Game 2 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets: No Giannis? Dame Doesn't Mind
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
The Value of Playoff Experience
Game 1 between these teams showed that it pays to have playoff experience.
It provided an important betting lesson for all of us: we need to respect not simply the team with veterans who have played in the playoffs but more importantly the team with playoff experience and that sort of "playoff dawg" attitude.
Damian Lillard, Pat Beverley and other Bucks players clearly have that attitude. They embrace the playoff atmosphere.
Conversely, Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton hides in his shell like a turtle: the moment is too big for him, so he lets his teammates take more shots. He shoots less, and he even creates less.
Now, I'm not going to stake my bet on this. The Pacers, mentally speaking, should be more prepared for Game 2 than they were on Game 1.
But it's a bonus consideration in Milwaukee's favor that Indiana still isn't ready for playoff basketball. After all, down 1-0 in the series, the pressure is on Indiana to get a win, especially with Giannis, who had demolished the Pacers during the regular season, likely to miss tonight's game.
Containing Haliburton
I like Milwaukee because its victory in Game 1 was not simply a product of Indiana's inexperience.
Importantly, Milwaukee is led by a head coach with a more consistent and overall better playoff history than Indiana's, the latter having won his sole title when he could count on legend Dirk Nowitzki to lead his team.
Thanks to their coaching advantage, the Bucks showed tactical intelligence, containing Haliburton in a way that they will replicate.
They bothered him on every inch of the court, relying on good individual defenders, such as three-time All-Defensive team member and notorious pest Pat Bev, and on good team defense. The Bucks blitzed him, trapped him with double teams, and attacked him with their length.
Haliburton's struggles against the length and physicality of Milwaukee evokes his regular season struggles against teams like Orlando.
So, he's been contained multiple times before. Milwaukee's effort was no fluke but something that it had the personnel and tactical knowhow to accomplish.
Haliburton is easily one of Indiana's top two scorers, and he is his team's top creator, so taking him out of the game is critical. Pascal Siakam will not beat the Bucks by himself.
Milwaukee's Spread Offense
The strength of Indiana's defense lies in its rim protection provided by shot-blocker Myles Turner.
But what happens when Turner is pinned to the perimeter? Then he can't protect the rim, and you get a layup line.
Milwaukee has too many perimeter threats on offense, one being Turner's counterpart, Brook Lopez.
Indiana's defense is conceptually focused on taking away the opponent's three-point shots.
So Milwaukee's prowess along the perimeter is something that really bothers Indiana.
The Bucks shoot 38.8 percent from deep and are clearly still able to thrive from deep without having Giannis around to pose a threat inside.
Dame Time
Damian Lillard frustrated the Pacers with his shooting prowess.
When they attacked him behind the arc, he could simply drive inside.
Indiana does not have a player who can guard him.
The Pacers will ideally want to funnel him to rim-protector Turner, except Turner is going to be pinned away to the perimeter.
One further reason why I like Milwaukee tonight is that Indiana in the second half gave away its defensive game plan for tonight.
The Pacers double-teamed Lillard and appeared to have success doing so, except the Bucks were clearly coasting with their gigantic lead.
Milwaukee is going to have a plan for Indiana's double team strategy.
Lillard has zero reason to be concerned because he's seen this plan plenty of times before and mastered it.
An example is in March when not only Giannis but also midrange maestro Khris Middleton were injured.
In that game, despite their various forms of defensive pressure, Lillard scored 41 points, helping his team defeat the Clippers by seven.
Best Bet: Bucks ML at -115 with BetOnline
Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Target Center
Phoenix Can Do It
In addition to its regular season success against the Timberwolves, Phoenix showed in the first quarter that it can score a lot against Minnesota.
The Suns' first quarter offensive rating was 116.7.
They scored 28 points in this quarter.
Their worst quarters were the following three quarters.
But this decline was not a consequence of Minnesota's defense. Instead, it was a consequence of Phoenix's stagnation on offense.
The Suns stopped being dynamic with their movement, making them easier to guard, making them more reliant on making tough shots, which, despite the quality of Phoenix's star power, happened not to be falling.
Bad offense often leads to bad defense, and so the strong final score in Minnesota's favor is able to take shape as a consequence of this preventable concatenation.
Further Factors
Several factors, in addition to Phoenix's lack of offensive movement, that will not repeat themselves contributed to Minnesota's win.
One, Minnesota annihilated Phoenix on the glass.
My thought here is that the Suns were overconfident because they owned Minnesota in the regular season.
The Suns simply need to toughen up and get physical. There is no reason why one NBA team should own the glass to such a superior extent over another NBA team.
Two, Eric Gordon and Grayson Allen will not combine for 0-for-7 from behind the arc.
Both are highly efficient shooters with plenty of playoff experience, so one has to expect them to come back – consider it a bonus if Allen, who was limited in practice with an ankle injury yesterday, plays.
Three, Phoenix won't be so inept with its short-range attempts in front of the basket.
