Tracking new stat

[Redscot]

Good day fella's.

I have started to track a new stat, (#'s provided by fangraphs), to see if it is worth anything as a tool in capping. Sample sizes are still small, but figured I'd get it going anyway as best I can with the time I have available.

Basically it pits SP's who are in the top 10-15 or so in throwing a particular pitch (volume wise, not necessarily in effectiveness) against the team they match up against's weighted success against that particular pitch. The wFB/C represents run diff. over a 100 pitches (in this case the FastBall). Most scores range in the 2 to -2 range, so anything over 1 or -1 would "äppear""to be significant so only going to post the results that approach or exceed the 1 or -1 range atm.

April 22nd:

McHugh #4 in CT 37.9%
#6 in CB 30.9%

Redsox 5th worse in wCT/C -1.8
2nd worse in wCB/C - 2.02



Cosart #12 in FB 70.5%

Giants #5 wFB/C .88



Moscot #4 in SL 38.2%

Cubs #3 in wSL/C 1.08



Sabbathia #4 in CT 33.2%

Rays #11 in wCT/C 1.02



Tomlin #8 in CT 30.3%

Tigers #10 in wCT/C 1.19



Nola #4 in CB 33.2%

Brewcrew #3 in wCB/C 2.58



Wainwright #8 in CB 30.6%

Padres #28 in wCB/C - 1.51

 

[CollegeKingRex]

always interested in seeing new angles. Leaned Houston tonight; you just listed two good reasons (in addition to Wright) to play them

:shake:

 

[DapperDan]

Nice work here. I have always followed these weighted line values vs pitch types.

I actually just made some data sheets exported from fangraphs that I use going back to '14 with team averages, last night. I used the teams current active roster and required a PA of 150 to remove any pitchers.

these few matchup from data from 2014 up to this season yesterday 4/21/16 with your '16 data

Rays #1 vs wCT/C at 1.3
(note CC barely ever used his cutter prior to this season but now using 36%)

Tigers #2 vs wCT/c at 1.02

Padres #27 vs wCB/c at -.33

 

[Redscot]

Always looking for any little bit extra Rex :cheers3:, really can't put too much weight into the numbers as of yet, just too little data so far. If it were later in the season that McHugh/Sox match up would definitely look like the perfect fucking storm! For instance ATM the FB volatility swings from like +1.5 to -1.5 (being the pitch most thrown) and the others have bigger swings atm. I assume as the season progresses we will see the high's and lows being much less radical. BTW, I am no mathematician, just like to dabble in shit.

Dapper Dan (always brings to mind Tyson giving Mitch Green an eye jammy) that is sweet. As I reread my original post I thought to my self that I should rephrase the "new" stat, as it is just new to me! Thanks for sharing that work you put in. I'm gonna try to keep track here of the most glaring match up's daily, if any, and welcome your input and past data with open arms. :shake:

 

[Redscot]

Missed a glaring one for tonight:

C Young #1 in SL 53.7%

Orioles #1 in wSL/C 1.66

 

[DapperDan]

Yea I just started following this stat since the beginning of the season as well so I dont really know how effective it is either in tracking

Also worth noting as far as the BOS/HOU matchup

Wright throws the KN 86% of the time
Hou lineup thru '14 hit wKN/C at 2.795

 

[Redscot]

Yea I just started following this stat since the beginning of the season as well so I dont really know how effective it is either in tracking

Also worth noting as far as the BOS/HOU matchup

Wright throws the KN 86% of the time
Hou lineup thru '14 hit wKN/C at 2.795

Nice Dapper D, just having another quick look through card, missed a few while at work earlier. Iwakuma is # 2 in SF % but Angels SS way to small against that pitch to even bother atm.

 

[Redscot]

To illustrate the high volatility of these numbers this early in the season I present exhibit A:

The Redsox entering last nights game against the CT, CH happy McHugh were wCT/C -1.8 and wCH/C -2.02, after last nights game those numbers reduced to wCT/C -.75 and wCH/C -.76....

So as stated earlier, especially with the secondary pitches it is too early to draw solid conclusions. Anyway, gonna keep tracking here and if we reach a point in the season where the numbers seem to be stabilizing I'll just contribute the daily info in the daily discussion thread.

Not looking for the magic bullet here, just trying to see if this is worth incorporating into capping a game.

4/23

Maeda SL% 29.7

Rockies #6 in wSL/C at .64 (the slider has the lowest # of positive results of all pitches so .64 may
be significant down the road)

Facing Maeda is Chatwood who throws 72% FB which the Dodgers have a positive correlation although not eye popping.


Nicasio FB 71.1%
SL 24.9%

Diamondbacks #1 wFB/C 1.54
#30 wSL/C -2.54
******caveat****** Nicasio's splits against R/L..

