True Flat Betting - Vanzack style....

[RambleOn]

Wanted to hear what some thought about this theory.

A lot of people say they "flat bet", but most, dare I say all, don't really know what flat betting is. Betting "to win" 1 unit isn't really flat betting, and I don't think that is more apparent than in the sport of baseball.

When it comes down to this sport, those who "bet to win" (1) unit are actually overvaluing each play the more it proceeds from +100.

Take for example a day when you are betting a -200 favorite and a +150 dog....

Your bets are:

200 to win 100
100 to win 150

Which one would you rather win? Well, if you had to pick ONE, it would be the -200 favorite, because you win and break even. If you only won the other one, you are down $50. This is a simple example of how this is not flatbetting. You are valuing the -200 bet MUCH more than the other. Now, a true flat bet, with $100 units, you'd be looking at this:

133.33 to win 66.67 (-200)
80 to win 120 (+150)

Now which one would you rather win? It doesn't matter - you go 1-1 in this scenario and lose the same amount either way. (13.33)

For anyone interested, the formulas are as follows:

FOR A FAVORITE: Bet Size = 2U/((100/ODDS) + 1)
FOR AN UNDERDOG: Bet Size = 2U/((ODDS/100) + 1))

There is a good thread on Blankets about this than Vanzack started. Guy knows his shit. Just thought I would share.

 

[~Utah]

I read this thread and I actually do this in NHL. For example today I took Calgary +120, Philly -122. I dont do it in baseball because I always take 4 or 5 games and it could go either way. But I think this is a good idea.

 

[RambleOn]

One thing I want to point out before someone comes in here trying to prove me wrong:

This won't work for everyone. This will work BEST for someone who is 50/50 at picking favorites and dogs right.

People who hit favorites at a much higher clip than they do dogs, and vice versa, would not benefit from "flat betting". This is so because the person who is hitting the dogs more is overvaluing them more, and therefore profiting. The same goes for favorites.

However, if you're decent at both, and know you can pick above 53 point whatever percent over the long haul....you should look into TRUE flat betting...

 

[RambleOn]

Edited this babble of a post. :smiley_acbe:

 

[RambleOn]

I guess no one wants to talk theory at 2:28 AM. Where are Sammy and Mogo when I need them? (See the variable probability thread)

Okay, we'll discuss tomorrow. Bed. Time.

 

[mogo]

i think i have now seen the light as well.....!!!

 

[mogo]

btw - i discussed the variable probability example with a few of my firends and everyone refused to believe you HAVE to switch.... they all wanted to fight me over me saying it is not 50/50...

that is until i showed them the example we used (assigning the doors and going through the example), and even then i don't think any of them really believed it...

 

[Blue_Chip]

It was a good thread, and I agree with him. The guy does know his stuff...

 

[horses]

Agreed with you Ramble on everything till this:

With a true flat betting method, you go 2-2 and you are dead even instead of down .2 units.

If you go 2-2 with -110 juice, you are not dead even; you may not be down the entire .2 units, but you are still down some juice.

Very good info...:shake:

 

[ISU74]

Good Post Ramble..Shine On You Crazy Diamond

 

[RambleOn]

Agreed with you Ramble on everything till this:

With a true flat betting method, you go 2-2 and you are dead even instead of down .2 units.

If you go 2-2 with -110 juice, you are not dead even; you may not be down the entire .2 units, but you are still down some juice.

Very good info...:shake:

Yeah I misspoke.

 

[Joe Public]

Yeah, Van's smart, I wish he'd post over here more. It's hard to wade through the idiots that he attracts over there. Of course, that's part of why he posts there so, you know, what are you going to do.

 

[Blue_Chip]

It's hard to wade through the idiots that he attracts over there. Of course, that's part of why he posts there so, you know, what are you going to do.

I don't get it, Joe. I know plenty of solid guys that are addicted to the drama. I would think they would rather post thoughts, stats, plays, etc and get practical feedback rather than see what bashers show up when you lose.

 

[Gandolf]

Which one would you rather win? Well, if you had to pick ONE, it would be the -200 favorite, because you win and break even. If you only won the other one, you are down $50. This is a simple example of how this is not flatbetting. You are valuing the -200 bet MUCH more than the other. Now, a true flat bet, with $100 units, you'd be looking at this:

133.33 to win 66.67 (-200)
80 to win 120 (+150)

Now which one would you rather win? It doesn't matter - you go 1-1 in this scenario and you are DEAD even, whereas in the other scenario you are even or down $50.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but the outlay on these two bets is 213.33. If I go 1-1 either way I'm down 13.33. So you don't come out dead even, it's just that you come out with the same result regardless of which one wins.