The Suns made it evident that they do damage with Jusuf Nurkic, who is a potent pick-and-roll weapon whom Phoenix can use to attack Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns with. The likes of Nurkic just has to convert the "gimme" scoring opportunities.
Star Comparison
Of course, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are too good to struggle as they did in Game 1.
Conversely, Anthony Edwards for Minnesota, its only on-ball threat, made so many tough step-back mid-range jump shots.
Edwards' success is unsustainable, whereas the big three for Phoenix – Booker, Beal, and Durant – will showcase their shot-making talent especially in the mid-range against this team that is characteristically very vulnerable to allowing high shooting percentages in the 10-19-foot spaces.
And the big three will get more than ample support from guys like Gordon, Nurkic, and better rebounding. Cutting down turnovers will help, too.
Best Bet: Suns +3 at -110 with BetOnline
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center
Missing Zion
Zion's absence is a huge deal for the Pelicans that they cannot overcome.
This is not some role player. Zion is their leading scorer, their best offensive piece.
He missed one game between these two teams in the regular season. In that game, the Pelicans scored 83 points despite being at home.
If you didn't learn your lesson from that game, the Pelicans again struggled offensively in Game 1, mustering 92 points.
Without Zion, the Pelicans lack a player who can pose such a threat inside as to demand the attention of the opposing team's perimeter defenders.
New Orleans becomes easier to defend behind the arc and in general.
Why Was Game 1 So Close?
Game 1 was so close because the Thunder had an off day in terms of their shooting.
The key is that the opportunities were there.
They attempted 23 wide-open threes, but only made eight of them.
Moreover, they missed 77.9-percent of their open three-point attempts.
Oklahoma City owns the second-best three-point percentage in the NBA, so one has to expect them to shoot better.
After all, the Thunder scored as many as 119 points in their regular season games against the Pelicans, and that game took place in New Orleans.
Gilgeous-Alexander & Holmgren
I was not impressed by Thunder center Chet Holmgren in Game 1.
He can do better than 15 points. This is a good matchup for him, him being as dynamic and versatile offensively as he is, and his Pelicans counterpart Jonas Valanciunas being as slow and tied to the basket as he is.
Expect more from Holmgren in Game 2.
Gilgeous-Alexander did impress me with his 28 points. He benefits from having a smart head coach who understands how to get him to be defended by someone other than Herb Jones.
A better Holmgren, a continually strong Gilgeous-Alexander, and much better three-point shooting will lead to a dominant Game 2 win following the Game 1 thriller.
Best Bet: Thunder -7.5 at -112 with BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
The Value of Playoff Experience
Game 1 between these teams showed that it pays to have playoff experience.
It provided an important betting lesson for all of us: we need to respect not simply the team with veterans who have played in the playoffs but more importantly the team with playoff experience and that sort of "playoff dawg" attitude.
Damian Lillard, Pat Beverley and other Bucks players clearly have that attitude. They embrace the playoff atmosphere.
Conversely, Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton hides in his shell like a turtle: the moment is too big for him, so he lets his teammates take more shots. He shoots less, and he even creates less.
Now, I'm not going to stake my bet on this. The Pacers, mentally speaking, should be more prepared for Game 2 than they were on Game 1.
But it's a bonus consideration in Milwaukee's favor that Indiana still isn't ready for playoff basketball. After all, down 1-0 in the series, the pressure is on Indiana to get a win, especially with Giannis, who had demolished the Pacers during the regular season, likely to miss tonight's game.
Containing Haliburton
I like Milwaukee because its victory in Game 1 was not simply a product of Indiana's inexperience.
Importantly, Milwaukee is led by a head coach with a more consistent and overall better playoff history than Indiana's, the latter having won his sole title when he could count on legend Dirk Nowitzki to lead his team.
Thanks to their coaching advantage, the Bucks showed tactical intelligence, containing Haliburton in a way that they will replicate.
They bothered him on every inch of the court, relying on good individual defenders, such as three-time All-Defensive team member and notorious pest Pat Bev, and on good team defense. The Bucks blitzed him, trapped him with double teams, and attacked him with their length.
Haliburton's struggles against the length and physicality of Milwaukee evokes his regular season struggles against teams like Orlando.
So, he's been contained multiple times before. Milwaukee's effort was no fluke but something that it had the personnel and tactical knowhow to accomplish.
Haliburton is easily one of Indiana's top two scorers, and he is his team's top creator, so taking him out of the game is critical. Pascal Siakam will not beat the Bucks by himself.
Milwaukee's Spread Offense
The strength of Indiana's defense lies in its rim protection provided by shot-blocker Myles Turner.
But what happens when Turner is pinned to the perimeter? Then he can't protect the rim, and you get a layup line.
Milwaukee has too many perimeter threats on offense, one being Turner's counterpart, Brook Lopez.
Indiana's defense is conceptually focused on taking away the opponent's three-point shots.
So Milwaukee's prowess along the perimeter is something that really bothers Indiana.
