MLB Parlay for Today at (+248) Features Blue Jays and Phillies
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Friday, October 7, 2022 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre in Toronto
Who Starts for Seattle?
Seattle starts Luis Castillo today.
It might be tempting to bet the "under" because of Castillo's low ERA.
However, while Castillo's ERA shows that he is a great pitcher, the fact that he is a great pitcher is already baked into the posted total.
In other words, I don't see any value in the "under."
To begin to explain why, consider this trend: the "over" is 3-1-1 in Castillo's starts this year when the over/under was 7.
Matchup Consideration
For the "under" to hit in this game, both starting pitchers have minimal room for error.
But if they don't match up well with the opposing lineup, then it is likely that they will allow too many runs for the "under" to safely hit.
I like Toronto because this concern applies especially to Castillo -- Blue Jay batters match up excellently against him.
Castillo vs. Blue Jay Batters
Castillo looks unreliable today because Blue Jay batters excel against the types of pitches which he throws.
He throws four different pitches: a fastball, sinker, changeup, and slider.
These pitches make up his entire arsenal.
Toronto merits optimism today for ranking fourth in slugging .430 against Castillo's pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Toronto?
Alek Manoah starts for Toronto today.
One significant advantage that Manoah has over Castillo is form: Manoah couldn't be pitching better right now.
Whereas Castillo allowed four earned runs or more in two of his last three starts, Manoah shut out both of his last opponents.
Manoah hasn't allowed more than two runs in a start in about seven weeks.
Manoah vs. Mariner Batters
Additionally, Manoah has the advantage over Castillo of matching up well against opposing batters.
Manoah throws exclusively a fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup.
Seattle batters, however, rank 13thin slugging against these pitches from righties.
Quality of Recent Competition
The difference between ranking fourth and 13th against the opposing pitcher's pitches might not seem immense.
But what should intensify our perception of this difference is the fact that Toronto has repeatedly been facing stronger pitching in its most recent games.
Seattle has not been playing as well as it should while facing weaker competition.
Uniquely, the Mariners' last five opponents ranked in the bottom 10 in team ERA.
They are therefore less prepared in several senses of the word to handle Toronto and its excellent starting pitcher.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, October 7, 2022 at 2:07 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
The Total Is Too Low
Both starting pitchers -- Zack Wheeler for Philadelphia and Jose Quintana for St. Louis -- have excellent ERAs, and may seem therefore like good options for an "under."
But I find the total too low to justify an "under."
Left-Handed Quintana
My strongest concern with the total comes from the fact that Quintana is left-handed.
His worst games -- against Atlanta, for example -- came against the best lefty-hitting teams.
Philadelphia merits optimism for being such a team -- the Phillies rank sixth in slugging against left-handed pitching.
Quintana vs. Philly Batters
Quintana's negative track record against several Philly batters underscores my point.
Rhys Hoskins, Yairo Munoz, JT Realmuto, and Jean Segura slug .571 or better in at least seven at-bats against the Cardinal lefty.
Wheeler vs. Cardinal Batters
Conversely, Wheeler tends to excel against St. Louis.
His 2.65 career ERA against the Cardinals is reflected in the fact that Cardinal batters have poor track records against him.
Only one batter, Paul DeJong, slugs over .364 in at least three at-bats against Wheeler.
But DeJong is totally unreliable because of the uniquely long and atrocious slump he's been mired in.
Batting under .200 for a second straight year -- his BA is .157 this season -- DeJong is not a source of hope for Cardinal bats.
Parlay Verdict
Forget the low totals and play the side for both games.
For the above reasons, expect strong wins from Toronto and Philadelphia.
Each team's starting pitcher will go deep, which justifies full-game investments in each team, although I am totally fine with parlaying both teams on the first-half money-line, as well.
Best Bet: Parlay Blue Jays ML at -131 & Phillies ML at -103 at +248 odds with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Friday, October 7, 2022 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre in Toronto
Who Starts for Seattle?
Seattle starts Luis Castillo today.
It might be tempting to bet the "under" because of Castillo's low ERA.
However, while Castillo's ERA shows that he is a great pitcher, the fact that he is a great pitcher is already baked into the posted total.
In other words, I don't see any value in the "under."
To begin to explain why, consider this trend: the "over" is 3-1-1 in Castillo's starts this year when the over/under was 7.
Matchup Consideration
For the "under" to hit in this game, both starting pitchers have minimal room for error.
But if they don't match up well with the opposing lineup, then it is likely that they will allow too many runs for the "under" to safely hit.
I like Toronto because this concern applies especially to Castillo -- Blue Jay batters match up excellently against him.
Castillo vs. Blue Jay Batters
Castillo looks unreliable today because Blue Jay batters excel against the types of pitches which he throws.
He throws four different pitches: a fastball, sinker, changeup, and slider.
These pitches make up his entire arsenal.
Toronto merits optimism today for ranking fourth in slugging .430 against Castillo's pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Toronto?
Alek Manoah starts for Toronto today.
One significant advantage that Manoah has over Castillo is form: Manoah couldn't be pitching better right now.
Whereas Castillo allowed four earned runs or more in two of his last three starts, Manoah shut out both of his last opponents.
Manoah hasn't allowed more than two runs in a start in about seven weeks.
Manoah vs. Mariner Batters
Additionally, Manoah has the advantage over Castillo of matching up well against opposing batters.
Manoah throws exclusively a fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup.
Seattle batters, however, rank 13thin slugging against these pitches from righties.
Quality of Recent Competition
The difference between ranking fourth and 13th against the opposing pitcher's pitches might not seem immense.
But what should intensify our perception of this difference is the fact that Toronto has repeatedly been facing stronger pitching in its most recent games.
Seattle has not been playing as well as it should while facing weaker competition.
Uniquely, the Mariners' last five opponents ranked in the bottom 10 in team ERA.
They are therefore less prepared in several senses of the word to handle Toronto and its excellent starting pitcher.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, October 7, 2022 at 2:07 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
The Total Is Too Low
Both starting pitchers -- Zack Wheeler for Philadelphia and Jose Quintana for St. Louis -- have excellent ERAs, and may seem therefore like good options for an "under."
But I find the total too low to justify an "under."
Left-Handed Quintana
My strongest concern with the total comes from the fact that Quintana is left-handed.
His worst games -- against Atlanta, for example -- came against the best lefty-hitting teams.
Philadelphia merits optimism for being such a team -- the Phillies rank sixth in slugging against left-handed pitching.
Quintana vs. Philly Batters
Quintana's negative track record against several Philly batters underscores my point.
Rhys Hoskins, Yairo Munoz, JT Realmuto, and Jean Segura slug .571 or better in at least seven at-bats against the Cardinal lefty.
Wheeler vs. Cardinal Batters
Conversely, Wheeler tends to excel against St. Louis.
His 2.65 career ERA against the Cardinals is reflected in the fact that Cardinal batters have poor track records against him.
Only one batter, Paul DeJong, slugs over .364 in at least three at-bats against Wheeler.
But DeJong is totally unreliable because of the uniquely long and atrocious slump he's been mired in.
Batting under .200 for a second straight year -- his BA is .157 this season -- DeJong is not a source of hope for Cardinal bats.
Parlay Verdict
Forget the low totals and play the side for both games.
For the above reasons, expect strong wins from Toronto and Philadelphia.
Each team's starting pitcher will go deep, which justifies full-game investments in each team, although I am totally fine with parlaying both teams on the first-half money-line, as well.
Best Bet: Parlay Blue Jays ML at -131 & Phillies ML at -103 at +248 odds with BetOnline
