trying to Middle the Championship game

[honez1414]

I've never tried this before so correct me if I'm about to get this wrong. I'd like to middle the championship game. At 5dimes I can get ND +10.5 and +3.5 depending on the opponent. If I'm counting on ND action to move the line once the opponent is decided I should buy ND at these lines now and then buy bama or ga at a more favorable line closer to game time right? I'm pretty sure I've got that right but am I way off on thinking that ND will get a lot of backing and move the line?

And because the above difference is 7, should I consider GA +8.5 versus Bama a value?

Thanks for the help and opinions.

 

[cubsker]

If you think the lines are wrong, bet. If not, dont. Thinking nd will have favorable LM just because they have a lot of fans is fairly silly though.

 

[GoIrish!]

agree with cubsker...although the ND fan base is nothing short of huge....the whole SEC will be on the SEC team...but even if that is not true it won't make a difference.

 

[honez1414]

thinking that heavy public money on ND will move the line is silly? not being confrontational, just want to hear more.

 

[cubsker]

You think square nd money will outnumber sharp money? No.

 

[honez1414]

Yes i do think that. I don't believe the sharps ever come close to putting up money that the square public can in big games with as much national interest as this one will have. That being said, i checked on line moves when ND was a dog this year and there wasn't anything that supported a big move. So I think you may be right on the line not moving much but I don't necessarily agree with the sharp money angle.

 

[Streakin]

why will the ND money automatically be "square"?

 

[Streakin]

and would anyone here know what is "square" and what is "sharp"?

I understand the terms to mean what line you get, not whethere you are wiseguy or weekend warrior.

 

[honez1414]

why will the ND money automatically be "square"?

^^^^^^^^

 

[honez1414]

and would anyone here know what is "square" and what is "sharp"?

I understand the terms to mean what line you get, not whethere you are wiseguy or weekend warrior.

i think that's all determined in hindsight

 

[cubsker]

why will the ND money automatically be "square"?

It wont, but wasnt that the whole point of the OP? Read my entire original post itt.

 

[honez1414]

i think what i've learned is to not force the middle. If i see something i like, take it. and if the middle presents itself later, go for it. thanks cubsker.

 

[165yds]

ND will win outright.

 

[raems]

I too think ND wins the game