The Bucks shoot 38.8 percent from deep and are clearly still able to thrive from deep without having Giannis around to pose a threat inside.
Dame Time
Damian Lillard frustrated the Pacers with his shooting prowess.
When they attacked him behind the arc, he could simply drive inside.
Indiana does not have a player who can guard him.
The Pacers will ideally want to funnel him to rim-protector Turner, except Turner is going to be pinned away to the perimeter.
One further reason why I like Milwaukee tonight is that Indiana in the second half gave away its defensive game plan for tonight.
The Pacers double-teamed Lillard and appeared to have success doing so, except the Bucks were clearly coasting with their gigantic lead.
Milwaukee is going to have a plan for Indiana's double team strategy.
Lillard has zero reason to be concerned because he's seen this plan plenty of times before and mastered it.
An example is in March when not only Giannis but also midrange maestro Khris Middleton were injured.
In that game, despite their various forms of defensive pressure, Lillard scored 41 points, helping his team defeat the Clippers by seven.
Best Bet: Bucks ML at -115 with BetOnline
Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Target Center
Phoenix Can Do It
In addition to its regular season success against the Timberwolves, Phoenix showed in the first quarter that it can score a lot against Minnesota.
The Suns' first quarter offensive rating was 116.7.
They scored 28 points in this quarter.
Their worst quarters were the following three quarters.
But this decline was not a consequence of Minnesota's defense. Instead, it was a consequence of Phoenix's stagnation on offense.
The Suns stopped being dynamic with their movement, making them easier to guard, making them more reliant on making tough shots, which, despite the quality of Phoenix's star power, happened not to be falling.
Bad offense often leads to bad defense, and so the strong final score in Minnesota's favor is able to take shape as a consequence of this preventable concatenation.
Further Factors
Several factors, in addition to Phoenix's lack of offensive movement, that will not repeat themselves contributed to Minnesota's win.
One, Minnesota annihilated Phoenix on the glass.
My thought here is that the Suns were overconfident because they owned Minnesota in the regular season.
The Suns simply need to toughen up and get physical. There is no reason why one NBA team should own the glass to such a superior extent over another NBA team.
Two, Eric Gordon and Grayson Allen will not combine for 0-for-7 from behind the arc.
Both are highly efficient shooters with plenty of playoff experience, so one has to expect them to come back – consider it a bonus if Allen, who was limited in practice with an ankle injury yesterday, plays.
Three, Phoenix won't be so inept with its short-range attempts in front of the basket.
The Suns made it evident that they do damage with Jusuf Nurkic, who is a potent pick-and-roll weapon whom Phoenix can use to attack Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns with. The likes of Nurkic just has to convert the "gimme" scoring opportunities.
Star Comparison
Of course, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are too good to struggle as they did in Game 1.
Conversely, Anthony Edwards for Minnesota, its only on-ball threat, made so many tough step-back mid-range jump shots.
Edwards' success is unsustainable, whereas the big three for Phoenix – Booker, Beal, and Durant – will showcase their shot-making talent especially in the mid-range against this team that is characteristically very vulnerable to allowing high shooting percentages in the 10-19-foot spaces.
And the big three will get more than ample support from guys like Gordon, Nurkic, and better rebounding. Cutting down turnovers will help, too.
Best Bet: Suns +3 at -110 with BetOnline
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center
Missing Zion
Zion's absence is a huge deal for the Pelicans that they cannot overcome.
This is not some role player. Zion is their leading scorer, their best offensive piece.
He missed one game between these two teams in the regular season. In that game, the Pelicans scored 83 points despite being at home.
If you didn't learn your lesson from that game, the Pelicans again struggled offensively in Game 1, mustering 92 points.
Without Zion, the Pelicans lack a player who can pose such a threat inside as to demand the attention of the opposing team's perimeter defenders.
New Orleans becomes easier to defend behind the arc and in general.
Why Was Game 1 So Close?
Game 1 was so close because the Thunder had an off day in terms of their shooting.
The key is that the opportunities were there.
They attempted 23 wide-open threes, but only made eight of them.
Moreover, they missed 77.9-percent of their open three-point attempts.
Oklahoma City owns the second-best three-point percentage in the NBA, so one has to expect them to shoot better.
After all, the Thunder scored as many as 119 points in their regular season games against the Pelicans, and that game took place in New Orleans.
Gilgeous-Alexander & Holmgren
I was not impressed by Thunder center Chet Holmgren in Game 1.
He can do better than 15 points. This is a good matchup for him, him being as dynamic and versatile offensively as he is, and his Pelicans counterpart Jonas Valanciunas being as slow and tied to the basket as he is.
Expect more from Holmgren in Game 2.
Gilgeous-Alexander did impress me with his 28 points. He benefits from having a smart head coach who understands how to get him to be defended by someone other than Herb Jones.
A better Holmgren, a continually strong Gilgeous-Alexander, and much better three-point shooting will lead to a dominant Game 2 win following the Game 1 thriller.
Best Bet: Thunder -7.5 at -112 with BetOnline
