Game 5 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 10:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver
Making Sense of Things
It's tempting to dismiss Minnesota's chances of winning after it just lost two games at home, but let's take a step back.
Up 2-0, the Timberwolves had four days to absorb the ubiquitous adulation that the media was lavishing upon them.
This is where their youthful inexperience crept in: they could not handle the expectation and pressure.
My point is that Minnesota's two losses at home showed nothing about its capability of winning Game 5.
These two losses will be liberating. They'll play Game 5 with a more focused effort that replaces conceit with confidence and the feeling of pressure with intensity.
More specifically, better ball movement on offense and more energy on defense that leads to stronger rotations will be features of an overall better effort from the Timberwolves.
Over- and Underperformers
My main point here is that, in Game 4, Denver won by eight despite showing its very best at the same time that Minnesota looked bad overall.
Before the series began, Minnesota's bench was expected to be a strength.
In Denver, we saw what it can do.
On the other side, Nuggets bench players overperformed in Game 4.
The team as a whole overperformed – its efficiency was ridiculous.
Nikola Jokic shot beyond himself inside the arc, defusing Minnesota's interior congestion with an unusually efficient mid-range game.
Aaron Gordon was even more ridiculous.
Conversely, for the Timberwolves, Karl-Anthony Towns and Nickeil Alexander-Walker let them down, although we've seen that Towns – who was distracted on Mother's Day on what is an emotional occasion for him personally – can handle Gordon's on-ball defense and that Alexander-Walker can perform much better offensively.
Strategy
Minnesota is going to make adjustments, which will be easier by Denver's upcoming decline in shooting efficiency.
The Timberwolves cannot double Jokic so much. They seemed to know this in the first two games in Denver.
They have to force him to try to be a scorer instead of a passer who gets his teammates going.
One strategy, though, should still leave Gordon open.
Four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert will want to help off of Gordon, as he characteristically likes to function as a roamer who executes effective help-side defense.
Historically, Gordon tends to decline in a game following a strong performance.
One should expect the Timberwolves to make effective adjustments, because they have not lost three games in a row all year: they excel at righting the ship.
Offense and Defense
In Minnesota, Denver's defense looked much better than it is.
The Nuggets relied on star Anthony Edwards' supporting cast being non-impactful, such that they could practically defend five-on-three.
With the supporting cast playing closer to its capabilities, the Timberwolves become stronger as an entire offensive unit.
Whereas bad offense often bleeds into bad defense, good offense gives players the confidence and energy to defend tightly.
Minnesota might do some more switching on ball-screens, but the main thing is to intensify ball-pressure on Jamal Murray and to limit Jokic's capacity as the roll man. We saw Minnesota do these things very well in Denver.
The Timberwolves do have excellent on-ball defenders, including Jaden McDaniels, who looked excellent against Phoenix star Devin Booker, and Alexander-Walker, who looked great against the likes of Bradley Beal.
These are defenders who have cultivated a well-deserved reputation and who remain capable of making Murray uncomfortable and undercutting his rapport with Jokic.
Takeaway
Even if Michael Porter Jr. wakes up for Denver, the bench will be a strength for Minnesota again, and Karl-Anthony Towns especially will bounce back, returning to his characteristic efficiency.
Stronger defense, produced by greater effort and perhaps some adjustments, from the Timberwolves will complement their improved offense by again limiting Denver's scoring output.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +4 at -105 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston
Cleveland's Road Trend
The Cavaliers, under their current coaching staff, have covered one road playoff game in seven tries.
Their shooting, as has been the case this regular season, declines tremendously in road games.
Even with a healthy Donovan Mitchell and even while Mitchell is excelling, they repeatedly struggle this year to exceed 95 points.
They caught Boston, in Game 2, being unfocused – the Celtics also lapsed in Game 2 against Miami.
But Boston's defense has returned to form, holding Cleveland to 93 points in Game 3 and holding a Cleveland offense that was a less predictable new-look unit without Mitchell to 102 points in Game 5, despite Max Strus' characteristic shooting prowess at home.
