Total Talk

[Gordon gekko]

One of the areas of need and concern for me, is my totals? I'm still posting some of the B range plays, but they should me more successful as the sides have been: This is what I have so far mapped out and wouldn't mind some analysis, if you have some thoughts?

NCAAF Totals
307-Over N.Ilinois/Kent State 68
310-Under C. Michigan/W. Michigan 66' (Largest Total for C.Michigan on the year, only Kent State's total was higher)
318-Under Stanford/Utah 53
319-Over Army/Air Force 37, being played in Texas and on Artificial Turf at Globe Life Field

• (Army ranks #1 in TOP, Air Force ranks #2)
• (Last time it went over this number was 2013)
• Army's offense ranked 70, while Air Force ranked 79th,
• Air Force Defense vs Rush is ranked 36th in YPP and 15th in YPG
• Highly ranked in FEI statistics vs Rush
• 82nd in Stuff Rate, 69th in Standard Downs, 75th in Avg Line yards

Army Defensively

• 52nd in Stuff Rate, 32nd in Avg Line yards, 50th in Standard yards.

My numbers based upon PPP come out to 53.9 (Ughh)

339-Over Wake Forest/N.Carolina 76

• Both low on TOP, but big play potential is there for both teams.
• Wake Forest is 5th in Yards per play, N.Carolina is 8th
• Wake Forest is 70th in Yards per play Defensively, N.Carolina is 95th

Red Zone Scoring for both teams that result in TD

• Wake Forest is 9th in Nation in scoring TD's in RZ, while N.Carolina is 34th in allowing TD
• N.Carolina is 88th in scoring TD's in RZ, WForest is 82nd
• Schedule for both posted below:
• 

328-Under Wisconsin/Rutgers 38 (7 and 16 Time of possession)
357-Over Baylor/TCU 59'
368-Under N.Texas/S.Miss 47'
373-Over Nebraska/Ohio State 64
382-Under S.Alabama/Troy 48'
394-Under Mich State/Purdue 51

• Polar opposites w TOP, Michigan State ranks 123rd, Purdue ranks 14th
• Michigan State ranks top 5 in big runs/passes in many categories
• Purdue's fundamental defensive stats look solid
• Michigan State coming off huge home win, now in TOP battle? Any websites that rank big play offensive rates or big play defensive rates? I normally stay away, but this game depicts both sides and necessary for capping purposes.

406-Under UTSA/UTEP 53
412-Under UNLV/New Mexico 45'


Just some small information

 

[2daBank]

i have a weird relationship with totals these days,, i seem to do really well weeks i just have a few or play some more throughout the day, but weeks like last week where i was struggling to find a lot of sides i liked in the early games so maybe started forcing totals a bit to have some plays then i really struggle! the few times this year i have had more totals on my card than sides it has not went well!! lol..

ill try to look at some those as i get thru the card the next few days, just off top my head i never ever never play service academy overs! look at their history, 6 of the last 7 have stayed way under this number and most of them were lined way higher!

 

[2daBank]

wake/unc should be a freaking fireworks show but man those numbers in the 70s scare me, dunno why cause seems like they generally fly over!! think the key to that one pretty much comes down to if wake can generate pressure vs a crappy pass blocking unc oline? i dunno if wake has the dudes up front to do so tho?

 

[Rusty Trombone]

Anymore thoughts on the UTSA/UTEP UNDER or the the Baylor/TCU OVER? I lean both....the Texas in state games looks like a battle in game 1 and a shootout in game 2

GL brother

 

[Gordon gekko]

wake/unc should be a freaking fireworks show but man those numbers in the 70s scare me, dunno why cause seems like they generally fly over!! think the key to that one pretty much comes down to if wake can generate pressure vs a crappy pass blocking unc oline? i dunno if wake has the dudes up front to do so tho?

I played it when it opened, was hoping to add more to it, but keeps climbing ‍, I didn’t get enough down. I still like it as ceiling is 100 +

 

[Gordon gekko]

Anymore thoughts on the UTSA/UTEP UNDER or the the Baylor/TCU OVER? I lean both....the Texas in state games looks like a battle in game 1 and a shootout in game 2

GL brother

Had Kent State over as one of my member plays, that one worked out better than expected.

Liking both these totals, Baylor coming off some tough defensive battles or teams that are much better defensively than TCU, averaging over 37 points per game, outliers Ok St and FCS team, TCU can score and feeling a motivational edge here w Patterson done. Like TCU as well, hoping gets to 7, but over has ceiling of 74, basement of 45. I’m more vested in Over TCU than under UTEP but like both still.

