MODS, I just want to comment on the quality of board you run here. I read the site across the street daily because there are some quality thoughts there if you shift through the bullshit but the stuff going on there now is just mind blowing. People got their panties in a bunch cause Buffet Gambler stopped posting plays and some posters hit a cold steak...There are cappers having tremendous yrs there and they get ripped apart by clowns who blindly tail when they have a losing day. I am sorry but if you blindly tail someone you have no room for complaints. Those people capping owe them nothing and the shit over there is just too much. Seriously, great job regulating this place. Now onto the games..
Brewers -106: It might be fun for some to fade the Brew Crew but that shit stops here. Yes they blew a game in the 8th inning that I got the chance to benefit from but they are not a bad team by any means. A usually reliable bullpen broke down in the 8th but this is a young team and I think young teams have short memories. To add to this, don't think this team went on this road trip w/ the Mets and Phillies to not make a statement in the NL. They havent lost 3 games in a row since back in the beginning of April when they dropped 3 to LA/Cubs in the first wk of the yr...Overall dating back to last yr and including Monday, Brewers have won 6/7 games from the Phillies. They are another scrappy team and they throw out the better Pitcher in this game. Vargas, his career vs. the Phillies hasnt been stellar but this yr he has been pretty reliable. Adam Eaton is a liability on the mound, no way around it.
Vargas last 6 starts: Wsh = 6ip, 4h, 1er....Pitt =6ip, 4h, 0er...@Hou =5ip, 4h, 0er...@CHC =4ip, 6h, 4er...Pitt=6ip, 5h, 1er...@Fla =5ip, 5h, 1er...
Eaton last 5 starts: @Zona =7ip, 7h, 3er...@SF = 5ip, 8h, 6er... Fla = 4.1ip, 10h, 7er... Hous =6ip, 7h, 4er..@Wash =6ip, 4h, 4er.
Really Eaton has not seen that much of the Brewer hitters: Counsell =.385 in 13ab, Estrada =.600 in 5ab, Hall =.200 in 5ab, Jenkins = .364 in 11ab..
Vargas who is 1-3 w/ 6.49 in career vs. Phillies over 43ip is not facing the same Phillies team that has cause him trouble either.. Burrell = .267 in 15ab, Nunez = .067 in 15ab, Rowand =.250 in 4ab, Rollins = .316 in 19ab, Utley = .500 in 6ab.
Despite the disaster last night I have to give the Brewer bullpen the edge here.
Mets -140: All this talk about Zambrano's mechanics doesnt really do much for me. Lee could be in the game tomorrow but Maine has just been fine this yr. Zambrano has put together 1 really solid effort this yr vs. St Louie. Other wise he has 1 inning that haunts him. He just hasn't been the pitcher that was hyped coming into the season and I think he might hype himself up too much in the game vs. the Mets. Maine on the other hand has been pretty much lights out this yr..Last start Maine gave up the most runs he has all season, 3, vs the Giants in a game he walked 6 batters. He has gone atleast 6ip in every start but the first one since Philly and this is his first start at home since 4/23 so I think he will be happy to pitch in front of his home crowd. Bullpen edge def. goes to the Mets here in this game..Zambrao has had some decent success vs most of the Mets hitters: Beltran = .143 in 7ab, Delgado = .182 in 11ab, Reyes = 1.67 in 6ab, Wright = .167 in 6ab, LoDuca = .294 in 17ab, Green = .250 in 8ab, Chcez = .357 in 14ab. Maine has only faced the Cubs once and that was last yr where he went 8ip for the W.. Still undecided on this game really but think if I can get a better # on the Mets it might be too hard to pass up.
Reds +104: This follows a similiar theme as last week. The Reds win when Harang pitches. They are now 6-2 in his 8 starts and that display of offense tonight vs Maddux was terrible. They get to face another old pitcher but I think this one is a little more over the hill than Maddux. Both pitchers are 3-1 vs. their respective opposing teams. There are always concerns with the Reds heavy LH lineup vs. LHP... Wells has been hit for atleast 3 runs in everystart this yr minus one and hit for 4er or more in 4/6 starts. Harang has been hit for 5er in his last 3 starts so that is def a worry and he has benefited from run support in his starts. Reds bullpen is a liability as well. The lineup Harang will face tomorrow doesnt have that much history vs. him: Cameron =.308 in 13ab, B.Giles = .250 in 12ab, M.Giles = .250 in 12ab, Greene = .250 in 8ab.
Orioles -112: Ahh the bullpen concerns, I can't complain if I decide to play this game but I had to take a deeper look getting a shot at a quality pitcher in Cabrera vs a AAA callup. I am fully aware of what Litsch has done in AAA but look at what Lincecum did as well.. I think he gets a welcome to the big leagues type welcome from the Orioles. Cabrera could be a yr or two away and I have said that before. His last start vs. TB he was lit up for 6er. In a previous start this yr vs. BJ he gave up 4er over 6.1ip for a ND. As far as Litsch goes..
Litsch, 22, a 24th-round selection by the Jays in the 2004 June draft, has been having a sensational season at Double-A New Hampshire. In six starts, Litsch is 5-1 with a 0.96 ERA. In 37 2/3 innings, the right-hander has allowed 22 hits, walked seven and struck out 28.
I don't buy into those #'s too much because AAA is different than MLB. We will see how I feel in the morning on this game but expect the line to rise.
Yankes -146: Danks while he has been pretty good this yr for a Rookie, I think runs into trouble w/ the Yankee offense... Granted the Yankees have not been good this yr, its no secret, but the WSox have not been either. A rather anemic team on offense with out one of their best hitters vs. Mussina. I don't get to bet the Yankees a lot but here is a situation I might not be able to pass up. I would like 6ip and 2er from Moose here in this game. Thome is a big bat out of the lineup that hurts the WSox. I expect this line to rise so this decision will be made soon.
Mariners -120: At first glance I had to look at this game because it would be one of the cheapest lines you see King Felix at. After looking a little deeper I am not so sure anymore:
While on the DL, Hernandez had two scheduled starts scratched: May 4 in New York and May 9 at Detroit. Hernandez said his goal is to throw 85 pitches against the Angels on Tuesday. Seattle manager Mike Hargrove is thinking more conservatively. "He probably won't go (more) than 75-80 pitches," Hargrove said.
You have to figure that if he throws 15pitches an inning that is 5 innings of baseball from King Felix and than you must leave it up to the Mariner bullpen for 4 innings of bases.
A's -1.5 +100: I was going to give this play a hard look win or lose in Mondays game. Kennedy was the pitcher in the 17-3 beatdown last wk and quite frankly I don't think the Royals can win 3 in a row on the road. A's historically own the Royals as well..Bannister has worked 6ip only once this yr while the other two starts were 4.1 and 4.2ip. Kennedy has flown under the radar for the most part this yr but has turned out quality start after quality start.. He has allowed no more than 3er in any start this yr..
At first glance I really liked this card, I have not played more than 4 games in a day since 4/10 where I went 3-2 but Tuesday could shape up for a big card.
