Troy vs. Duke Birmingham Bowl 2023 Best Bets: Troy On The Warpath
Troy Trojans vs. Duke Blue Devils
Saturday, December 23, 2023 at noon ET at Protective Stadium in Birmingham
Troy's Motivation
The Trojans will be the first team from the Sun Belt to compete against a team from a Power Five conference in a bowl game.
Coming from a Group of Five conference, Troy is going to be amped to play a team from the ACC.
Regardless of who they play, the Trojans are already a program that is motivated to win their bowl game. They've won five straight bowl games, which is the nation's second-longest streak.
Under their current head coach, Jon Sumrall, they've won one bowl game so far -- last year, they beat ranked UTSA in the Cure Bowl 18-12.
Sun Belt vs. ACC
Troy will be far from intimidated against a Power Five opponent.
The Trojans have seen other Sun Belt teams this season succeed or come very close to succeeding against ACC teams.
For example, App State, a team that Troy just blew out, took North Carolina to overtime, a team that edged out Duke in double overtime.
To be clear, I am not basing my investment in Troy on any kind of transitive property reasoning.
My only point is that the Trojans should feel confident in their chances against an ACC team.
Duke's Motivation
In every bowl season, teams lose interest because bowl games have, for many people, lost their inherent meaningfulness.
I can't imagine Duke having the same motivation to beat Troy that Troy must have to beat Duke.
Troy is a lower-profile team from a small conference, so beating this team can't be exciting an exciting for Duke.
Plus, the Blue Devils team is somewhat in shambles right now.
Their head coach is no longer there: Mike Elko left Duke to take the head coaching job at Texas A&M.
Plenty of players have also announced their intention to leave Duke.
Including the team's initial starting quarterback when the season began, Riley Leonard, six starters for the team have entered the transfer portal.
Four of those starters play defense and one is running back Jordan Waters.
Unlike Duke, the Troy team remains intact.
Duke's Quarterback Situation
With Leonard in the transfer portal, we should expect Grayson Loftis to continue starting for the Blue Devils.
Loftis represents a major drop-off in quality from Leonard, who could take over games with his play-making and dual-threat abilities.
The former lacks Leonard's running prowess yet also often struggles with efficiency, barely completing over half his passes on the season.
Missing Jordan Waters
Not having Jordan Waters places the onus on Jaquez Moore to lead Duke's ground game.
There isn't really anything bad to say about Moore himself, but he did form a nice one-two punch with Waters, as they split carries with each other.
There is a blatant drop-off after these two running backs, so the quality of Duke's overall rushing attack will still take a strong hit.
But there has also been speculation that Moore, too, will enter the transfer portal, in which case Duke's running game will be severely depleted.
On Facing A Tougher Defense
Duke lost two of its last three games despite getting to face softer defenses.
The Blue Devils lost to a Virginia team that ranks 120th nationally in scoring defense and to a North Carolina defense that ranks 80th in the category.
Troy is going to pose a new sort of challenge for Duke's hamstrung offense, as the Trojans rank seventh nationally in scoring defense and are solid both against the pass and against the run.
The Trojans enjoy a lot of depth in their defensive front, which enables them to limit opposing rush attacks and to force offenses into difficult third-and-long situations.
Loftis will frequently be a sitting duck for the nation's fourth-best pass rushing unit.
Troy's Complete Offense
The Trojans enter this game having exceeded 30 points in four straight games.
Gunnar Watson is your prototypical pocket quarterback who will stand tall and deliver accurate passes via good arm strength.
EDGE RJ Oben and defensive lineman Aeneas Peebles combined for nine sacks for a Duke team that ranks about average in sack rate, yet both players are in the transfer portal.
Running back Kimani Vidal for Troy, who has 1,582 yards on 5.7 YPC, will keep the Trojans offense balanced.
Duke is pretty middle-of-the-road defensively, most recently allowing backup quarterbacks from Pitt and Virginia to be highly efficient, even while both opponents possessed rushing attacks that are relatively tame compared to what the Trojans will offer.
Final Thoughts
Even if the Blue Devils were motivated, this is a tough opponent for them to keep pace with, especially given their reduced star power.
Although, it won't take much scoring for them to help the game "over" the low posted total, especially since there will be garbage time scoring opportunities in what will be a strong Troy win.
