Tuesday 02/23/16 NBA discussion thread

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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL - TUE 2/23[/h][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Tue 2/23[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]701[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Orlando Magic[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-6 1.961[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.425[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 208.5 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]702[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Philadelphia 76ers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+6 1.943[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 3.100[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 208.5 1.909[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Tue 2/23[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]703[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]New Orleans Pelicans[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+5 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 2.719[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 213.5 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]704[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Washington Wizards[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-5 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.523[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 213.5 1.925[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Tue 2/23[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]705[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Houston Rockets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+5 1.943[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 2.750[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 202.5 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]06:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]706[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Utah Jazz[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-5 1.961[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.512[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 202.5 2.000[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Tue 2/23[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]707[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Sacramento Kings[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+1.5 1.961[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 2.070[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 223 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]06:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]708[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Denver Nuggets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-1.5 1.943[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.847[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 223 2.000[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Tue 2/23[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]709[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Brooklyn Nets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+11.5 1.934[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 7.210[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 210.5 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]07:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]710[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Portland Trail Blazers [/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-11.5 1.970[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.129[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 210.5 1.925[/TD]
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[divol]

My strongest lean so far is Houston. They are 2 - 0 against Utah this season so far (6 - 1 the last 2.5 seasons), being 3.5 points favorites in Utah (and winning, but not covering), when Utah played without Favors.
I agree that Favors is huge for them. The line up of Favors + Gubert is one of the best one in the league numbers wise and surely I agree with the bookies that Utah are red hot right now and Rockets are a mess.
Still, to warrant 8.5 points swing... You need something super mega big to happen and in my eyes, it's not the case.
Rockets are very uncomfortable team for Utah and I rate them and NO as two worst teams for Utah to play against (outside the contenders obviously). Both teams have good defensive presence in the paint and can produce points in the paint as well. There is a reason why Utah 1 - 4 against those two teams. Dwight
Rockets SU and +5 as a big bet for me (split it).

I like Orlando and Washington tonight, but not sure about the lines. As I see it, with Morris in the line up, Wizards can play very very well against NO small line up (and without Asik, I guess this line up will get big minutes), with Morris on Anderson and Gortat on Davis. No one can stop Davis, but Gortat can do a decent job to try and minimize the damage and Morris is the perfect PF against Anderson (and LeBron if needed - but getting ahead of myself).
Wall and Beal should go to work against NO depleted back court. Wizards won 7 games straight against NO, till Pels won this season at home by 2 points (but failed to cover), when NO was in full roster and Wizards had tons of injuries (Beal, Nene and many others). Still thinking about ATS, but loving the ML play together with the Magic.

As for Magic this is simple. Magic are 0 - 3 ATS this season as favorites of more than 5 points and 2 - 1 SU. The lone loss was... to the Sixers at home. The last 2.5 seasons, the record of teams revenging same season loss to the Sixers is 26 - 5 SU (unsurprisingly) and 18 - 1 SU with lines bigger than 5 points. ATS wise, things are more complicated and around 50%. Orlando still dreams about the playoffs and needs to win such games for sure and no one wants to lose twice to bad teams in one season. Magic played pretty well against Dallas and Indiana, but that worth nothing if they lose tonight.
Wizards + Magic ML parlay gives pretty decent odds (2.10+ odds)

Between the two, I like Wizards ATS much more than Magic ATS...

Denver - Kings is not an easy game to cap. Kings, Nuggets and Pels are trying to make the playoffs race from three teams race for the final two spots (Portland, Utah and Houston) to wide open race and Nuggets are on a verge of dropping out of this race, trailing by 6 games (Kings trail by 4 games). Over is the obvious choice, with all four games last year going Over the total and the lone game this season so far going Over as well and it happened only 4 days ago. Both teams like the fast pace and I just don't see any reason for it to change.
The minuses are the fact that this is basically B2B meeting between the teams (Kings didn't play any team after the Nuggets and Denver played Boston) and there is always a danger of zig zag effect in such spots, with Denver and Under. On the other hand, teams played each other B2B last season as well and Kings won both, with both games going Over the total by more than 10 points each.
Lean Kings and Over, still thinking here...

