Troy @ Boise State

[JohnnyGambler]

This line looks like it's a least a TD off.

Boise went 10-2 last year but just weren't the same Boise of old. The Peterson effect is slowly starting to fade off. They were blown out in the bowl game and the slow bleed was evidenced by their 3-10 ATS record...this team is much more reputation than actual substance.

Boise returns stud QB Brett Rypien, but they lose almost everything else on offense. Jeremy McNichols was a horse at RB and will be sorely missed. He was also a dynamite receiving back who caught 88% of his targets. At WR, the Broncos return ONE player who has caught more than 10 balls. Making matters worse Boise also losing three OL who started 38+ games.

Defensively the Broncos are young as hell. 62% of the two-deep is freshmen and sophmores. They lost all their starting LB from last year and will be trotting out two walk-ons this year. The secondary also lost 4 of their 6 top defensive backs.

Troy on the other hand looks like a rising team and is one of the best group of 5 teams. They return a great QB in Silvers and every single RB and WR. They lost some guys in the front 7 which would normally hurt but with Boise young on OL and unproven at RB, the Broncos look to be a passing team that throws into a Top 25 secondary from last year that will only get better returning 6 of 7 defensive backs.

This one means much more to Troy too. They are talking this game up as a "measuring stick game" after a great season last year, but one which felt a little empty at the end after they fell by just 6 to Clemson and pissed away the conference lead.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good take, thanks for posting. Always good to see a solid write-up.

 

[EFC1878]

South Point actually opened this at -5 and took a slew of immediate Boise money. What I'm not sure of is if those first hitters were taking a position or if they actually liked Boise. It certainly opened up some nice middle opportunities for those that got the early number. But that opener does show that at least one prominent bookmaker agrees with you from a power ratings standpoint. I took Boise win total over this year, but that was purely a numbers play based on perceived value since over 8 -135 was available to me and the Vegas books were at 8.5 -140 at the same time. As you pointed out, there are a lot of questions facing this team. I'm going to stay away from this particular game but if I had to take a side I'd definitely be with you. I just don't know Troy well enough to make an informed wager at this point.

 

[wiseplayer]

Good stuff. 4.5 months of bliss coming up!

 

[RetroVK]

Really is a huge downgrade for Boise State at the HC position and the ship gets a few more leaks each year Harsin is around. Talent level of the recruits doesn't seem to be on par and I suppose they did have the scholarships taken away for the rules violations back in 2011 to explain some of that. Boise State had that stretch where they covered at home all the time but lately that hasn't been the case ... at all. Their HFA has to be considered normalized at this point. Troy was pretty solid on the road last year too.

Nice Write-up

 

[CrimsonK]

I don't have anything on this game nor am I involved in futures with either team. I would just say two things from a personnel standpoint - Boise's leading returning WR, Cedrick Wilson, is a really, really good player. He's amongst the top 10 G5 WRs, IMO. That being said, after him there is a good bit of uncertainty. Also, Alexander Mattison will be filing McNichols' shoes and I think he is another guy that is a top young RB in CFB - Wolpin is a very capable RB2. Mattison is another back in the mold of recent NFL backs from there. The losses on the OL could prove to be significant, that is my main question mark with them. So I guess all I wanted to really comment on is while those skill position losses may seem very pronounced on paper, I don't think they will actually play out that way. Enjoyed the write up and think I would lean your way and take the points with a pretty good Troy team!

 

[Inspekdah]

I often took my chips back to the table with the late night Boise play for the past several seasons and it was at worst a coin flip. But last year, you're right, 3-10 and often outplayed by far worse schools.

 

[bull]

Had this one circled, and you have done a much better job explaining why, mr. gambler.
Best of luck to you:shake: