Game 5 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets: The Bucks Are Still Alive
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, April 30, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Game 4 Takeaway
Indiana's 13-point win in Game 4 might create the impression that covering a 4.5-point spread should be no problem.
But let's consider what it took for the Pacers to win.
They had to have the performance of their lives from behind the arc: they made 22 three-pointers.
Take away four three-pointers and they have just one more point than the Bucks.
Moreover, Bobby Portis was ejected after playing seven minutes. He was 2-for-4 from the floor.
Portis brings significant energy and scoring prowess to Milwaukee's offense.
Game 5 will be different because Indiana's three-point shooting will decline and because Portis won't get ejected.
Indiana's Vulnerable Defense
From the beginning of the game, it was apparent that Indiana's defense just can't be expected to put teams away.
Milwaukee was able to own the paint while it's three-point shooting wasn't great.
The Bucks have a lot of versatility and depth on offense that oddsmakers fail to account for by dogging them at home.
Malik Beasley is figuring things out, as evident in his 20-point performance. Brook Lopez stretches the floor with his three-point shooting as a center.
Khris Middleton's shooting fell off last game after his amazing Game 3 performance, but he was still effective as a facilitator.
A.J. Green is a sharpshooter who can be even more effective than he has been off the bench. Andre Jackson Jr., injects pace and speed into Milwaukee's offense and team.
Plus there's Portis.
Tyrese Haliburton
Indiana point guard Tyrese Haliburton is the team's primary facilitator.
Indiana's insane performance from behind the arc makes it easy to forget that, as evident in his assist-to-turnover ratio, Milwaukee is still doing a good job of using its length and aggression on defense to diminish Haliburton's distribution ability.
It seems that Haliburton also might play at less than 100%, as he is listed as 'questionable' for today's game with back spasms.
His absence would make it easier for the Bucks to play more zone on defense, which, statistically speaking, has had a strongly negative effect on Indiana's half-court offense.
But zone is anyhow something that Milwaukee can rely on given Indiana's decline in three-point shooting.
Two Team Points
One team-wide consideration is that it is not a good argument to say that Milwaukee is much worse without Damian Lillard and Giannis.
Indiana repeatedly struggles against teams that they "should" beat, with examples in the regular season including the Spurs, Hornets, Wizards, and Trail Blazers.
Moreover, this is a bad spot mentality-wise for the Pacers because they are ahead 3-1 in the series.
It will be tough for this young team to close out the series on the road where a veteran playoff-hardened Bucks team is going to be prepared mentally.
Best Bet: Bucks +4.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Tuesday, April 30, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Cleveland's Offense at Home
Returning home will certainly benefit the Cavaliers, who are reeling off two blowout losses in Orlando, but even at home they failed to reach 100 points.
Even in Game 1, when Donovan Mitchell scored 30 points, they only scored 97 points.
Donovan Mitchell
Mitchell's knee seems to be bothering him, as he aggravated it in this series and is less able to perform his signature moves as a result.
Rather than count on Mitchell's knee to bother him, I will count on the success that aggressive defender Jalen Suggs has had when guarding Mitchell, limiting the latter's productivity.
Orlando is also able to blitz Mitchell on ball-screens, helping to limit a key part of his offense and, by extension, of Cleveland's offense.
The response should be for Cleveland to use shooters to space the floor with.
But the Cavs are just not getting much out of Darius Garland and especially out of Sam Merrill, Max Strus, and Georges Niang.
Despite its aggressiveness toward Michell, Orlando is anyhow doing a great job of limiting open and wide-open three-point opportunities for the Cavs.
Scoring Inside
Cleveland's lack of three-point shooting positions it to rely heavily on scoring inside.
The Cavaliers had their success in Games 1 and 2 inside.
Does the change in location explain their reduced ability to continue succeeding inside in Games 3 and 4?
I find it much more reasonable to contend that Orlando's adjustments explain its strengthened interior defense.
The Magic are now starting Wendell Carter Jr. at center, placing Jonathan Isaac at the four.
