Raptors vs Bulls: NBA Picks and Predictions
Toronto vs Chicago
Monday, December 9, 2019 at 8 p.m. ET in United Center, Chicago
Raptors Are Struggling
In viewing the Raptors’ current 0-3 ATS run, we need to ask: is something wrong with the Raptors or are they just happening to play teams that match up well with him?
I find that the latter option is accurate.
To explain, Toronto really struggles on the glass. It ranks 24th in total rebounding rate.
Opposing offenses are able to create additional opportunities for themselves by accruing offensive rebounds.
Its last two opponents, Philadelphia and Houston, rank top-10 in offensive rebounding percentage and both teams covered against Toronto.
Extending our perspective, the Raptors have failed to cover against nine different opponents. The majority of them rank top-10 in offensive rebounding percentage and dominated Toronto on the offensive glass.
Besides rebounding, the Raptors have dipped in three-point efficiency.
In their last three games, they’re converting threes at a 3.3 percent lower rate than their season average.
This dip in efficiency, albeit modest, is important because only six teams attempt more threes per game than the Raptors.
So to figure out whether Toronto will struggle again tonight, we have to inquire into Chicago’s rebounding ability and three-point defense.
Can Chicago Prolong Toronto’s Struggles?
It turns out that Chicago is one of the NBA’s worst rebounding teams. In this respect, the Bulls present a stark contrast to the teams that recently covered against the Raptors.
The Bulls are not build, personnel-wise, to be a good rebounding team. Their starting center, Wendell Carter, is undersized for his position.
Moreover, starting power forward Lauri Markkanen has a slender frame and prefers to hang behind the perimeter.
Given these deficiencies, Chicago ranks 28th in total rebounding rate. I don’t foresee it really hurting the Raptors on the offensive glass because it ranks 20th in offensive rebounding rate.
Regarding the perimeter, it may seem like the Bulls contest the three-point shot well.
But they’ve mostly been lucky. The Bulls allow the fourth-highest percentage of open threes (where the nearest defender is 4-6 feet away from the shooter).
Their opponents have done the fourth-best job of bailing them out by converting the fourth-lowest percentage of open threes against them.
Toronto’s Offensive Style
One way in which Toronto loves to work open threes is in transition.
Crucial to Toronto’s transition game is its defense. The Raptors own the best two-point defense by percentage.
So they force a miss maybe by blocking a shot or they get a defensive rebound, or a steal, then they’re off to the races.
There are multiple ones, but Kyle Lowry is probably Toronto’s key player in transition. He’s great at accruing steals and then he’s aggressive heading to the basket.
Norman Powell, who will likely start if Fred VanVleet can’t play, and Lowry are easily one of the better NBA players in PPP (points per possession) in transition.
One beneficiary of Toronto’s transition game is Pascal Siakam. This year, he’s attempting more threes and converting them more efficiently than he ever had in his career.
They should thrive against a Bulls team that ranks in the bottom half in opposing PPP against transition offense.
Besides not doing a good job of getting back on defense, Chicago is a prime victim for Toronto’s transition game because of its carelessness with the ball.
The Bulls’ offense ranks 24th in avoiding steals largely because Zach LaVine is so error-prone passing the ball or otherwise.
Toronto’s Stellar Defense vs Chicago’s Offense
In the interior, Toronto is so strong that teams rarely even try to post up against it.
Instead, teams try to find an open shooter. The Raptors allow the most spot-up opportunities.
Fittingly, Chicago’s offense owns the fifth-highest spot-up frequency. Markkanen is a big reason why as are several other Bull players like Kris Dunn.
Bull players are generally not like LaVine. They don’t create off the dribble, but they rely on teammates to create opportunities for them and to find them behind the arc.
Problematically, Chicago is not a good shooting team. The Bulls rank 20th in three-point percentage.
Toronto guards the perimeter closely, rarely allowing open looks.
Even when it seems like an opponent is ready to spot-up and knock down a three, Raptor defenders arrive quickly to the ball.
The Verdict
Chicago lacks the tools in perimeter defense and offensive rebounding to prolong Toronto’s woes. The Raptors will thrive in transition and cause Chicago to struggle from deep.
