Tuesday 11/27/2007

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
65-47 (58%) +14.98 Units

Will be adding to the card as many of the games I have targeted have yet to release lines. Probably going to be playing the Bulls, but I already missed the -4 and I'll wait and see what happens from here.

Tuesday Plays
Lakes -8 2H
Nets -5
Heat -7
Cavs +3'
Sixers +6'
Denver 2nd Half -7 (-115)

Leans:
Miami/Miami O (won't play both in any of these games where I like a side and total)
Bulls/Bulls O
CLE U
CLE ATS
Nuggets
LAL
PHI/O


Nets -5
Basically just trying to ride out Jersey's hot streak here. With a bad defensive team like Memphis 5 isn't a huge #. Thought this would be 7 and it may end up there before game time. At 5-9 this is a game Jersey has to have as they have a 4/5 next up including games at DET and CLE.
 
Last edited:
J - thanks for the kind words in my thread.

For what it's worth, my totals program has the Bulls game going under for a 2* play.

I've got Memphis/Nets going way under for a 3* too. Won't be posting just wanted to let you know.
 
I really have a nice lean on Memphis. I need to look much further into it after I finish up my CFB research here next few hours.

Line opened 6.5 and was 5 at BM..back to 5.5
 
Memphis is one of my favorite teams to playing as dogs, but the Nets are hot right now, I see where you're coming from
 
RambleOn said:
J - thanks for the kind words in my thread.

For what it's worth, my totals program has the Bulls game going under for a 2* play.

I've got Memphis/Nets going way under for a 3* too. Won't be posting just wanted to let you know.
Click to expand...

I could easily see why your system would have an under in ATL. The over and Bulls play would more be based on an expectation I have on the Bulls.

Won't be going near the total in Jersey as I can see it going either way, but I appreciate the input. Seems like the system was working pretty good for ya. Hopefully we'll see ya back soon enough. GL with the school work.

B.A.R. said:
I really have a nice lean on Memphis. I need to look much further into it after I finish up my CFB research here next few hours.

Line opened 6.5 and was 5 at BM..back to 5.5
Click to expand...

I'm guessing the line will be back to 6.5 by tip tomorrow. I don't see a reason why you'd want to go up agains the Nets right now with the poor start they had needing to win every game possible. Memphis on front end of a B2B with a revenge game on deck vs TOR. It was less than a week ago that MEM lost at home to TOR as a home fav and I'm sure they will have a bit of a lookahead there. NJN has also dominated the recent matchups between the teams.

lifesallover said:
Memphis is one of my favorite teams to playing as dogs, but the Nets are hot right now, I see where you're coming from
Click to expand...

I've also liked playing MEM as a dog, but just really like this spot for the Nets.
 
J,
Why do you like the cavs? is it a situational play or you think the celts cant cover the 3?
thanks
 
Thanks guys.

Cash--Mainy the 3.5 sparks my interst. I assumed a 2 for this game and I think there is a little bit of value here in the extra 1.5. So many people assume that if a team wins by SU they can cover 3.5 or 4. That's so wrong and it's ecspecially wrong for a road team. Celtics have already won 2 road games by 3 points or less while the Cavs have lost by 4 points or les 3 times.

As good, and as popular as the C's are the Cavs (LJ) will still get every call in the world tonight. So I'll normally take the points in a close game where the home team is the dog and has the guy that's going to get the most calls. In the NBA that's normally a winner.
 
Heat -7

Line probably isn't going down so I'll grab it now. Heat have BOS @home, @DEN, @UTA after this game. Heat have also lost to CHA twice this year including one at home where Riley said he could play better than most of his players with an artificial hip. O'Neal called the loss "emberassing". Bobcats off an emotional loss against the C's at home. Both teams off of two days rest.
 
i appreciate the response and agree with you, especially the hc ref calls.

i play ml's and when i look at this game, i see a lot of value in the celts ml, don't have a lay a "huge" amt. and when i match these 2 teams up i see boston being better.
I think the line will drop further, which will increase my value, public loves lebron and his triple doubles, but who have they been against, a toronto team with no identity and no defense, and Indiana team that can't get figure things out and without JO and vs twolves, , not exactly an elite bunch.

just don't tell me you are taking the ml and i will feel better :prayer
 
No I'm not much of a ML player. As much as the public loves James they love the C's just as much. I'd be worried about the ML only because James will get every call down the stretch. Either way I expect a one posission game at the end.
 
Ya I hear ya. Should have grabbed the 5. Not sure about playing it at 6, but maybe I'll find my balls in a minute.
 
heat opener much too low, cavs line like a set up for me as i like both the side and total and boston is my krpytonite, may do a ml/total parlay, im sure jp will know the side/total i like lol
 
JPicks said:
Heat -7

Line probably isn't going down so I'll grab it now. Heat have BOS @home, @DEN, @UTA after this game. Heat have also lost to CHA twice this year including one at home where Riley said he could play better than most of his players with an artificial hip. O'Neal called the loss "emberassing". Bobcats off an emotional loss against the C's at home. Both teams off of two days rest.
Click to expand...


Yes, thats the facts, but why take Miami 7 points against the team which their was strugglin as of late? Bobcats comes from a good match against Celtics, they even should have won it. Miami's nowhere close to the teams like Boston now. Charlotte already beats 2 times Heat this season, and in the last season as well. I know this is the match they "have to" win, wants revenge, Flash's back.. etc, but I dont think they should be such a big fave here. Gl today JP
 
xpression syst_m said:
heat opener much too low, cavs line like a set up for me as i like both the side and total and boston is my krpytonite, may do a ml/total parlay, im sure jp will know the side/total i like lol
Click to expand...

Cleveland and the under. Yeah. I think I'm gonna grab the 3.5. I like that number.
 
Songo said:
Yes, thats the facts, but why take Miami 7 points against the team which their was strugglin as of late? Bobcats comes from a good match against Celtics, they even should have won it. Miami's nowhere close to the teams like Boston now. Charlotte already beats 2 times Heat this season, and in the last season as well. I know this is the match they "have to" win, wants revenge, Flash's back.. etc, but I dont think they should be such a big fave here. Gl today JP
Click to expand...


I understand where you're coming from in refernce to the line being higher than you'd expect. The books already did this once with the Hawks being an eight point dog to the Heat (I was on the Hawks). That one certainly didn't work out well for the Heat as the Hawks won SU.

There are alot more things that are working in Miami's favor here vs when they played the Hawks, most of which I already talked about. The line does seem high when only looking at past results, but the books make a killing in these spots. You'll probably see 2 out of 3 people bet the Bobcats today on sportsinsight or wagerline and the line will either not move or actually go to 7.5 or 8.
 
BOL tonight JPicks

glad to see you lean under in cle/boston, actually you are on are lean on the plays I am on today so thats all a plus. like your reasoning with the heat game, also feel that shaq will not hold back tonight since they get 2 days off after this game and dwades played 40+ his last two games and only played 28 vs ATL.
 
a 109-104 Cleveland OT W was the best thing possible for value on Detroit 2m. Gotta play this one for over 1 unit. nice 3-1 day btw
 
Thanks Cash. Hope you didn't have the C's ML.

SF-Thanks. Probably only a single unit on DET depending on how popular the play is elsewhere (other boards).


ADDING:

Denver 2nd Half -7 (-115)
 
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