With or without Mitchell, Cleveland will be a team that Boston is very prepared for.
Close-Out Game for Boston
History also suggests that the Celtics will be locked-in in this situation.
In their last close-out games in which they won, the Celtics beat Miami 118-84 for their biggest win of that series; they beat the 76ers last year 112-88 for their second-biggest win of that series; they won at Atlanta and likewise covered the spread.
Difference in Firepower
The spread might seem large given how close the final score was in Game 4, but Boston also won Game 1 by 25 despite Mitchell playing.
Without a healthy Mitchell, and without the team shooting well – Strus, for example, is shooting awfully on the road this postseason – there just aren't a lot of paths for Cleveland to reach even 90 points, especially since Boston now knows well what a no-Mitchell Cleveland offense looks like.
Besides Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and Caris LeVert, we have a bunch of single-digit scorers.
Conversely, Boston is one of the NBA's top two three-point shooting teams.
Jayson Tatum is finally figuring things out scoring-wise. He is clearly very tough for any defender to guard. His step-back is so nasty partly because he is very dangerous driving to the basket, although he also shoots well.
He and Jaylen Brown will easily be two of the top three scorers in the game. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are shooting great from deep.
Payton Pritchard, who admirably runs the offense, gets teammates involved, and scores in isolation, will come dangerously close to outscoring Cleveland's bench by himself.
With All-NBA Defensive Team selections Holiday and White, Boston has the personnel to limit Cleveland's preferred scoring options besides Mobley, while the Celtics boast reliable 25-to-35-point scorers – in Tatum and Brown – and consistent firepower largely in the form of excellent shooters surrounding them.
Best Bet: Celtics -15.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center
Dallas' Defense
Dallas is 4.5-point underdogs because it is playing on the road.
But the Mavericks have shown throughout these playoffs, as when they held the Clippers to 93 points twice and when they beat the Thunder by nine, that their tough defense travels. One indeed says that "defense travels."
The Mavericks have improved tremendously on defense this season because they have a very good perimeter defender in Derrick Jones Jr., excellent rim protection that is allowing the fewest field goals and the lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket in these playoffs, and at least one big in Daniel Gafford who is comfortable guarding along the perimeter and in space.
Defensively, Dallas has done a great job against Chet Holmgren, limiting him despite his versatility.
Partly for this reason, the Mavericks held OKC to 101 points in Game 3 before holding the Thunder to 100 points in Game 4 despite Lu Dort having his best playoff game this season.
I just don't see how OKC scores much at all outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
My point here is that Dallas' consistently solid defense will carry over to Game 5, and yet the Mavericks are dogged because they are the road team.
Luka and Kyrie
Dallas stayed within four of the Thunder in Game 4 despite Luka Doncic being off offensively.
However, Doncic is excellent at bouncing back after such an inefficient performance, as evident in Game 2 of this series and Game 4 of last series.
He is so hard to keep off his spots. His mid-range game remains excellent, and he might shoot well from three again on top of that. It's hard to contain him in consecutive times. He is, after all, an elite scorer.
Kyrie Irving, in Game 4, disappeared again, although we've seen him succeed consistently as an efficient scorer whose quickness off the bounce and other traits make him dangerous, especially with defenses often haplessly focusing on Luka. Game 1 in this series and his last series showed what he can do.
Dallas' Offense
The Mavs have too much physicality inside especially with their stronger bigs dealing with the skinny Holmgren. PJ Washington will continue his coming out party, not least because the Mavs have so many good scorers to defend. He is a versatile scorer who is sizzling from deep.
Luka and Kyrie, in sum, have an excellent supporting cast, whereas Dallas' toughness on defense is too much for everybody besides OKC's one significant scorer to overcome.
Their free throw shooting, which was absurdly bad on Monday, will also improve.
