Total for Thursday

[Trueblue]

Don't see much tonight other then one total that seems out of line.

As most of you guys have noticed, Denver scores a crapload of points on their home floor. Their road performance is another story. Tomorrow they will be heading to over to Dallas to face the Mavs who lost to Tim Duncanless Spurs team. I know the Mavs bounce back well after losses, but they are honestly not playing the best of ball recently and have to be in a let-down spot after such a shitty display last night. On the other hand, their defense might just be enough to shut-down the porous road performance that Denver exhibits. Look at the past matchups, all of the head to head meetings in Denver sail over the total while the last 4/5 in Dallas have gone under the total. No total in the last 5 games in Denver has gone over 215 points. I think it's also a great setup after the Nugs dueled the lakeshow to a 218 total point output and AI dropping over 50 in Farmar's face. He has great stamina yes, but what goes up must come down. I'd like to hear any additional input on this play, thanks.

Denver/Dallas U215 - Large

 

[Trueblue]

And oh yeah, the consensus is heavily tilted to the over. Currently 61% on Wagerline and 63% on sportsbook.com. Not relying on the public tilt, but just a peace of mind.

 

[redbearde]

I REALLY like this one.

fwiw. I can see something like a 115-90 sort of score at the worst.

 

[Horus]

not if denver wins which they will

 

[The Farm]

Saw this and hammered it as well..

GL

 

[Trueblue]

not if denver wins which they will

With your confidence level, I hope you have a lot on the +300 ML parlayed with the over.


Note: Only game that has gone over 215 (in Denver) in the last 10 games, barring OT, both teams shot over 50%. (55.5% and 51.2%)

 

[Horus]

+310 ml and I didnt play the over yet just think Denver will win

 

[Killa]

I love Horus. Dude just goes from thread to thread making all these confident statements, lol. He also has Amaechiized some threads. A definite candidate to be inducted into Amaechi Nation.

 

[redbearde]

not if denver wins which they will

Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas

Denver's road games this season:
11/02/2007 at Minnesota W 99 - 91
11/06/2007 at New York L 119 - 112
11/07/2007 at Boston L 119 - 93
11/09/2007 at Washington W 118 - 92
11/10/2007 at Indiana W 113 - 106
11/21/2007 at LA Clippers L 101 - 90
11/24/2007 at Houston L 109 - 81
11/29/2007 at LA Lakers L 127 - 99

2 went over 215...the Knicks in their last quality game and the Pacers.

I grabbed Under 215.5 at just shy of -115.

GL tonight, gentlemen.

 

[Horus]

We old friends killa billy tooI think Denver will win because everybody knows they struggle on the road blah blah. They lose a tough game yesterday and Dallas hasnt impressed me even in their wins. I think the Nugs dictate the tempo and since Dallas has no inside game at all they cant hurt Denver

 

[Horus]

Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas

Denver's road games this season:
11/02/2007 at Minnesota W 99 - 91
11/06/2007 at New York L 119 - 112
11/07/2007 at Boston L 119 - 93
11/09/2007 at Washington W 118 - 92
11/10/2007 at Indiana W 113 - 106
11/21/2007 at LA Clippers L 101 - 90
11/24/2007 at Houston L 109 - 81
11/29/2007 at LA Lakers L 127 - 99

2 went over 215...the Knicks in their last quality game and the Pacers.

I grabbed Under 215.5 at just shy of -115.

GL tonight, gentlemen.

I see the trends Red but that can just mean their due for an over kinda like Det was due for an under last night after all them overs the last week

 

[Trueblue]

Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas

Denver's road games this season:
11/02/2007 at Minnesota W 99 - 91
11/06/2007 at New York L 119 - 112
11/07/2007 at Boston L 119 - 93
11/09/2007 at Washington W 118 - 92
11/10/2007 at Indiana W 113 - 106
11/21/2007 at LA Clippers L 101 - 90
11/24/2007 at Houston L 109 - 81
11/29/2007 at LA Lakers L 127 - 99

2 went over 215...the Knicks in their last quality game and the Pacers.

I grabbed Under 215.5 at just shy of -115.

GL tonight, gentlemen.

Thanks for the stats rebearde...I'm waiting for 215.5 The line seems to be moving this direction anyhow. I'll update the final number I get.

 

[redbearde]

I see the trends Red but that can just mean their due for an over kinda like Det was due for an under last night after all them overs the last week

Denver is due for an over?

.......think about that statement for a minute.

 

[Trueblue]

Horus: Gambling 101 Rule #1. I learned from being a newb a few years back.

NEVER bet a team because they are due. Especially when your best player busted his ass scoring 51 the night before. GL whatever you play man.

 

[Horus]

You know what i meant Red I meant that against Dallas on the road they could be due. Game on National TV lil defense will be playedwe'll see good luckIm only on the ML right now

 

[redbearde]

ML I can sympathize with. GL with that.

 

[Horus]

fast pace so far

 

[Horus]

With your confidence level, I hope you have a lot on the +300 ML parlayed with the over.


Note: Only game that has gone over 215 (in Denver) in the last 10 games, barring OT, both teams shot over 50%. (55.5% and 51.2%)

Wish I took your advice and played the over but I didnt. Just the points and ML GL

 

[Marlo]

Only have to average 48 per to get over, pace has to slow down.

Gl

 

[Trueblue]

Thanks for the inspirational smart ass comment.

Anyhow, I'm probably hitting the 2h under as a chase, there have been 24 FTs in the 1st quarter. There is no way that can be kept up.

 

[Horus]

wasnt being smart with ya just saying that trends are bullshit sometime

 

[Trueblue]

wasnt being smart with ya just saying that trends are bullshit sometime

wasn't referring to you buddy, no worries :shake:

 

[redbearde]

halftime.

this pace has been insane. wtf is 71pts in the 1Q...?

the only nugget shooting under 50% is melo.

VERY irritating.

 

[Trueblue]

playing 2h U106.5 as a chase..

 

[redbearde]

GL

 

[Trueblue]

Got owned today, not much more i can say.. eh.

 

[Horus]

dont worry bout it

 

[Mo]

Unders are tough with Denver because they dont play ANY defense. Tommorrow is another day

 

[redbearde]

Denver hasn't been playing offense on the road either. alas.

short of a miraculously pathetic performance in the 4th, we lost this one spectacularly. 71 in the first and 70 in the 3rd? 63 FTs through 3 quarters?

what a joke.

 

[Horus]

We old friends killa billy tooI think Denver will win because everybody knows they struggle on the road blah blah. They lose a tough game yesterday and Dallas hasnt impressed me even in their wins. I think the Nugs dictate the tempo and since Dallas has no inside game at all they cant hurt Denver

im still mad at myslef for not playing the over after I said and knew denver would dictate tempo fool

 

[EHS49]

stick to your gut horus. i too was on the over but got swayed by trueblue. i'm so furious. wish i hadn't seen trueblue's post.

 

[Horus]

Its ok cause I hit the ML and double what i played on the spread cuz i added some after philly's tip