Isaac is clearly more effective as the weak side defender that this lineup change is allowing him to function as.
Orlando's interior defense is at its best after this lineup adjustment.
Orlando's Offense
Orlando's offense benefited from playing at home.
Its offense fed off the energy of the home crowd, as it attacked the basket more and was generally more aggressive.
Game 4 also featured a tremendous shooting performance from the team.
Game 5 will see a decline in energy, now that the Magic don't have their home crowd to feed off, and in three-point shooting.
Orlando has been one of the worst three-point shooting teams all seasons and showed this in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland.
Tempo
The Magic like to play a slow game.
In Games 3 and 4, the pace was slower than it was in Games 1 and 2.
With Carter Jr., the Magic are able to control the glass more effectively, which is helping them control tempo.
This lineup change will carry over to Game 5, where the Magic will do a better job of slowing the game down than they did in Games 1 and 2.
Takeaway
The Magic offense will decline, while its defense is even better prepared to limit the Cavaliers' offense in what will be a slow-paced game.
Best Bet: Under 199.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Wednesday, May 1, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden
Key Trend
Miami under current head coach Erik Spoelstra has a great history in elimination games on the road.
Last year, the Heat won in Boston by 19.
They also stayed within five points of the Nuggets, covering the spread.
Two years ago, they won at Boston by eight.
Four years ago, they won at the Lakers by three.
Success on the road in an elimination game is an annual feature of Spoelstra's Heat.
Takeaway
The Heat lost Game 4 by 14 points with Derrick White having the game of his life for Boston and the Heat shooting 27.3 percent from deep.
Miami is approximately a top-ten team in three-point shooting, so one has to expect better shooting from them, while their defense continues to limit Boston with its switching on ball screens, effective and well-timed help defense, and ball pressure.
The field-goal efficiency in Game 4 was nearly even between both teams – Boston made one more field goal out of just as many field goal attempts.
We just need the Heat to do a bit better living up to their potential from behind the arc and with their jump shooting in general, and then we could see the Heat even win straight-up.
Best Bet: Heat +14 -110 with BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, April 30, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Game 4 Takeaway
Indiana's 13-point win in Game 4 might create the impression that covering a 4.5-point spread should be no problem.
But let's consider what it took for the Pacers to win.
They had to have the performance of their lives from behind the arc: they made 22 three-pointers.
Take away four three-pointers and they have just one more point than the Bucks.
Moreover, Bobby Portis was ejected after playing seven minutes. He was 2-for-4 from the floor.
Portis brings significant energy and scoring prowess to Milwaukee's offense.
Game 5 will be different because Indiana's three-point shooting will decline and because Portis won't get ejected.
Indiana's Vulnerable Defense
From the beginning of the game, it was apparent that Indiana's defense just can't be expected to put teams away.
Milwaukee was able to own the paint while it's three-point shooting wasn't great.
The Bucks have a lot of versatility and depth on offense that oddsmakers fail to account for by dogging them at home.
Malik Beasley is figuring things out, as evident in his 20-point performance. Brook Lopez stretches the floor with his three-point shooting as a center.
Khris Middleton's shooting fell off last game after his amazing Game 3 performance, but he was still effective as a facilitator.
A.J. Green is a sharpshooter who can be even more effective than he has been off the bench. Andre Jackson Jr., injects pace and speed into Milwaukee's offense and team.
Plus there's Portis.
Tyrese Haliburton
Indiana point guard Tyrese Haliburton is the team's primary facilitator.
Indiana's insane performance from behind the arc makes it easy to forget that, as evident in his assist-to-turnover ratio, Milwaukee is still doing a good job of using its length and aggression on defense to diminish Haliburton's distribution ability.
It seems that Haliburton also might play at less than 100%, as he is listed as 'questionable' for today's game with back spasms.
His absence would make it easier for the Bucks to play more zone on defense, which, statistically speaking, has had a strongly negative effect on Indiana's half-court offense.
But zone is anyhow something that Milwaukee can rely on given Indiana's decline in three-point shooting.