Best Bet: Mavericks +4.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 10:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver
Making Sense of Things
It's tempting to dismiss Minnesota's chances of winning after it just lost two games at home, but let's take a step back.
Up 2-0, the Timberwolves had four days to absorb the ubiquitous adulation that the media was lavishing upon them.
This is where their youthful inexperience crept in: they could not handle the expectation and pressure.
My point is that Minnesota's two losses at home showed nothing about its capability of winning Game 5.
These two losses will be liberating. They'll play Game 5 with a more focused effort that replaces conceit with confidence and the feeling of pressure with intensity.
More specifically, better ball movement on offense and more energy on defense that leads to stronger rotations will be features of an overall better effort from the Timberwolves.
Over- and Underperformers
My main point here is that, in Game 4, Denver won by eight despite showing its very best at the same time that Minnesota looked bad overall.
Before the series began, Minnesota's bench was expected to be a strength.
In Denver, we saw what it can do.
On the other side, Nuggets bench players overperformed in Game 4.
The team as a whole overperformed – its efficiency was ridiculous.
Nikola Jokic shot beyond himself inside the arc, defusing Minnesota's interior congestion with an unusually efficient mid-range game.
Aaron Gordon was even more ridiculous.
Conversely, for the Timberwolves, Karl-Anthony Towns and Nickeil Alexander-Walker let them down, although we've seen that Towns – who was distracted on Mother's Day on what is an emotional occasion for him personally – can handle Gordon's on-ball defense and that Alexander-Walker can perform much better offensively.
Strategy
Minnesota is going to make adjustments, which will be easier by Denver's upcoming decline in shooting efficiency.
The Timberwolves cannot double Jokic so much. They seemed to know this in the first two games in Denver.
They have to force him to try to be a scorer instead of a passer who gets his teammates going.
One strategy, though, should still leave Gordon open.
Four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert will want to help off of Gordon, as he characteristically likes to function as a roamer who executes effective help-side defense.
Historically, Gordon tends to decline in a game following a strong performance.
One should expect the Timberwolves to make effective adjustments, because they have not lost three games in a row all year: they excel at righting the ship.
Offense and Defense
In Minnesota, Denver's defense looked much better than it is.
The Nuggets relied on star Anthony Edwards' supporting cast being non-impactful, such that they could practically defend five-on-three.
With the supporting cast playing closer to its capabilities, the Timberwolves become stronger as an entire offensive unit.
Whereas bad offense often bleeds into bad defense, good offense gives players the confidence and energy to defend tightly.
Minnesota might do some more switching on ball-screens, but the main thing is to intensify ball-pressure on Jamal Murray and to limit Jokic's capacity as the roll man. We saw Minnesota do these things very well in Denver.
The Timberwolves do have excellent on-ball defenders, including Jaden McDaniels, who looked excellent against Phoenix star Devin Booker, and Alexander-Walker, who looked great against the likes of Bradley Beal.
These are defenders who have cultivated a well-deserved reputation and who remain capable of making Murray uncomfortable and undercutting his rapport with Jokic.
Takeaway
Even if Michael Porter Jr. wakes up for Denver, the bench will be a strength for Minnesota again, and Karl-Anthony Towns especially will bounce back, returning to his characteristic efficiency.
Stronger defense, produced by greater effort and perhaps some adjustments, from the Timberwolves will complement their improved offense by again limiting Denver's scoring output.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +4 at -105 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston
Cleveland's Road Trend
The Cavaliers, under their current coaching staff, have covered one road playoff game in seven tries.
Their shooting, as has been the case this regular season, declines tremendously in road games.
Even with a healthy Donovan Mitchell and even while Mitchell is excelling, they repeatedly struggle this year to exceed 95 points.
They caught Boston, in Game 2, being unfocused – the Celtics also lapsed in Game 2 against Miami.
But Boston's defense has returned to form, holding Cleveland to 93 points in Game 3 and holding a Cleveland offense that was a less predictable new-look unit without Mitchell to 102 points in Game 5, despite Max Strus' characteristic shooting prowess at home.
