Tuesday 11/13/2007

[JPicks]

YTD 32-24 +7.43 Units


Tuesday Plays

Rockets/Grizzlies O199
Heat/Bobcats U180
Magic -9'
Bobcats -1
Suns/Knicks U210'

Rockets/Grizzlies O199
First off the downside to this play. The Rockets have been playing some great defense holding some of the top offensive teams to some low #'s (UTA, LAL, SAN). This game won't, and shouldn't, have nearly the playoff feel to it as those games did. Obviously Utah knocked the Rockets out of the playoffs last year so the defensive intensity was bound to be there, I'll give the defensive effort in the Lakers game to the season opener, and the Spurs game needs no justification. If there is a game that the Rockets may come out and lay an egg on the defensive side it's bound to be against the Grizzlies before the Rockets play a tough stretch of games over 8 days (LAL, @SAN, PHO, DAL).

If the Grizzlies can get to 95 this play shouldn't have any problems. They've averaged 102 a game so far this year including 101 against the Spurs in their home opener. Even better they love giving up points as only the TWolves and Warriors have a worst defensive efficiency ranking. I don't see how the Rockets score less than 105 in this game as everybody but Portland has put up 104+ against the Grizz.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

gl

 

[lifesallover]

YTD 32-24 +7.43 Units


Tuesday Plays

Rockets/Grizzlies O199


Rockets/Grizzlies O199
First off the downside to this play. The Rockets have been playing some great defense holding some of the top offensive teams to some low #'s (UTA, LAL, SAN). This game won't, and shouldn't, have nearly the playoff feel to it as those games did. Obviously Utah knocked the Rockets out of the playoffs last year so the defensive intensity was bound to be there, I'll give the defensive effort in the Lakers game to the season opener, and the Spurs game needs no justification. If there is a game that the Rockets may come out and lay an egg on the defensive side it's bound to be against the Grizzlies before the Rockets play a tough stretch of games over 8 days (LAL, @SAN, PHO, DAL).

If the Grizzlies can get to 95 this play shouldn't have any problems. They've averaged 102 a game so far this year including 101 against the Spurs in their home opener. Even better they love giving up points as only the TWolves and Warriors have a worst defensive efficiency ranking. I don't see how the Rockets score less than 105 in this game as everybody but Portland has put up 104+ against the Grizz.

Portland scored 110 against the Grizz:tiphat: GL tomorrow like the play

 

[JPicks]

Ya my bad. It was Seattle that I was thinking about. Didn't mean to throw your Blazers under the bus.

Thanks Believe.

 

[B.A.R.]

Interesting. Soild reasoning no doubt. Brutal early schedule for the Rockets.

 

[rod_steel]

My fav play for tomorrow as well especially as I think Grizz can win this one SU, GL

 

[JPicks]

Interesting. Soild reasoning no doubt. Brutal early schedule for the Rockets.

Well I had to come up with some solid reasoning to convince myself to play it. The play comes down to the fact that the Grizzlies "plan" on giving up 105 a night. That's a pretty good starting point for any total below 200.

My fav play for tomorrow as well especially as I think Grizz can win this one SU, GL

Thanks Rod.

 

[JPicks]

CHA/MIA U180

I'm making this play with plans of Wade still being out. I think it'd be a miracle if he plays, but he could stop being a pussy any day now. You have a matchup of the slowest and third slowest pace teams in the league. It's amazing how perfect of a matchup these two teams are for an under. Charlotte is 27th in Offensive efficiency while the heat are 7th in defensive efficiency. Miami is 29th in OE while the Bobcats are 19th in DE. So basically we have two of the three slowest paced teams in the NBA combined with 2 of the 4 worst offenses in the NBA against respectable defenses. Call me interested.

Teams all ready played and totaled 178 points on Nov. 4th. It was a tale of two halves as the teams combined for 103 first half points and 75 second half points. Looking for some more of the second half stats tonight. I'd also rather not be playing this as a new over run is starting, but I've had my eye on this play since I watch these teams play previously. Can't pass it up.

 

[JPicks]

Magic -9'

Have some thoughts (well they're mostly BC's thoughts) in the Tuesday discussion. Was hoping for a 9, but it looks like it's getting pounded to shortly. Still 9' at BM.

 

[JPicks]

Bobcats -1

They're playing the Heat. Nuff said.

 

[JPicks]

A couple WEDNESDAY plays but I'll post it here.

Atlanta Hawks -5
IND/WAS O200'

 

[xpression syst_m]

based on their recent matchups, i think im going to look at that miami total at halftime, their 2nd halves have been much more lethargic than the 1st halves

 

[Songo]

like your thoughts JPicks, gl today

 

[abcs]

Just noticed you are on the hawks for tom.. probablly the same reasoning as me.

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL JPicks - very similar card today, everything but the Orlando play. Hope we cash it in.

 

[JPicks]

based on their recent matchups, i think im going to look at that miami total at halftime, their 2nd halves have been much more lethargic than the 1st halves

I don't disagree with that idea. Haven't really dove into past matchups much, but that was certainly the case during the first game.

thanks songo

abcs--I'm sure they are. Should be a nice spot for the Hawks as long as they're not fighting amongst each other.

ReNew--I think we view the NBA with similar glasses. We're usually good for a couple of the same plays.

 

[bee172]

GL man

 

[Satyr]

good luck buddy :cheers:

 

[JPicks]

Thanks bee, Satyr.


Suns/Knicks U210'

My personal nemisis. Suns unders. I don't know why I love playing them, as I'm sure I have a losing record doing it. Like Mardy Collins slowing the pace tonight and I with Randolph around to score and give up layoffs it makes the play a bit more attractive.

 

[xpression syst_m]

another night in the life of a hoops genius, nice work

 

[bee172]

great work tonight bro

 

[abcs]

Good day bud

 

[JPicks]

thanks fellas, but unfortunately i think i got myself into a loss with yet another phoenix under. when will i learn. :whip:

 

[abcs]

haha betting unders with the knicks defense is a no no

 

[JPicks]

haha betting unders with the knicks defense is a no no

I'd try to rationalize it, but I've got nothing. 64 1st quarter points on a game when you have an under is enough to make me lick my wounds and move on.

 

[xpression syst_m]

i wouldn't surrender all hope just yet bro, you just need phoenix to extend this to 22-25pts and then without nash on court, they'll be much more ineffective

 

[JPicks]

i wouldn't surrender all hope just yet bro, you just need phoenix to extend this to 22-25pts and then without nash on court, they'll be much more ineffective

I actually had hope but didn't want to express optimism. Oh well. + day and that's all you can ask for.

 

[Killa]

Best NBA capper on the internet.

 

[Hard Times]

nice night, jpicks.

 

[$$CMoney$$]

Great Night JP:cheers: