Tuesday Bases w/writeups......

Y

YesSir

Brian Windhorst
24-15 (+26.3 UNITS)​

***all plays are based on 4 units unless other wise noted***​

What is up everyone? I hope everyone had a great Monday and are all ready to roll today. Though I have a lean in the both of the early games, I really like one play:​

CHC/Houston UNDER 9​

Houston will have their second road game of the year when they face Jason Marquis and the Chicago Cubs. Houston has been struggling all year. It is never a good start to a season if you get swept by the Pirates at your Home Opening weekend. They followed that up by winning one of three to the Cards. After a 5-3 win last night, they sit at 2-5. ​

What is wrong with this Astro team? You can look no further than their offense. In all games: 2 runs, 2 runs, 4 runs, 2 runs, 5 runs, 1 run, 5 runs. They are averaging a bustly 3 runs per game, while batting .230! Out of their 7 games, they have face 4 righties. Team success against righties? Not hardly- in those games their stats drop to a .211 average and only have scored 2.5 runs per. ​

The Astros starting pitching has done pretty well throughout early April. As a staff, The Astros are only giving up 4.3 runs per game and teams are hitting .241! Teams OBP is also hovering under .300!​

Chris Sampson will get the nod for Houston. Sampson has only given up 1 ER in his last 17 + innings pitched. Marquis looked good in his first game of the season, stifiling Reds hitters. The most impressive thing about his 6 inning performance was his WHIP, IMO. Marquis WHIP was 1.000. His WHIP was this low because he only gave up 4 hits and 2 BBS.​

The Cubs, like the Stros, have not really been knocking the cover off the ball. They are averaging 4.1 runs per game and have .263 ave. .263 is not horrendous BUT that is about the only way this group of inpatient hitters get on base. They have only drawn 19 BBs in 63 innings! They hit .277 against righties, but their runs per only rises to 4.2.​

So with all of this being said, why isn't everyone jumping on the under? IMO, peole are scared off by these struggling bullpens. ERAs- 5.00 for CHC and 5.10 for HOUS! Along with the pens, niether of these guys seems to last very deep into games. Does this really scare me? I do not really think that this is a very big deal. Why? Because both teams do have a quality guy in the pen or 2.​

Also, I feel that both pitchers will not get hit around- meaning that I do not see both offenses suddenly turning into the 95 Indians. Say Marquis gives up 4 runs in 6 innings. That usually sucks for an under 9 BUT it is very possible that the Cubs would be down 4-0 at that point. Not sure if you followed me there...Final Score 6-2 Stros​

I will have more later......BOL all:cheers: ​
 
Thanks Grind and Hunt :cheers:


Something I forgot to mention was the cold weather and swirling winds....
 
excellent writeup. I actually leaned the other side but you do make a case, I will lay off, wish you good luck. :cheers:
 
Detroit 5.4-4
UNDER 10

This game features two teams that have been up and down early this season. We have come to expect this with the Orioles, but many people thought The D would have come out stronger. Nate Robertson, last years stud(lol), gets to toe the rubber for the second time this year. In his first outting he went 5 2/3 giving up 2 ERs and 7 hits. The hits bother me more than anything in this matchup.

He usually goes around 6 innings so I am counting on the pen to hold on against a pesky Oriole lineup. When you first look at the Tigers pen, you might scare away from this play (5.49 ERA and 1.577 WHIP will do that). If you look further into the numbers though, you see that they have really not been that bad, especially of late. 9 of their 12 ERs were in the first two games of the season. On the road, which has been their L4 games, they have been phenominal (2.19 ERA 1.135 WHIP).

Anyways, back to Robertson:
He has dominated the Orioles of late. In his L3 against the O's, he has only given up 4 runs in 19.3 innings! I believe Robertson scatters 1 or 2 runs over 7 innings...

Offensively, the Tigs have struggled this year 4.2 runs per, 3 runs per on the road...Against righties they have hit a little better, averaging 4.8 per...then again they have faced a few good pitchers...

Lets look at Jaret Wright and the Orioles:
The Orioles have 4 losses and somehow have snuck out 3 wins. They really do not have much of anything that has stood out to me so far. They are averaging 4.7 runs per game but are only hitting .230. They have fared better against the 2 lefties they have faced: 5.5 runs but only .239 hitting.... Their OBP is .309 and has shrank under .300 at night.

Jaret Wright gets the nod. He got roughed up early in his first outting, only lasting 2.3 innings. He gave up 4 ER but it could have been much worse. Wright has really never been the same since his injuries in the late 90s with the Indians IMO. Yes, he did have that one fantastic year with ATL but has struggled since. Historically, he has done pretty well against Detroit(3.65 ERA in his last 10). Most of those game were with the Tribe, when they were crushing teams and when The D was losing 90-105 per.

Baltimore's pen is ok....They struggled a bit early but I think will be a mid pack pen. They are rested, only pitching 1.3 innings last night. I am not exactly sure what to expect from Wright. I think he can pitch well but I can also see him going 4 innings, giving up 6 runs. I think this will be a one-sided game....Detroit 7-2...


BOL all...might have one more not sure yet though :cheers:
 
Nice nit on the under. I hate being opposite you.

We are finally on one together. I like Detroit as well.

Best of luck my friend.
 
If all plays are 4 units, isn't 4 units basically 1 unit for you? lol
 
Killa said:
If all plays are 4 units, isn't 4 units basically 1 unit for you? lol
Click to expand...


it is easier for me to keep track of like this because I will usually throw a couple smaller plays(1 or 2 units) and 1 larger play (6ish).each day

Most of plays are 4 units, so by posting that at the top I do not have to write for the majority of my plays....ya see?
 
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