Two Team Points
One team-wide consideration is that it is not a good argument to say that Milwaukee is much worse without Damian Lillard and Giannis.
Indiana repeatedly struggles against teams that they "should" beat, with examples in the regular season including the Spurs, Hornets, Wizards, and Trail Blazers.
Moreover, this is a bad spot mentality-wise for the Pacers because they are ahead 3-1 in the series.
It will be tough for this young team to close out the series on the road where a veteran playoff-hardened Bucks team is going to be prepared mentally.
Best Bet: Bucks +4.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Tuesday, April 30, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Cleveland's Offense at Home
Returning home will certainly benefit the Cavaliers, who are reeling off two blowout losses in Orlando, but even at home they failed to reach 100 points.
Even in Game 1, when Donovan Mitchell scored 30 points, they only scored 97 points.
Donovan Mitchell
Mitchell's knee seems to be bothering him, as he aggravated it in this series and is less able to perform his signature moves as a result.
Rather than count on Mitchell's knee to bother him, I will count on the success that aggressive defender Jalen Suggs has had when guarding Mitchell, limiting the latter's productivity.
Orlando is also able to blitz Mitchell on ball-screens, helping to limit a key part of his offense and, by extension, of Cleveland's offense.
The response should be for Cleveland to use shooters to space the floor with.
But the Cavs are just not getting much out of Darius Garland and especially out of Sam Merrill, Max Strus, and Georges Niang.
Despite its aggressiveness toward Michell, Orlando is anyhow doing a great job of limiting open and wide-open three-point opportunities for the Cavs.
Scoring Inside
Cleveland's lack of three-point shooting positions it to rely heavily on scoring inside.
The Cavaliers had their success in Games 1 and 2 inside.
Does the change in location explain their reduced ability to continue succeeding inside in Games 3 and 4?
I find it much more reasonable to contend that Orlando's adjustments explain its strengthened interior defense.
The Magic are now starting Wendell Carter Jr. at center, placing Jonathan Isaac at the four.
Isaac is clearly more effective as the weak side defender that this lineup change is allowing him to function as.
Orlando's interior defense is at its best after this lineup adjustment.
Orlando's Offense
Orlando's offense benefited from playing at home.
Its offense fed off the energy of the home crowd, as it attacked the basket more and was generally more aggressive.
Game 4 also featured a tremendous shooting performance from the team.
Game 5 will see a decline in energy, now that the Magic don't have their home crowd to feed off, and in three-point shooting.
Orlando has been one of the worst three-point shooting teams all seasons and showed this in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland.
Tempo
The Magic like to play a slow game.
In Games 3 and 4, the pace was slower than it was in Games 1 and 2.
With Carter Jr., the Magic are able to control the glass more effectively, which is helping them control tempo.
This lineup change will carry over to Game 5, where the Magic will do a better job of slowing the game down than they did in Games 1 and 2.
Takeaway
The Magic offense will decline, while its defense is even better prepared to limit the Cavaliers' offense in what will be a slow-paced game.
Best Bet: Under 199.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Wednesday, May 1, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden
Key Trend
Miami under current head coach Erik Spoelstra has a great history in elimination games on the road.
Last year, the Heat won in Boston by 19.
They also stayed within five points of the Nuggets, covering the spread.
Two years ago, they won at Boston by eight.
Four years ago, they won at the Lakers by three.
Success on the road in an elimination game is an annual feature of Spoelstra's Heat.
Takeaway
The Heat lost Game 4 by 14 points with Derrick White having the game of his life for Boston and the Heat shooting 27.3 percent from deep.
Miami is approximately a top-ten team in three-point shooting, so one has to expect better shooting from them, while their defense continues to limit Boston with its switching on ball screens, effective and well-timed help defense, and ball pressure.
The field-goal efficiency in Game 4 was nearly even between both teams – Boston made one more field goal out of just as many field goal attempts.
We just need the Heat to do a bit better living up to their potential from behind the arc and with their jump shooting in general, and then we could see the Heat even win straight-up.
Best Bet: Heat +14 -110 with BetOnline
