Tuesday Basesss

[E.T.G.]

100-78-5 +$3,415.60

Will update the record after the Mets game but figured I would get an early start here on the games for Tuesday. I actually have to do a few things with my life during the day and I wasn't doing shit today so I got a jump start on the games. A few notes from the 2 early games Monday. Paul Byrd continues to get crushed with hits, now giving up 39hits in his last 4 starts. The WhiteSUX are an unbackable team, they need change and they need it fast. You can't go from good to this bad and not make any changes at all.

Mets -114 / Dodgers +104

I am capping this game right now and the Monday game hasn't started however, I only need to see a little of that game before making a decision here. I can get into the whole LHP thing again, but by now everyone should be fully aware of that stat for the Mets.

Maine L3 = 1-1, 2.84era, 19ip, 15h, 4bb, 17k
Maine away = 5-0, 1.85era, 6gs, 39ip, 21h, 20bb, 40k... Batters hitting .164 off him and .221 overall.
Career vs. LAD = 0-1, 3.60era, 1g, 5ip, 6h, 2er, 3bb, 4k

The one career start vs. LAD doesn't bother me, he only gave up 2er so if he duplicated that in the game Tuesday, I would like my chances..Maine has been beaten up only 1 time this yr in 12starts, a 5ip-8h-5er performance vs. the Yanks, a much better offense than the Dodgers.

Kuo on the other hand has pitched a grand total of 13innings this yr, started 2 games, both away, and faced Pitt and SD, the #27 and #29 offenses in the league. He has recorded 1 out in Dodger stadium this yr. The price is too cheap to not take the Mets here, I think Maine and the Mets should be more like -135. Mets are 8-4 when Maine pitches as well.

Situational wise, I want to see how the Monday game plays out, which team gets out of the funk first...If the Mets win, good shot I play them again here vs. Kuo. If the Mets lose, really good shot I play them here vs Kuo. I want to see if the Dodgers have any life in their bats as well. Basically I think there is a really good shot the Mets beat Kuo, he is over matched, I just need to see something out of the Mets bats vs. Wolf.

Lean to the Mets-114

Angels -130 / Reds +120:

Last time I bet Escobar, he let me down vs the Orioles but I am ready to board the train again.

Escobar L3 = 2-1, 2.63era, 24ip, 18h, 8bb, 15k
Escobar away = 2-1, 4.76era, 3g, 17ip, 18h, 3bb, 12k.. Batters hitting .265 off him and .227 overall.

Few things I want to note here. Escobar appears to have a shit era on the road but the number is a little misleading. He has only started 3 games on the road so the 2ip-8er game vs. the Mariners really skews his numbers. His other 2 starts came against NYY (7ip, 6h, 1er, 1bb, 8k) and vs. CHW (7.2ip, 4h, 2er, 1bb, 3k). The Angels are 8-3 when he pitches.

Bronson Arroyo, I just don't know what the problem is with this guy but he has been outright terrible, there is no sugar coating it and this price is too cheap to not fade him and the Reds vs. a Superior team.

Arroyo L3 games: 0-3, 11.49era, 15.2ip, 27h, 5bb, 7k
Arroyo at home: 1-2, 7.36era, 5g, 25.2ip, 31h, 13bb, 22k.... Batters hitting .292 off him and .282 overall

Arroyo has faced the Angels in 5games from his days with the RSox...

Anderson = .375 in 8ab, Figgins = .308 in 13ab, Vlad = .333 in 12ab, Kotchman - .444 in 9ab, Matthews = .111 in 9ab, Hillenbrand = .167 in 24ab, Cabrera = .111 in 9ab

The Reds are 3-10 when Arroyo pitches and although they just took a series from the Indians and have won 3 of their last 4, this team is not getting hot though so don't be fooled, they just are not very good at all.

Bullpen wise, advantage goes to Angels.
Home field means nothing here as the Reds are 12-19 at home.
Arroyo has been roughed up by St. Louie, Hous, Pitt, and Wash in 4 consecutive starts.