Others pitchers who throw FB at least 65% or secondary at least 25% but with no significant opponent batting advantage/disadvantage:

SL - Lackey, Straily, Lewis,

CB - Morton, Hernandez

FB - Rodon

CT - Peavy, Buchholz

CH - Hernandez

SF - Tanaka

 

[Redscot]

Love me a rainy morning Sunday and a day full of action!
4/24

Eickhoff CB 31.2%
Brewcrew #6 wCB/C .87 ***3rd straight game against a RH SP that features a CB as secondary pitch***

Peralta SL 30%
Phils wSL/C #23 -1.18


Conley FB 69.9%
Giants #5 wFB/C .91


Liriano SL 30.3%
DBacks Last wSL/C -2.41

Ray FB 72.9%
Pirates #4 wFB/C 1.05


Pineda SL 36.7%
Rays #25 wSL/C -1.5


Greene CT 43.4%
Inidans #22 wCT/C -1.13


Owens (2015) CH 23.7 %
Stros #1 wCH/C 2.49

Feldman CT 40.7%
Redsox #24 wCT/C -1.2

 

[bloodhound]

Good stuff, Thanks for posting Redscot :thumbsup:

Love me a rainy morning Sunday and a day full of action!
4/24

Eickhoff CB 31.2%
Brewcrew #6 wCB/C .87 ***3rd straight game against a RH SP that features a CB as secondary pitch***

Peralta SL 30%
Phils wSL/C #23 -1.18


Conley FB 69.9%
Giants #5 wFB/C .91


Liriano SL 30.3%
DBacks Last wSL/C -2.41

Ray FB 72.9%
Pirates #4 wFB/C 1.05


Pineda SL 36.7%
Rays #25 wSL/C -1.5


Greene CT 43.4%
Inidans #22 wCT/C -1.13


Owens (2015) CH 23.7 %
Stros #7 wCH/C 2.49

Feldman CT 40.7%
Redsox #24 wCT/C -1.2

 

[Redscot]

Thanks Blood.:shake:

For fear of sounding like a broken record, #'s especially on secondary pitch's are NOT close to stable at this juncture.

Redsox were wCT/C - 1.8 before facing McHugh and Feldman and after feasting on them are now -.29.....but we will keep tracking and see where this goes.

A lot today: 4/25

Iglesias SL 28.8%
Mets #22 wSL/C -1.14


Locke FB 67.4%
Rockies wFB/C #7 .73


Garcia FB 65.4%
D-backs wFB/C #1 1.48 **FB has highest sample size obviously, don't think Garcia will hit that 65% in this game**


Stripling CB 23%
Marlins wCB/C #3 1.47


Pomeranz CB 42.3%
Giants wCB/C #24 -1.03

Bumgarner SL 31%
Padres wSL/C #18 -.88


Zimmerman SL 33.4%
A's wSL/C #25 -1.51


Archer SL 36.9%
Orioles wSL/C #2 .95


Eovaldi CH 25.6%
Rangers wCH/C last -1.87


Salazar FB 68.2%
CH 23.2%
Twins wFB/C #23 -.31
wCH/C #20 -.54

Milone CH 38.6%
Indians wCH/C #6 1.02


Kennedy FB 67.5%
Angels wFB/C #28 -.87


Walker CH 23.6%
Astros wCH/C #1 2.05


Porcello FB 70.3%
Braves wFB/C #29 -.97

Teheran SL 23.5%
Redsox wSL/C #5 .71

 

[DapperDan]

Just to highlight the ones that correlate with the '14-'16 data:

mets in the bottom five of wSL/c at -.66

marlins around 7th-8th i believe in wCB/c at .52

Giants actually #1 in wCB/C at 1.06 (maybe its time we see a progression for season stats and giants especially against a pomeranz who is essentially a two pitch pitcher) [my money will be on the giants]

a's bottom five against wSL/C as well at -.662

orioles .14 vs wSL/c which is 3rd best

redsox #2 vs wSL/c at .25


best of luck bud

 

[Redscot]

Glad you chimed in Dappy D. I was toying around with taking this a step further but not really sure how to approach it. Essentially looking for a Pitcher's repertoire against a given lineup....obviously an Arrieta CT is not the same as one by say Feldman..the good news is Fangraphs has wCT/C etc. for each individual pitcher as well, so not only the volume of their use of pitch is quantified but also its effectiveness. So it would interest me to somehow weigh it's % of use with its effectiveness before applying it to the corresponding teams success against it. Not a model guy and not a Math guy per se, although can do a few things on excel :rofl:.

Ex:

Let's take Iglesias vs Mets tonight:

FB% 60.5 at wFB/C -.9, SL% 28.6 at wSL/C 1.6, CH 10.9% at wCH/C -1.2

Mets wFB/C .31, wSL/C -1.14, wCH/C 1.06

Would love to quantify his PR (Pitch Repertoire) vs. Mets lineup somehow...Anywho, no obligation to offer solution buddy, this has just piqued my interest so running with it. Anyone else who may have suggestion's feel free to chime in.