 

[RambleOn]

Gandolf-

Yep, it was way too late last night for me to be starting threads, lol.

My mind was in one place and my typing hand was in another.

 

[RambleOn]

I meant that not matter which bet you chose they are valued the same, but I explained it WAY wrong. Sorry. It was 3AM. Lol.

 

[~Utah]

He has some good theories but his arrogance has always just blowed my fucking mind

 

[chancedog]

I'm with Alex, arrogance is putting it nicely

 

[Timh]

I'm with Alex, arrogance is putting it nicely

How about double jointed, as in blowing his own horn :smiley_acbe:

 

[~Utah]

I dont believe most of the shit he says. This is a copy and paste of something he wrote recently..

1. Type A gamblers (95%) - gamble for fun, entertainment, action junkies, chase, bet teasers and negative EV parlays, use CC to fund their accounts, think of gambling money as rent money or spending money, bet haphazardly, dont understand or care to understand theory, never introspect about how to get better, are jealous, dont understand those who win, believe myths about gambling, believe in luck, believe in non correlated trends, dont care to know math or probability, talk about fixes, talk about their own bad luck, criticize anyone who wins, theorize about how people win incorrectly, put emphasis on all the wrong things, spend all their time searching for the winner of the day, are emotional and let their emotions rule them and their decisions, and lose money. These are the equivalent of cavemen looking up at the stars, hypothesizing about how a world they dont understand works.

2. Type B gamblers (5%) - Everything is done to make money, treat gambling as a business, understand winners are not the most important thing in making money, use advanced techniques to make the most money, constantly evaluate process rather than handicapping, use methods other than handicapping to make money, dont chase, dont bet for action, pick their spots, are emotionless, are like machines, understand math and probability, and make money.

Now - its no surprise that 95% of the posters in this thread, and 95% of the posters on covers are type A gamblers, and its no surprise either the jealously of me in this thread. You guys just dont get it, probably never will because you dont have the patience or the fortitude, and you will always be on the sidelines losing money wondering with your buddies (the majority) "how can anyone make money doing this"?

All I can tell you is that I have made money the last 7 years doing this. I can also tell you that there are plenty of others here who are professionals and make money too - I know this for a fact. The bottom line is that I can make more money going 53% than you morons can going 60% - you can laugh all you want but it is your own defense system doing the laughing - because you know its true. I cant post on covers all the times I make money without even making a bet, or how I can make money live betting, or how I sell games off at HT, or all of the other strategies I employ - you guys dont understand all of this - all you understand is the "winner of the day mentality".

Ever wonder why the most popular threads (besides the ones about me) are the ones with the hot handicapper of the day? Pucku or matrixxx or whatever - ever look in those threads and see who is posting there? Guys with less than 3 months on covers.... and ever say to yourself "I wonder why that is?" Why isnt the guys posting in Puckus threads today going to be in the guy who is hot handicappers threads 4 months from now? Because he is already broke. Because he has no idea, even with Puckus picks how to make money and he is BROKE. Dont you morons get this? Look at the date next to my name. You think Im losing year after year after year? You think I post the insight I do, without having some clue as to what Im doing? You know better.

Now, I will answer questions if you like. St Vincent is a nice place but the supermodels are getting antsy to head down to Curacao to party with the boys from Pinny, so Im going to set sail this evening, but I will check back to this thread. I always like helping the boys at covers. I barely even post in the regular forums anymore because the PBOX Nation are the only ones who can talk about hgih level theory anymore - if you post out in the baseball forum you get drowned off the first page in an hour because of all of your "pick of the day" threads - and all of you idiots keep losing money and dont know why - cavemen looking up at the stars.

And for those who say "nobody who bets XXX would post on covers" or "nobody who does this for a living would post on covers" - let me explain something to you: Its relatively a boring solitary existence gambling for a living. You morons have the distraction of going to your mundane 9-5 existence every day which provides the necessary social outlets for you to get through the day. Why wouldnt a gambler seek out people of like mind to "hang out with" even if it is on a message board? You guys dont get it, people like me are MORE likely to post here than you idiots who might get the boss mad if he sees you on here. Cavemen.

If I had a nickel for every time I met a group of guys as dumb as the guys on covers, Id have 5 cents right now.

 

[~Utah]

ive always wondered if hes so far and above everybody at covers then why is he posting there? I consider myself a type A better, a guy who bets for shits and giggles, and I dont do it really hardcore...but...

1. Never have I bet a parlay in my life
2. Never have I bet a teaser in my life
3. Never have I thought a game was fixed or has the thought really ever crossed my mind

As you can see I dont have all winning records, and Im ok with that I do what I can, so this makes me an idiot because I cant compile a winning record? Im a caveman looking at the stars as he says. Just blows my mind some of the shit he says.