Angels vs. RHP this yr are batting .282overall, .255 on the road, and .315 in their last 10games.
Reds vs. RHP this yr are batting .252overall, .265 at home, and .254 in their last 10games.

Angels average 5.6runs/game in their last 9 (I took out the 16run game vs. Twins).
Reds average 3.9runs/game in their last 10.

Lastly AL reigns supreme over NL and one of the AL best should take out one of the NL worst here in this game.

Lean to the Angels -130


I very well could be happy playing those two games but I am going to look into the other lines that caught my eyes. Other games and breakdowns to come on the following:

Padres / DRays
A's / Astros
Braves / Twins
BlueJays/ Giants
Cards / Royals
Mariners/ Cubs

 

[Ray]

I wonder why odd is high on LAA? Shouldn't it be between 1.5 to 1.6?

 

[Ray]

Also like Indians tomoro.

 

[E.T.G.]

I wonder why odd is high on LAA? Shouldn't it be between 1.5 to 1.6?

I don't know why it is so low to be honest


I don't know about the Indians, Marlins can hit the ball and Carmona has had his struggles lately. Olsen doesn't work late into games though

 

[STEED]

gl brotha

 

[E.T.G.]

Thanks Steed


Tigers -1 $695 to Win $539.84:
Tigers ML $438 to Win $257.14
Tigers RL $257 to Win $282.70

I don't have to go into much detail here, it is a fade of the Brewers in interleague play (2-9 L11) vs. a better team, the brewers on the road, and Suppan in general, a play on the Tigers in interleague play (21-7 L28), along with getting an ace for the Tigers (8-4 when he pitches).

Suppan has given up 4er in 6 of his last 7 starts.
Suppan away: 3-4, 4.17era, 7g, 45.1ip, 49h, 14bb, 22h

Tigers vs. Suppan: Ordonez = .395 in 43ab, IRod = .500 in 12ab, Casey = .333 in 15ab, Guillen = .429 in 7ab, Inge = .357 in 14ab, Infante = .286 in 7ab, Perez = .333 in 18ab.

Brewers are 12-17 on the road (1-7 last 8 road games)
Tigers are 17-12 at home.

Detroit took 2/3 from Brewers last yr in Milk, this yr I am expecting the same or a sweep. Tigers are crushing the ball again and winners of 4 of their last 5. Brewers get steamrolled here.

 

[Satyr]

Love both the Tigers and the Halos. Can't back the Mets right now, despite the pitching mismatch.

GL tonight :cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

Satyr- I agree with Tigers/Halos...Mets ahh, they drive me nuts.



Alright guys, I added money onto the Detroit game, basically I am really confident they win this game, thats all there is to it.

I am on the Mutts, I will not back them 2morrow win or lose but man they better wake up.

For the Halos, I am going through some more numbers to see if I can find anything to throw me off this game.


Plays so far:

Tigers -1 $695 to Win $539.84:
Tigers ML $438 to Win $257.14
Tigers RL $257 to Win $282.70

Mets ML $548 to Win $470.94

 

[Santacapper]

Good stuff as always ETG, GL

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL today Green - looks like some solid plays. Mets just scare me because I keep thinking they are going to win and they just dont do it.

 

[gambaholic]

hey green, I'm with you on the tigers and angels but I also got the phillies tied up in a 3 parlay. what do you think of the phillies? Thanks and BOL today.

 

[The Farm]

Gl ...will Be Drunk As Hell At The Tigers Game

 

[E.T.G.]

Alright, I am done overthinking baseball for the day. I am a bit unhappy I could of had the Angels -126 last night on the ML and now I am getting raped at -152 on the ML along with getting raped on the RL but thats what you get for taking your sweet ass time to bet. I said in Satyr thread that the Reds have literally killed Arroyo's confidence and arm. If he comes out and pitches a gem today, what am I going to do? He gets beat up by St Louie, Hou, Pitt, & Washington in consecutive starts but shuts down the Angels?