With or without Mitchell, Cleveland will be a team that Boston is very prepared for.
Close-Out Game for Boston
History also suggests that the Celtics will be locked-in in this situation.
In their last close-out games in which they won, the Celtics beat Miami 118-84 for their biggest win of that series; they beat the 76ers last year 112-88 for their second-biggest win of that series; they won at Atlanta and likewise covered the spread.
Difference in Firepower
The spread might seem large given how close the final score was in Game 4, but Boston also won Game 1 by 25 despite Mitchell playing.
Without a healthy Mitchell, and without the team shooting well – Strus, for example, is shooting awfully on the road this postseason – there just aren't a lot of paths for Cleveland to reach even 90 points, especially since Boston now knows well what a no-Mitchell Cleveland offense looks like.
Besides Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and Caris LeVert, we have a bunch of single-digit scorers.
Conversely, Boston is one of the NBA's top two three-point shooting teams.
Jayson Tatum is finally figuring things out scoring-wise. He is clearly very tough for any defender to guard. His step-back is so nasty partly because he is very dangerous driving to the basket, although he also shoots well.
He and Jaylen Brown will easily be two of the top three scorers in the game. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are shooting great from deep.
Payton Pritchard, who admirably runs the offense, gets teammates involved, and scores in isolation, will come dangerously close to outscoring Cleveland's bench by himself.
With All-NBA Defensive Team selections Holiday and White, Boston has the personnel to limit Cleveland's preferred scoring options besides Mobley, while the Celtics boast reliable 25-to-35-point scorers – in Tatum and Brown – and consistent firepower largely in the form of excellent shooters surrounding them.
Best Bet: Celtics -15.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center
Dallas' Defense
Dallas is 4.5-point underdogs because it is playing on the road.
But the Mavericks have shown throughout these playoffs, as when they held the Clippers to 93 points twice and when they beat the Thunder by nine, that their tough defense travels. One indeed says that "defense travels."
The Mavericks have improved tremendously on defense this season because they have a very good perimeter defender in Derrick Jones Jr., excellent rim protection that is allowing the fewest field goals and the lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket in these playoffs, and at least one big in Daniel Gafford who is comfortable guarding along the perimeter and in space.
Defensively, Dallas has done a great job against Chet Holmgren, limiting him despite his versatility.
Partly for this reason, the Mavericks held OKC to 101 points in Game 3 before holding the Thunder to 100 points in Game 4 despite Lu Dort having his best playoff game this season.
I just don't see how OKC scores much at all outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
My point here is that Dallas' consistently solid defense will carry over to Game 5, and yet the Mavericks are dogged because they are the road team.
Luka and Kyrie
Dallas stayed within four of the Thunder in Game 4 despite Luka Doncic being off offensively.
However, Doncic is excellent at bouncing back after such an inefficient performance, as evident in Game 2 of this series and Game 4 of last series.
He is so hard to keep off his spots. His mid-range game remains excellent, and he might shoot well from three again on top of that. It's hard to contain him in consecutive times. He is, after all, an elite scorer.
Kyrie Irving, in Game 4, disappeared again, although we've seen him succeed consistently as an efficient scorer whose quickness off the bounce and other traits make him dangerous, especially with defenses often haplessly focusing on Luka. Game 1 in this series and his last series showed what he can do.
Dallas' Offense
The Mavs have too much physicality inside especially with their stronger bigs dealing with the skinny Holmgren. PJ Washington will continue his coming out party, not least because the Mavs have so many good scorers to defend. He is a versatile scorer who is sizzling from deep.
Luka and Kyrie, in sum, have an excellent supporting cast, whereas Dallas' toughness on defense is too much for everybody besides OKC's one significant scorer to overcome.
Their free throw shooting, which was absurdly bad on Monday, will also improve.
Best Bet: Mavericks +4.5 at -110 with BetOnline