 

[Gordon gekko]

Ohio st/Nebraska
Over Ohio state and Nebraska has ceiling of 87, basement of 48. Ohio States offense is top 3 and can’t see Nebraska slowing them down, on opposite spectrum Nebraska’s strength comes with throwing the rock, rank mid 20s in adjusted success rate, OSU weakness is in defensively in 70s in adjusted success rate vs pass. Even if we count a couple turnovers from Martinez, we can expect quick scores from OSU. Both red zone offenses in top 20 scoring TD’s rather than FGs, the old saying, Field goals kill overs. Expect both teams to move the ball pretty easily over the field.
Ohio state is all over FEI on yards per play per drive ranking 1st in all categories while Nebraska is 17th in over 7yds and 10th in over 10 yards. Both getting huge chunks per drive. The key will be Martinez not giving up the ball over 2 times in Red Zone.

 

[Rusty Trombone]

I kinda see Army/AF game being 17-17 or 21-21 in the 4th....so the O37 seems very doable....

Theres a good chance Rutgers doesnt score at all...so U38 seems doable....

Mich St has been tough, but they have shown good d lines can slow them. Purdue is balanced, but they dont have on advantage anywhere really....Seems like a 24-17 type game....

UNLV/NM is weird....Rebels O is improved and D still stinks.....Theyve only had 1 game go under 45 this year....NM has scored 40 total points in its last 6 games ....Yet they are favored?? And the line has went from -1 to -2?? Seems very weird. I think UNLV wins by double digits...

 

[Gordon gekko]

UTSA/UTEP
Both points per drive both teams rank in mid 20s defensively while ranking in 40s offensively. What gets me on this under is UTSA (19th) and UTEP (9) at allowing TDs in red zone defensively, remember FGs are for unders and they do a great job. Another data point is both defensive lines are great, UTSA 14th, UTEP 9th overall.

Both teams rank top 35 in time of possession as well as running the ball, UTEP 29th in nation in rushing percentage and UTSA 31st in rushing percentage but both defensive lines control line of scrimmage and if game script goes as planned, score should be close and no mistakes by Offensive Coordinators especially in 4th quarter. Line suggests a close game 12/52 at openers.

 

[2daBank]

Ohio st/Nebraska
Over Ohio state and Nebraska has ceiling of 87, basement of 48. Ohio States offense is top 3 and can’t see Nebraska slowing them down, on opposite spectrum Nebraska’s strength comes with throwing the rock, rank mid 20s in adjusted success rate, OSU weakness is in defensively in 70s in adjusted success rate vs pass. Even if we count a couple turnovers from Martinez, we can expect quick scores from OSU. Both red zone offenses in top 20 scoring TD’s rather than FGs, the old saying, Field goals kill overs. Expect both teams to move the ball pretty easily over the field.
Ohio state is all over FEI on yards per play per drive ranking 1st in all categories while Nebraska is 17th in over 7yds and 10th in over 10 yards. Both getting huge chunks per drive. The key will be Martinez not giving up the ball over 2 times in Red Zone.

If we could trust him not to be a turnover machine think I would take the points, never freaking know w Martinez tho.

 

[Timh]

Thought long and hard about Navy/ND over. Freeman came in from Cin and employed his 3-4 defense and I think ND has struggled to adjust to it and I'm not sure that it has used their DL talent to best advantage. Navy has improved the last two weeks offensively but this is one of the worst seasons they have had, and they are admittedly not good. I think ND can throw all over them (Navy allowing 8.9 pya) and also do not pressure very well with only 9 sacks on the year. I see ND putting up 38 plus here with relative ease and I figure even with Navy struggles they should be good for at least 14. Hoping for some ND explosive plays and short fields.

 

[2daBank]

sec unders have been a real bitch for me, they often play out kinda as i hope early but then they turn into track meets in the second half. so debating between 1st half or game but i like the messy st/ark under.. i think ark defense is perfect for defending leach offense and messy st d does a good job taking away the 2 things ark offense does best which running the ball and throwing deep.

 

[2daBank]

I kinda see Army/AF game being 17-17 or 21-21 in the 4th....so the O37 seems very doable....

Theres a good chance Rutgers doesnt score at all...so U38 seems doable....

Mich St has been tough, but they have shown good d lines can slow them. Purdue is balanced, but they dont have on advantage anywhere really....Seems like a 24-17 type game....

UNLV/NM is weird....Rebels O is improved and D still stinks.....Theyve only had 1 game go under 45 this year....NM has scored 40 total points in its last 6 games ....Yet they are favored?? And the line has went from -1 to -2?? Seems very weird. I think UNLV wins by double digits...

i been seeing a lot of love for the army/af over and man i just dont understand it, we see it every year when these service academies play, just look at recent history of these 2 and there not many games that surpassed this number. unlike other teams very little changes with these guys year after year and there just no surprises as both teams know the other so well and practice against basically mirror images of each other every day.. maybe it be different this year but i gotta stick with what works and play the under. i can live with losing on a play that been really good to me a lot more than i could playing the over and after 3 drives it halftime and im kicking myself.