Best Bet: Raptors - 4.5 at -105 odds with Heritage
Toronto vs Chicago
Monday, December 9, 2019 at 8 p.m. ET in United Center, Chicago
Raptors Are Struggling
In viewing the Raptors’ current 0-3 ATS run, we need to ask: is something wrong with the Raptors or are they just happening to play teams that match up well with him?
I find that the latter option is accurate.
To explain, Toronto really struggles on the glass. It ranks 24th in total rebounding rate.
Opposing offenses are able to create additional opportunities for themselves by accruing offensive rebounds.
Its last two opponents, Philadelphia and Houston, rank top-10 in offensive rebounding percentage and both teams covered against Toronto.
Extending our perspective, the Raptors have failed to cover against nine different opponents. The majority of them rank top-10 in offensive rebounding percentage and dominated Toronto on the offensive glass.
Besides rebounding, the Raptors have dipped in three-point efficiency.
In their last three games, they’re converting threes at a 3.3 percent lower rate than their season average.
This dip in efficiency, albeit modest, is important because only six teams attempt more threes per game than the Raptors.
So to figure out whether Toronto will struggle again tonight, we have to inquire into Chicago’s rebounding ability and three-point defense.
Can Chicago Prolong Toronto’s Struggles?
It turns out that Chicago is one of the NBA’s worst rebounding teams. In this respect, the Bulls present a stark contrast to the teams that recently covered against the Raptors.
The Bulls are not build, personnel-wise, to be a good rebounding team. Their starting center, Wendell Carter, is undersized for his position.
Moreover, starting power forward Lauri Markkanen has a slender frame and prefers to hang behind the perimeter.
Given these deficiencies, Chicago ranks 28th in total rebounding rate. I don’t foresee it really hurting the Raptors on the offensive glass because it ranks 20th in offensive rebounding rate.
Regarding the perimeter, it may seem like the Bulls contest the three-point shot well.
But they’ve mostly been lucky. The Bulls allow the fourth-highest percentage of open threes (where the nearest defender is 4-6 feet away from the shooter).
Their opponents have done the fourth-best job of bailing them out by converting the fourth-lowest percentage of open threes against them.
Toronto’s Offensive Style
One way in which Toronto loves to work open threes is in transition.
Crucial to Toronto’s transition game is its defense. The Raptors own the best two-point defense by percentage.
So they force a miss maybe by blocking a shot or they get a defensive rebound, or a steal, then they’re off to the races.
There are multiple ones, but Kyle Lowry is probably Toronto’s key player in transition. He’s great at accruing steals and then he’s aggressive heading to the basket.
Norman Powell, who will likely start if Fred VanVleet can’t play, and Lowry are easily one of the better NBA players in PPP (points per possession) in transition.
One beneficiary of Toronto’s transition game is Pascal Siakam. This year, he’s attempting more threes and converting them more efficiently than he ever had in his career.
They should thrive against a Bulls team that ranks in the bottom half in opposing PPP against transition offense.
Besides not doing a good job of getting back on defense, Chicago is a prime victim for Toronto’s transition game because of its carelessness with the ball.
The Bulls’ offense ranks 24th in avoiding steals largely because Zach LaVine is so error-prone passing the ball or otherwise.
Toronto’s Stellar Defense vs Chicago’s Offense
In the interior, Toronto is so strong that teams rarely even try to post up against it.
Instead, teams try to find an open shooter. The Raptors allow the most spot-up opportunities.
Fittingly, Chicago’s offense owns the fifth-highest spot-up frequency. Markkanen is a big reason why as are several other Bull players like Kris Dunn.
Bull players are generally not like LaVine. They don’t create off the dribble, but they rely on teammates to create opportunities for them and to find them behind the arc.
Problematically, Chicago is not a good shooting team. The Bulls rank 20th in three-point percentage.
Toronto guards the perimeter closely, rarely allowing open looks.
Even when it seems like an opponent is ready to spot-up and knock down a three, Raptor defenders arrive quickly to the ball.
The Verdict
Chicago lacks the tools in perimeter defense and offensive rebounding to prolong Toronto’s woes. The Raptors will thrive in transition and cause Chicago to struggle from deep.
Best Bet: Raptors - 4.5 at -105 odds with Heritage
