those come in 2009:4_12_12:

It is a learning process for all.. I'll say it again.. There is more talent on this site than any site anywhere and there is no bullshit here.. I learn more than I provide. The day that flips I will probably disappear. Don't see that happening..:cheers:
 
each bet is an independent event, and i know you will continue to cap games in the same manner that has given you an edge for years.. so i say fuck the correction.. keep rolling
 
tee*dub said:
2-0 on the night , up 8 units:smiley_acbe:

Makes it 8 in a row in CFB; +32 units in the stretch...:hammer::hammer:

Been a pretty good long stretch in all sports.. Know the correction is coming,always does, but right now seeing it pretty good. Running pretty consistent well over 60% :4_12_12:
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An angel was on our side tonight with Temple, I'll take W's anyway possible.. :smiley_acbe:
 
Blue_Chip said:
each bet is an independent event, and i know you will continue to cap games in the same manner that has given you an edge for years.. so i say fuck the correction.. keep rolling
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An edge is 57%.. 70% is fucked up and will be corrected... Part of this is keeping a realistic outlook.. No one maintains the streak I am on is all I am saying.. Especially the length of it. Diminishing returns...

Some will take this as a bs comment but here it is-- the fact that I do not think maintaining this roll is possible--- makes it more likely I can maintain the roll..

The key is being selective.. I do not make plays that I think will hit 55% of the time.. Really don't, that is the truth.. Those are no plays..:cheers: Blue Chip-- you are taking a very cerebral approach to this gig.. That is a very good sign.. Take emotion out and this becomes much easier.... a loss is a single event among a string of 10,000 plays. Trust me, I learned that lesson the hard way. Its funny actually because people who say "don't chase" often leave great value games on the table... For example, I am on temple -3 and they are down 10 at half.. Many people look at my second half play as "throwing good money after bad" or a chase play.. I look at it as an independent event. And cap it as such. Difficult to do but not when you consider each bet as one of 10,000.. So my point is, just because your buddy says you are chasing, tell him to fuck off if you think the independent event has good value.. So my point is this-- sometimes people who "quit chasing" are leaving huge value bets on the table.. Difficult to explain but some will understand..:cheers:
 
RambleOn said:
Fortunate. :shake:
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Not taking anything away from you with that comment. If luck wasn't involved, good or bad, all good cappers would win all the time and all bad cappers would lose all the time. We all know that's not how it works.

I'm glad the luck was on OUR side tonight. I had Temple -3 as well. :shake:
 
tee*dub said:
It is a learning process for all.. I'll say it again.. There is more talent on this site than any site anywhere and there is no bullshit here.. I learn more than I provide. The day that flips I will probably disappear. Don't see that happening..
Click to expand...

while YOU might read and learn from others, some of US read and learn from YOU....

it will all come full circle at some point and that's the precise reason most of us are here at CTG.... :shake:


keep on, keepin' on tee! :cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
An edge is 57%.. 70% is fucked up and will be corrected... Part of this is keeping a realistic outlook.. No one maintains the streak I am on is all I am saying.. Especially the length of it. Diminishing returns...

Some will take this as a bs comment but here it is-- the fact that I do not think maintaining this roll is possible--- makes it more likely I can maintain the roll..

The key is being selective.. I do not make plays that I think will hit 55% of the time.. Really don't, that is the truth.. Those are no plays..:cheers: Blue Chip-- you are taking a very cerebral approach to this gig.. That is a very good sign.. Take emotion out and this becomes much easier.... a loss is a single event among a string of 10,000 plays. Trust me, I learned that lesson the hard way. Its funny actually because people who say "don't chase" often leave great value games on the table... For example, I am on temple -3 and they are down 10 at half.. Many people look at my second half play as "throwing good money after bad" or a chase play.. I look at it as an independent event. And cap it as such. Difficult to do but not when you consider each bet as one of 10,000.. So my point is, just because your buddy says you are chasing, tell him to fuck off if you think the independent event has good value.. So my point is this-- sometimes people who "quit chasing" are leaving huge value bets on the table.. Difficult to explain but some will understand..:cheers:
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T-Dub, Couldn't have said it any better myself man, I always find myself talking myself IN and OUT of plays based on games that do not have anything to do with one another (other than fuckin with my confidence). If a bettor is able to independently bet a single bet and take the outcome and continue firing without hesitation, there will be more winners than losers in the long run IMO...

