Tuesday 03/25/14 NBA discussion thread

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The Spurs can suck my manhood
[TABLE="class: linesTbl, width: 934"]
<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px;">[TR="class: linesHeader"]
[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - TUE 3/25[/h][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesColumns"]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Tue 3/25[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]651[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Toronto Raptors[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-4.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.549[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 195 2.030[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]652[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Cleveland Cavaliers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+4.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 2.640[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 195 1.877[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Tue 3/25[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]653[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Portland Trail Blazers [/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-6 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.426[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 204.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]654[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Orlando Magic[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+6 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 3.100[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 204.5 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Tue 3/25[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]655[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Oklahoma City Thunder[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-3 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.654[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 211.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]05:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]656[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Dallas Mavericks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+3 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 2.380[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 211.5 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Tue 3/25[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]657[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]New York Knicks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-7.5 1.971[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.317[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 216.5 1.962[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]07:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]658[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Los Angeles Lakers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+7.5 1.935[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 3.770[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 216.5 1.943[/TD]
[/TR]
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Last edited:
I don't like the fact that Dallas off a loss and Suns are on their back, but I would think that Thunder want revenge for a home loss.
 
Early lean to Toronto first half.
Cleveland at home has covered recently at home vs Houston, OKC and Mia
At the end of the first half they were
down 12 to Houston
Down 10 to OKC
Down 5 to Heat
Recent game vs Knicks they were down 15
Knicks at Cleveland down by 8 at half time
Down 10 to Spurs
Seems to be conditioned reflex that is hard to break as playoff chances very remote.
Issue is the super hot shooting that broke Knicks.
Currently not sure if that is a plus or minus to them today.
 
lean mavericks, toronto and portland. DAL is 19-10 ATS off a loss,good bounce back team, OKC in B2B. See a similar result to OKC-TOR where OKC won by 1 but lost as a 3 pt favorite. This game should be a pick'em with home court for DAL + westbrook back but not sure if 100%:Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival
123-48 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 49.8 units )

Also OKC won in High altitude yesterday in Denver
 
edou1x said:
lean mavericks, toronto and portland. DAL is 19-10 ATS off a loss,good bounce back team, OKC in B2B. See a similar result to OKC-TOR where OKC won by 1 but lost as a 3 pt favorite. This game should be a pick'em with home court for DAL + westbrook back but not sure if 100%:Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival
123-48 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 49.8 units )

Also OKC won in High altitude yesterday in Denver
Click to expand...



I believe this game was in okc ??
 
Toronto has looked a little fatigued lately and the absense of Patterson, who was huge for them off the bench may be catching up to them - but against this Cleveland team they should be able to get the job done.

Raps have done well to beat the lesser teams this year and across the board when you look at lowrie, ross and derozan vs jack, waiters and deng - big edge to Toronto. Benches - big edge to Toronto. Coach - big edge to Toronto.

Toronto needs to keep winning to hold on to the 3rd seed while the Cavs season was pretty much done awhile ago.

The first half comments posted above are interesting but the Raps are notorious slow starter but great finisher.

Will be on them one way or another tonight.
 
StatFox Super Situations


PORTLAND at ORLANDO
Play Against - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) after 9 or more consecutive losses 32-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.2% | 21.0 units ) 3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )


TORONTO at CLEVELAND
Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half 32-12 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.7% | 20.1 units ) 0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.0 units )


PORTLAND at ORLANDO
Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (ORLANDO) after 9 or more consecutive losses, second half of the season 78-38 since 1997. ( 67.2% | 36.2 units ) 3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 3.0 units )​
 
Betting Notes - Tuesday
•Hot Teams
-- Oklahoma City won its last four games.
-- Mavericks won six of their last nine games.
-- Knicks won eight of their last nine games.

•Cold Teams
-- Cleveland lost four of its last five games.
-- Raptors lost three of their last five.
-- Orlando lost its last nine games (3-6 vs. spread).
-- Portland lost seven of its last ten games.
-- Lakers lost seven of their last nine games.

•Totals
-- Four of last five Toronto games went over total.
-- Five of last six Portland games went over total.
-- Four of last five Thunder games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven New York games went over.

•Series Records
-- Raptors won seven of last ten games with Cleveland.
-- Trailblazers won five of last seven games with Orlando.
-- Thunder won seven of last eight games with Dallas.
-- Knicks won three of last four games with the Lakers.

Trends of The Day
•ORLANDO is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 92.7, OPPONENT 103.1.

•TORONTO is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 96.8, OPPONENT 91.2.

•NEW YORK is 21-4 (+16.6 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 54.1, OPPONENT 44.4.

•OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 57.6, OPPONENT 54.5.

•DWANE CASEY is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games against Central division opponents as the coach of TORONTO.
The average score was Casey 92.0, OPPONENT 92.2.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Road favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (TORONTO) - an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half.
(43-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (89.6%, +34.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -173
The average score in these games was: Team 106.7, Opponent 97.6 (Average point differential = +9.1)

The situation's record this season is: (7-1, +4.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-3, +18.2 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (125-40, +32.5 units).

-- Play Over - Any team (NEW YORK) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season.
(62-25 since 1996.) (71.3%, +34.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 196.2
The average score in these games was: Team 102.5, Opponent 101.9 (Total points scored = 204.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 49 (56.3% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (5-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).

-- Play On - Road teams versus the 1rst half line (PORTLAND) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=79%) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games.
(58-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.3%, +37.1 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 52.3, Opponent 50.7 (Average first half point differential = +1.6)

The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (121-99).
___________________________________________
 
edou1x said:
lean mavericks, toronto and portland. DAL is 19-10 ATS off a loss,good bounce back team, OKC in B2B. See a similar result to OKC-TOR where OKC won by 1 but lost as a 3 pt favorite. This game should be a pick'em with home court for DAL + westbrook back but not sure if 100%:Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival
123-48 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 49.8 units )

Also OKC won in High altitude yesterday in Denver
Click to expand...

Dallas losing by 1 works for me:dancing:
 
divol said:
Why Cleveland?
Click to expand...

The team is pretty solid in my eyes and has played very tough competition lately at home. Jack is contributing and waiters is finally being consistent and producing like coach brown expected before the season started. The raptors have beat teams that they should beat. The recent matchups were without Varejao and hopefully he can provide some defensive ability in the paint.
 
Dallas has gone a season high 6 home games without suffering a SU loss in regulation. Their previous longest home streaks this season have been (brackets = the streak ending result) -

4 games (lost by 9 as a Dog)
3 games (lost by 14 as a Fav)
3 games (lost by 16 as a Dog)
3 games (lost by 11 as a Dog)
0-4 ATS

They've also gone a season high 6 straight games w/out suffering a SU loss in regulation. Their previous longest overall streaks this season have been (brackets = the streak ending result) -

5 games (lost by 25 away as a Fav)
4 games (lost by 9 @home as a Fav)
4 games (lost by 2 away as a Dog)
3 games (lost by 15 away as a Fav)
3 games (lost by 7 @home as a Dog)
3 games (lost by 15 away as a Dog)
3 games (lost by 2 away as a Dog)
2-5 ATS

Now they have the Thunder & Clippers on deck, and, after the lousy Kings, the Warriors. Hard to imagine them extending both current streaks to 10 games.
 
Will Toronto compete or throw in the towel ... They play in Boston tomorrow night
 
Brutal defense by OKC in the final minutes of the 1st half. 3 straight 3's for Dallas to tie it up.
 
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