Have zero opinion about Blazers - Nets game.

 

[Tito]

I looked at anything under 6 pts, the Magic as road favs this year are 4-0 ats

 

[divol]

I looked at anything under 6 pts, the Magic as road favs this year are 4-0 ats

But line is 6 points and at least for me, I was curious overall, how bad teams do as big favorites, the result actually pretty decent.
Around 57% - 59% the last 2.5 seasons.

51-20 (6.03, 71.8%) 41-30-0 (0.50, 57.7%) avg line: -5.5 40-31-0 (0.14, 56.3%) avg total: 200.2 <tbody> [TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH] [TH="align: center"]ATS:[/TH] [TH="align: center"]O/U:[/TH] </tbody>

<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]WP < 50 and AF and season > 2012 and line < -3 and month in [1 , 2 , 3][/TH]

</tbody>

I made the months specification so that good teams that started the season poorly for some reason, wouldn't be there, but even if we remove the months, we get even better percentage.

 

[divol]

Thank you Zach Lowe! Been saying that for years now!!! Just mind blowing!!!

[h=3]4. Teams that STILL don't stagger minutes[/h]How is this still a thing? How do coaches who have (presumably) watched Gregg Popovich and Rick Carlisle pepper every lineup with one alpha creator for a decade-plus still manage to roll out punchless bench mobs?
When TNT and ESPN broadcast Thunder games, they are ready at the start of every second quarter with camera shots of Westbrook and Durant on the bench -- a cue for the analysts to discuss how Billy Donovan adheres to this insane holdover policy from the Scott Brooks era. You can watch the games on mute, and follow the conversation.
On Sunday against the Hornets, Brooklyn started the second quarter with all three of Joe Johnson, Thaddeus Young and Brook Lopez on the bench -- and a lineup of Shane Larkin, Markel Brown, Bojan Bogdanovic, Thomas Robinson and Chris McCullough. This may shock you, but Charlotte held that lineup to seven points in five minutes, and opened up a huge lead before Nets interim coach Tony Brown subbed Lopez back in.
Coaches: Stop doing this.

 

[nbafan88]

The players are just as much to blame, divol. Durant likes playing the entire 3rd quarter so you have to get him rest in the 2nd. There are pros and cons of this during the regular season..... in the playoffs this way of playing is just plain stupid.... and the problem becomes the players arent used to it in the playoffs and their play suffers

 

[tuck321]

My strongest lean so far is Houston. They are 2 - 0 against Utah this season so far (6 - 1 the last 2.5 seasons), being 3.5 points favorites in Utah (and winning, but not covering), when Utah played without Favors.
I agree that Favors is huge for them. The line up of Favors + Gubert is one of the best one in the league numbers wise and surely I agree with the bookies that Utah are red hot right now and Rockets are a mess.
Still, to warrant 8.5 points swing... You need something super mega big to happen and in my eyes, it's not the case.
Rockets are very uncomfortable team for Utah and I rate them and NO as two worst teams for Utah to play against (outside the contenders obviously). Both teams have good defensive presence in the paint and can produce points in the paint as well. There is a reason why Utah 1 - 4 against those two teams. Dwight
Rockets SU and +5 as a big bet for me (split it).
Stick with the plus 5. They do not win this game with their road record and these refs
Actually that might not be true. The Rockets are 18-6 last 24 playing on Tuesday


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[nbafan88]

Utah is the better all around team IMO

 

[divol]

Starting to get much better read on the teams. Hope the bad spell is behind...

 

[nbafan88]

Good job today divol. Even tho I took Utah.... The Rockets deserved that cover. Harden is unguardable