Arroyo started the yr fine, was just a victim on run support then after a 8ip-10h-3r-1er-2bb-6k LOSS vs. San Diego where he threw 129pitches he has gone on to get toasted in his next four starts giving up 6,6,8,6 er.

Before the San Diego game he threw 120 and 117 pitches so he stringed together 3 straight starts, all on 5days rest, of an average of 122pitches... Last start he threw 119pitches, imo the Reds are killing his guy and that is why vs. a pretty good lineup he will face some trouble today.

Angels just 16-15 on the road and that bothers me as well but 7-1 in last 8 Interleague games.

Angels are hitting the ball right now though, have scored 4 or more runs in their last 8 games.

I am counting on Pablo Escobar to keep the Reds lineup down, I don't want to be trading runs here. If it comes down to it, Angels should be able to hammer away at the Reds bullpen.

I would hate to have this shit team like this take my money and it will bother me to no end if they do, but I really think the Angels win. If they win by 1, I will take my push, I am just trying to get value so thats is why I am not hitting the ML only, If I bet this game last night, it would have been ML only.

Angels -1 $541.80 to Win $430
Angels ML $326.80 to Win $215
Angels RL $215 to Win $215



FINAL PLAYS - Tuesday

Angels -1 $541.80 to Win $430
Tigers -1 $695 to Win $539.84
Mets ML $548 to Win $470.94

 

[B.A.R.]

Sexy thread as always...

lets get dem Tigers in

 

[E.T.G.]

Santa - Best of luck to you

Renew - If the Mutts don't beat Kuo, I will personally take the 45minute drive out to the Bronx this wkend and slap Willie and his Mets myself.

Gambaholic - I am a Hamels homer so I am going to say that it is a good play, it is a little out of my range price wise and I felt stronger about my other 3 plays. Phillies don't give me enough consistency but the WSux are 100% unbackable. I also don't want my money losing to them but the Phillies are 7-1 in Hamels last 8 and the WSux struggle more with LHP than they do RHP, they are beat up, lack offense, lack a bullpen, not much more else there is to say there.

Farm - Best of Luck

 

[hile75]

gl tonite green, mets might be my fav of all the sides tonite

 

[E.T.G.]

Thanks Bar....I feel pretty confident that the Tigers give these guys a beating today. There is no reason for Suppan to not give up atleast his normal 4runs in 5innings. GL today..


I am out for the day, back around game time..

GOOD LUCK TO ALL

 

[E.T.G.]

gl tonite green, mets might be my fav of all the sides tonite

Hile - Maybe I jumped the gun last night with them but still they broke down and they had their chance to jump on the Dodgers anyway. I like the play but I am just real pissed at this team right now because they show no consistency either. There is NO reason for them not to hammer Kuo today though. Guy has recorded 1 out in Dodger stadium, started 2 games vs 2 of the worse offenses in baseball. GL today

 

[Rug Rat]

Good luck with tonight's selections Green, particularly with those Mutts. :shake:

 

[phillyfan18]

Good luck green.

 

[Troutman]

GL BRO...I like the Mutts as well.

 

[Rug Rat]

Well Green it's lookin' more and more like Phoso1 was correct afterall on his Dodger play afterall tonight and I certainly hope his post did, in fact, persuade some Met bettors to shy away as well. The LA Dodgers are not only a much better club but more importantly it's the fact that the Mutts are a vastly overrated ballclub. Too many overpaid players doing too little on a team filled with individual egos. They're a complete fuckin' joke and there's no denying it whatsoever. :down: NY Mets!

 

[tuck321]

I deny it. Mets are a very good team. They had a lot of injuries that screwed up team chemistry and now they are playing bad for a while. Week or so they will start hitting again and go on a money making run. This happens to every team. Review what people were saying about the Yankees. Ride heat fade cold and avoid condemning a team because of a stage.

 

[JRose5]

Fukin Angels. I cant mess with that team atleast until they get back home. Every angle you had seemed correct. GL Bro.