You on a sick roll, dont stop rolling.. mucho gracias hombre :tiphat:
 
tee*dub said:
An edge is 57%.. 70% is fucked up and will be corrected... Part of this is keeping a realistic outlook.. No one maintains the streak I am on is all I am saying.. Especially the length of it. Diminishing returns...

Some will take this as a bs comment but here it is-- the fact that I do not think maintaining this roll is possible--- makes it more likely I can maintain the roll..

The key is being selective.. I do not make plays that I think will hit 55% of the time.. Really don't, that is the truth.. Those are no plays..:cheers: Blue Chip-- you are taking a very cerebral approach to this gig.. That is a very good sign.. Take emotion out and this becomes much easier.... a loss is a single event among a string of 10,000 plays. Trust me, I learned that lesson the hard way. Its funny actually because people who say "don't chase" often leave great value games on the table... For example, I am on temple -3 and they are down 10 at half.. Many people look at my second half play as "throwing good money after bad" or a chase play.. I look at it as an independent event. And cap it as such. Difficult to do but not when you consider each bet as one of 10,000.. So my point is, just because your buddy says you are chasing, tell him to fuck off if you think the independent event has good value.. So my point is this-- sometimes people who "quit chasing" are leaving huge value bets on the table.. Difficult to explain but some will understand..:cheers:
Click to expand...

I understand ya, and 70% is unrealistic in the long run, but let's see how long this roll takes ya.

:popcorn::cheers:
 
Tee you are on top of the godammn game-----

You are being selective, picking good games---

i agree with Blue Chip's statement about each event being independent-- However I agree that 70% is assuming you get all the breaks and no bad luck-- maybe 60% is achievable?

You hit it on the head its all about EMOTION- whether stocks, marriage or driving, lose the emotion you will always win- ever met a poker player who shows emotion or a good lawyer?

gambling is all about checking the emotions out at the door

This is why casinos try to giev people alcohol to tamper with their emotions and put them in a vulnerable state of emotions which will result in poor decisions.
 
tee*dub said:
Yep, lots of outs for you with temple -2.5 2H.. Smart playing bro:shake:
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Played the over as a situational based on a low total getting bet lower witha low scoring 1st H . I have to roll with it when I see the home team I expect to comeback and win the game SU . Unfortunately the 3rd Q was a waste but thought absolute worst case the 2nd H saw 13 pts with a 17.5 total . Temple really needs 2 TDs and would expect 3 scores for Temple to win and cover the game still. So while 17 is a possibility with the FG issues thought 21 could be had despite being shutout at half and if only 17 then would expect at least a FG from Ohio U .

Good comment on the so called chase element. If you cap a game a certain way especially if your playing selective spots then one bad half cant make you rethink a play that much . Sure its not easy to fire again at the pot so to speak but it was rather easy from my standpoint when its -2 or -2.5 cause all I need is that winless Temple team to outplay Ohio U in the 2nd Half and it becomes a seperate play . key is knowing how the game was bet and how the half line was set to decipher if there is any bait being tossed at us. With temple looking terrible in the 1st H and down 10-0 its no suprise a soft number was thrown out because -3 probably gets all Ohio U flow and they dont want that .

Especially in football few non elite teams manage to win both halves especially on the road.

Great work again and happy I paid -130 for Temple to get it down to -3 even -3.5 would have worked I could have rested easier in OT if it got there and not to be paranoid but there was a huge concern about that XP to make it 14-10 .

Great point about trying to play just your higher level plays . I to often waste plays on mid level feels that I should really pass on and look at retarded % ratios without the correct profit margin attached to it . Amount of games played has no role in success its the amount of good decisions on what games to play . If its 10-12 some weeks then so be it but if its four then dont look for 6 or 8 near plays to sort of force .....:shake:
 
Good point a trend I have noticed is quite easy. THese MAC teams midweek games pits one team getting out to a lead over the other team. Usually the home team is trailing at half--

But when the dog is up by a surprisiing margin at halftime simply take the other team like TEMPLE, as the team leading is not good enough to sustain the lead and barely good enough to hold a 10 to 13 point halftime lead--

As NUT said the mickey mouse teams cannot hold leads and if up take vs them as they become the favorite then based on ahalftime cheap lead.
 
Pretty good discussion in here.. Some good "Talkin Shop thread" type stuff.. Thanks guys for the compliments but again, not sure it is warranted.:cheers:
 
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