Trends and Things

[johnci]

RobertoFiory did this in the NFL on Covers, I figured why not try in hoops. I am going to post all of the strongest trends for each game, and pick the strongest trend on the board each night. Purely experimental, and it will give us a chance to discuss what trends matter, and what trends are there to trick the suckers and fools throwing their money away (not us).

 

[redbearde]

That's a great idea, bro. We'd love that addition in here.

:shake:

 

[johnci]

Chicago/Washington

Bulls are 6-1ATS on Wednesday games(86%)
We've got to throw this one out, there can't be any merit to it.

Bulls are 5-1ATS after a SU loss (83%)

Over is 6-1 in Wizard's last 7 as a fave(86%)
Over is 5-1-1 In Bulls' games against teams with a SU winning record (83%)
Over is 8-2 in Bulls' games against teams with winning home record (80%)
Probably can throw this out as it undoubtably is tied to the previous trend as well, and I don't think you should count trends twice.

The over looks pretty trendy in CHI/WAS

 

[johnci]

Thanks, Red. I think when I have some time I will look into how RF dressed his threads up to make the best stats jump out. Also I need to find out if he got his stats from Covers, another source, or private research. I only have Covers as a resource.

 

[johnci]

New Orleans @ Atlanta

Yuck. Do we even want to look at a game involving these two?

N.O. is 1-4ATS L5 against teams with a SU losing record (80%)
I don't know if we should consider trends that involve such a small sample size. But none of the other trends involving N.O. say much, such as being 4-0ATS in their L4 vs. the NBA Southeast. If a play against N.O. winds up being the trend of the day, we should use their L5 vs. teams with a losing record with a grain of salt. It does suggest however that the Bobcats are playing down to competition.

Hawks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 0 days rest(69%)

O/U

Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game(83%)
Over is 11-5-1 in Hawks last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400(69%)
Over is 5-1 in Hornets last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home(83%)
Over is 40-17-1 in Hornets last 58 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400(70%)

I don't know how I feel about using stats from what could be as long as two seasons ago, but it could be telling that both of these teams seem to play an over style of ball against weaker competition.

 

[redbearde]

http://basketball.pinnaclesports.com/

that's another option.

enjoy.

 

[antmagic219]

Not a bad Idea


WAGERING......FAVORS THE PREPARED MIND

 

[johnci]

Indiana @ Boston

Boston is 2-8 ATS L10 after losing previous game ATS (80%)
Pacers are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game(75%)
Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.(83%)

Strong trend towards IND here...

O/U

Under is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games following a ATS loss(83%)
Over is 6-1 in Pacers last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record(86%)

Can't make a lot out of the total here, but just looking at the trends, maybe a play if they open Ind as a 4pt fave or less?

 

[johnci]

I'll do another game later tonight, this stuff is tedious and no fun!

 

[johnci]

And if anyone else wants to pick a game apart, feel free.

 

[johnci]

From here on out, I am throwing out any trend with a sample size of 5 games or less, just to make the trend more definite, and less susceptible to variability. I passed my stats course this semester, I think that makes sense.

76ers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a losing SU record(71%)
Knicks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.(82%)
Under is 6-1 in 76ers last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record(86%)
Under is 6-0 in Knicks last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game(100%)


I can't imagine finding a stronger trend than 100% supported by 86%, but I will keep looking. CWebb sitting out might make this even better.

 

[johnci]

I am going to skip Toronto and Milwalkee, hard to see how trends come into effect with MIL's team chemistry so different.

On to...
San Antonio @ Denver

Spurs are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games(72%)
Spurs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win(71%)
Nuggets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.(80%)
Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall(83%)

Under is 9-2 in Spurs last 11 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record(82%)
Under is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 overall(86%)
Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 games following a S.U. win(86%)
Under is 8-2 in Nuggets last 10 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record(80%)

Trends point strongly to under here.

 

[reNew Orleans]

I'll do another game later tonight, this stuff is tedious and no fun!

we appreciate the effort. :cheers:

but i agree lol

 

[johnci]

Yeah I dunno if I can do this for a full card when the Spring semester starts, at least not until NFL winds up. But I think it might be valuable, we will see. It's going to suck balls when I finish a couple hours of work in this thread and the pick misses by a bucket or two..

 

[johnci]

Blazers @ Mavericks

Trail Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog(78%)
Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest(100%)
Under is 7-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record(86%)
Under is 6-1 in Mavericks last 7 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record(86%)

Strong Under play here, and it fits Ragingstorm's system...

 

[johnci]

Clips @ T-Wolves

Clippers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog(90%)
Timberwolves are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. Western Conference(75%)
Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a S.U. win(83%)
Over is 6-0 in Timberwolves last 6 games following a S.U. win(100%)

 

[johnci]

Out of time, trend picks for tonight are:
NYK/PHL Under
and
Dallas spread