Best Bet: Troy -7 at -110 with Bet365 & over 44 at -110 with Bet365
Troy Trojans vs. Duke Blue Devils
Saturday, December 23, 2023 at noon ET at Protective Stadium in Birmingham
Troy's Motivation
The Trojans will be the first team from the Sun Belt to compete against a team from a Power Five conference in a bowl game.
Coming from a Group of Five conference, Troy is going to be amped to play a team from the ACC.
Regardless of who they play, the Trojans are already a program that is motivated to win their bowl game. They've won five straight bowl games, which is the nation's second-longest streak.
Under their current head coach, Jon Sumrall, they've won one bowl game so far -- last year, they beat ranked UTSA in the Cure Bowl 18-12.
Sun Belt vs. ACC
Troy will be far from intimidated against a Power Five opponent.
The Trojans have seen other Sun Belt teams this season succeed or come very close to succeeding against ACC teams.
For example, App State, a team that Troy just blew out, took North Carolina to overtime, a team that edged out Duke in double overtime.
To be clear, I am not basing my investment in Troy on any kind of transitive property reasoning.
My only point is that the Trojans should feel confident in their chances against an ACC team.
Duke's Motivation
In every bowl season, teams lose interest because bowl games have, for many people, lost their inherent meaningfulness.
I can't imagine Duke having the same motivation to beat Troy that Troy must have to beat Duke.
Troy is a lower-profile team from a small conference, so beating this team can't be exciting an exciting for Duke.
Plus, the Blue Devils team is somewhat in shambles right now.
Their head coach is no longer there: Mike Elko left Duke to take the head coaching job at Texas A&M.
Plenty of players have also announced their intention to leave Duke.
Including the team's initial starting quarterback when the season began, Riley Leonard, six starters for the team have entered the transfer portal.
Four of those starters play defense and one is running back Jordan Waters.
Unlike Duke, the Troy team remains intact.
Duke's Quarterback Situation
With Leonard in the transfer portal, we should expect Grayson Loftis to continue starting for the Blue Devils.
Loftis represents a major drop-off in quality from Leonard, who could take over games with his play-making and dual-threat abilities.
The former lacks Leonard's running prowess yet also often struggles with efficiency, barely completing over half his passes on the season.
Missing Jordan Waters
Not having Jordan Waters places the onus on Jaquez Moore to lead Duke's ground game.
There isn't really anything bad to say about Moore himself, but he did form a nice one-two punch with Waters, as they split carries with each other.
There is a blatant drop-off after these two running backs, so the quality of Duke's overall rushing attack will still take a strong hit.
But there has also been speculation that Moore, too, will enter the transfer portal, in which case Duke's running game will be severely depleted.
On Facing A Tougher Defense
Duke lost two of its last three games despite getting to face softer defenses.
The Blue Devils lost to a Virginia team that ranks 120th nationally in scoring defense and to a North Carolina defense that ranks 80th in the category.
Troy is going to pose a new sort of challenge for Duke's hamstrung offense, as the Trojans rank seventh nationally in scoring defense and are solid both against the pass and against the run.
The Trojans enjoy a lot of depth in their defensive front, which enables them to limit opposing rush attacks and to force offenses into difficult third-and-long situations.
Loftis will frequently be a sitting duck for the nation's fourth-best pass rushing unit.
Troy's Complete Offense
The Trojans enter this game having exceeded 30 points in four straight games.
Gunnar Watson is your prototypical pocket quarterback who will stand tall and deliver accurate passes via good arm strength.
EDGE RJ Oben and defensive lineman Aeneas Peebles combined for nine sacks for a Duke team that ranks about average in sack rate, yet both players are in the transfer portal.
Running back Kimani Vidal for Troy, who has 1,582 yards on 5.7 YPC, will keep the Trojans offense balanced.
Duke is pretty middle-of-the-road defensively, most recently allowing backup quarterbacks from Pitt and Virginia to be highly efficient, even while both opponents possessed rushing attacks that are relatively tame compared to what the Trojans will offer.
Final Thoughts
Even if the Blue Devils were motivated, this is a tough opponent for them to keep pace with, especially given their reduced star power.
Although, it won't take much scoring for them to help the game "over" the low posted total, especially since there will be garbage time scoring opportunities in what will be a strong Troy win.
Best Bet: Troy -7 at -110 with Bet365 & over 44 at -110 with Bet365