Best of luck on your plays tonight :shake:

 

[DapperDan]

Ya I know It was piquing my interest during the offseason, I put some thought into it and came out with same idea as you but the only way to do it (that wouldnt be tremendous hours of work every day) would be through a model that would mine the lineup from a daily lineups posting site and then insert their correlating wFB/c, wCH/c, wSL/c, etc. and compare to the daily pitchers pitch effectivesness and %s. But i am in the same boat as you I just mess around with excel and have no idea on how to go down that path of programming a model of comparing those stats on a daily basis after mining the starting lineups....

if anyone out there knows a program/software that they can point me in the right direction of to get me started, I would appreciate it, I just dont have much time these days but Ill probably start looking into it again in the offseason. I started doing a little research a month before the season and got a data mining software called orange but i didnt get very far with it and need to spend more time on it to even figure out if that software is capable of doing what we are looking for.

 

[Redscot]

Ya I know It was piquing my interest during the offseason, I put some thought into it and came out with same idea as you but the only way to do it (that wouldnt be tremendous hours of work every day) would be through a model that would mine the lineup from a daily lineups posting site and then insert their correlating wFB/c, wCH/c, wSL/c, etc. and compare to the daily pitchers pitch effectivesness and %s. But i am in the same boat as you I just mess around with excel and have no idea on how to go down that path of programming a model of comparing those stats on a daily basis after mining the starting lineups....

if anyone out there knows a program/software that they can point me in the right direction of to get me started, I would appreciate it, I just dont have much time these days but Ill probably start looking into it again in the offseason. I started doing a little research a month before the season and got a data mining software called orange but i didnt get very far with it and need to spend more time on it to even figure out if that software is capable of doing what we are looking for.

Well, we'll keep rowing together for now Dap. Appreciate the response :shake:

 

[EXhoosier10]

Ya I know It was piquing my interest during the offseason, I put some thought into it and came out with same idea as you but the only way to do it (that wouldnt be tremendous hours of work every day) would be through a model that would mine the lineup from a daily lineups posting site and then insert their correlating wFB/c, wCH/c, wSL/c, etc. and compare to the daily pitchers pitch effectivesness and %s. But i am in the same boat as you I just mess around with excel and have no idea on how to go down that path of programming a model of comparing those stats on a daily basis after mining the starting lineups....

if anyone out there knows a program/software that they can point me in the right direction of to get me started, I would appreciate it, I just dont have much time these days but Ill probably start looking into it again in the offseason. I started doing a little research a month before the season and got a data mining software called orange but i didnt get very far with it and need to spend more time on it to even figure out if that software is capable of doing what we are looking for.

to start with, you can probably use excel data import to get lineups.... and then to pull in stats v pitches, you can probably export the mLB leaderboard from FG every few days to get pitcher info (they only pitche 1 in 5 days) and then update hitter info however often you feel you need to.

Otherwise, if you wanted to go down the programming route, you could use python and beautifulsoup to do all of the data grabbing and then manipulations then import a csv to excel with required info

 

[Redscot]

I think this stat can definitely be a usefull tool as the season progresses but at the moment the volatility makes it kind of pointless. Will wait for the sample sizes to grow a bit, and the numbers fall into a more stable range. In the mean time going to reach out to a few guys who may be able to help me with a simple way to quantify the SP repertoire

Let's take Iglesias vs Mets tonight:

FB% 60.5 at wFB/C -.9, SL% 28.6 at wSL/C 1.6, CH 10.9% at wCH/C -1.2

My main dilemna is if he throws FB 60.5 % of the time but at a -.9 effectiveness how can I combine those two bits of info in to 1?


So I can then apply it to the lineups success against different pitches.

 

[DapperDan]

to start with, you can probably use excel data import to get lineups.... and then to pull in stats v pitches, you can probably export the mLB leaderboard from FG every few days to get pitcher info (they only pitche 1 in 5 days) and then update hitter info however often you feel you need to.

Otherwise, if you wanted to go down the programming route, you could use python and beautifulsoup to do all of the data grabbing and then manipulations then import a csv to excel with required info

ya I just feel like it would take too much time with excel by hand, inputting all data from FG....maybe Im just not familar enough with it and the shortcuts to do it effeciently and easily

thanks for the programming tip I was unaware of what programming language would be best for this type of program and where to start but Ill try to look into python in the offseason

 

[Redscot]

Off to NYC for a few days but definitely have some ideas on building a daily PitchRep vs lineup #. As the saying in my other favorite sport says "styles make fights", so may prove to be somewhat useful down the road.

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

:shake: