Top Prop Bets For Upcoming NFL Draft
Which Pick Will Jeff Okudah Be Drafted
It would make very little sense for former Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah to be taken with one of the first four picks.
He won’t be number one because the Bengals will take their next franchise quarterback, certainly Joe Burrow.
At number two, Chase Young remains the best player available given his body of film.
Young dominated the college football landscape, producing 16.5 sacks, despite missing two games, and earning the award for top defensive player.
He would make an instant impact at Washington, making an instant upgrade at defensive end, and he would fit Washington’s 4-3 scheme.
If the „Under“ is going to hit, the Lions would have to be the team to draft Okudah.
To be fair, one could make an argument that the Lions will take Okudah and here it is:
They will not draft Tua (or any other quarterback) because ownership has mandated Detroit to win now.
Head coach Matt Patricia’s seat is hot. Because the urgency is there to win now, there’s no way that the Lions would waste their first pick on a future-oriented option.
Plus, Matt Stafford is still more than capable of thriving. He had thrown 19 touchdowns to five interceptions before being injured.
It’s true that he’s had some injury-related issues. But it would be illogical for the Lions to draft an injury-prone quarterback in Tua to replace Stafford.
The Lions traded away their top cornerback in Darius Slay and the position still requires upgrade with an injury-prone corner in Desmond Trufant and former fifth-rounder, second-year Amani Oruwariye, shaping up to be the starters.
But the main problem is that taking Okudah would constitute a gross misuse of a perfect opportunity to trade down.
Let’s assume that Okudah is the Lions' top choice (with Chase Young having been selected by the Redskins).
.
They are not even close to needing to take him with the third pick and here’s why:
After the Lions, the Giants have the fourth pick. They recently signed James Bradberry to a three-year deal and they drafted Deandre Baker last year in the first round.
Next up is Miami. The Dolphins signed Byron Jones to a huge five-year deal. Plus they’re committed to Xavien Howard as their second starter at the position.
The Chargers are due to pick at number six. They just signed proven veteran Chris Harris, thereby removing any possibility that they take a cornerback with their first pick.
Both the Chargers and Dolphins are in a race with each other to pick Tua, the clear-cut second-best quarterback in the draft.
While Justin Herbert has received some buzz, that buzz mostly derives from questions surrounding Tua’s health.
But with veteran quarterbacks in place — Ryan Fitzpatrick in Miami and Tyrod Taylor in Los Angeles — neither team needs Tua to be healthy and ready to play this season.
With L.A., Miami, (and other teams) wanting and needing Tua, one of those teams is going to trade spots with Detroit and neither team will take Okudah.
Detroit is a perfect candidate to move down because it needs more instant impact players.
So this is another big reason why Okudah won’t land at number three: the Lions need more than just a cornerback.
If the Lions trade down, they’ll get more picks with which to satisfy more immediate needs.
To give an example, one of those needs is the defensive line.
They were particularly weak in the interior where they’ve also lost three of their top four defensive tackles.
While the Lions signed a couple of players to occupy the position, they still badly need more depth and quality at the position.
With Derrick Brown rather a reach at number three and the Giants, Dolphins, and Chargers bringing zero chance of taking Okudah, the Lions are in a perfect spot to move down.
So even if the Lions are determined to take Okudah first — and this is by no means set in stone with Brown among others available to satisfy desperate needs — they won’t take him at number three.
Best Bet: Over 4.5 Pick (-125) with BetOnline
Third Overall Pick
With a bevy of teams needing Tua — I mentioned Miami and the Chargers, but there are more — it seems clear that Tua will be drafted very early.
The Bengals are set on Burrow. The Redskins are committed to Haskins. So teams needing a quarterback would be wasting resources to trade up to the first or second spot.
While I explained why a team would trade up to take Tua, here’s why I don’t think they’ll trade places with the Giants at number four.
Giants GM Dave Gettleman has, in seven years of overseeing NFL Draft selections, never traded down.
After taking quarterback Daniel Jones with the sixth pick last year, he’s also acquired a reputation for reaching.
Plus, the Giants are committed to Jones.
Hence, with the Lions able to begin satisfying their needs at least a couple picks later, some team will take Tua at number three.
Potential candidates to take Tua include Carolina, which is scheduled to pick right after the Charger and Dolphins.
Currently, Teddy Bridgewater tops Carolina’s depth chart.
Bridgewater has already proven that he is not a franchise quarterback and his statistics show that he’s never been one to put up big passing numbers.
Another candidate is Jacksonville, which also picks early. The Jaguars dealt away Nick Foles.
With ‚Minshew Mania‘ having died down after teams saw him — Gardner Minshew — play enough, the Jags could very well spend their first pick on a quarterback who’s expected to be the face of a franchise.
Best Bet: Tua Tagovailoa (+160) with BetOnline
Which Pick Will Henry Ruggs III Be Drafted
Given his performance at the NFL Combine, Henry Ruggs’ draft stock is on the rise.
The former Alabama product made a strong impression with his physical toolset.
He ran the 40 in 4.27 seconds and ranked second overall in the vertical jump.
Speculation is wide that he could even be the first wide receiver picked.
While taking him to be that at +350 is tempting and far from unreasonable, competition remains thick with CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy, who are the more favored options.
So I think that this prop — to bet on Ruggs being taken with one of the first 14 picks -- offers a much better opportunity to capitalize on Ruggs’ rising draft stock.
Many of the teams occupying one of the first 14 picks could take a receiver.
Carolina, for example, ranked second-to-last in yards per route run when a wide receiver was targeted. Plus, Carolina’s offense promises to be pass-heavy with Matt Rhule now at the helm.
Based on, for example, touchdown rate at the position, the Jets and Raiders could really use a wide receiver.
In looking at metrics like 40-yard dash and speed rate, it’s evident that Ruggs would have a transformative effect especially on either team’s pass-catching crew.
Thus, those two teams are my favorite candidates to take Ruggs. So even if both Lamb and Jeudy are taken before Ruggs, Ruggs will still land in the top 14.
Best Bet: Under 14.5 Pick (+100) with BetOnline
Which Pick Will Jeff Okudah Be Drafted
It would make very little sense for former Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah to be taken with one of the first four picks.
He won’t be number one because the Bengals will take their next franchise quarterback, certainly Joe Burrow.
At number two, Chase Young remains the best player available given his body of film.
Young dominated the college football landscape, producing 16.5 sacks, despite missing two games, and earning the award for top defensive player.
He would make an instant impact at Washington, making an instant upgrade at defensive end, and he would fit Washington’s 4-3 scheme.
If the „Under“ is going to hit, the Lions would have to be the team to draft Okudah.
To be fair, one could make an argument that the Lions will take Okudah and here it is:
They will not draft Tua (or any other quarterback) because ownership has mandated Detroit to win now.
Head coach Matt Patricia’s seat is hot. Because the urgency is there to win now, there’s no way that the Lions would waste their first pick on a future-oriented option.
Plus, Matt Stafford is still more than capable of thriving. He had thrown 19 touchdowns to five interceptions before being injured.
It’s true that he’s had some injury-related issues. But it would be illogical for the Lions to draft an injury-prone quarterback in Tua to replace Stafford.
The Lions traded away their top cornerback in Darius Slay and the position still requires upgrade with an injury-prone corner in Desmond Trufant and former fifth-rounder, second-year Amani Oruwariye, shaping up to be the starters.
But the main problem is that taking Okudah would constitute a gross misuse of a perfect opportunity to trade down.
Let’s assume that Okudah is the Lions' top choice (with Chase Young having been selected by the Redskins).
.
They are not even close to needing to take him with the third pick and here’s why:
After the Lions, the Giants have the fourth pick. They recently signed James Bradberry to a three-year deal and they drafted Deandre Baker last year in the first round.
Next up is Miami. The Dolphins signed Byron Jones to a huge five-year deal. Plus they’re committed to Xavien Howard as their second starter at the position.
The Chargers are due to pick at number six. They just signed proven veteran Chris Harris, thereby removing any possibility that they take a cornerback with their first pick.
Both the Chargers and Dolphins are in a race with each other to pick Tua, the clear-cut second-best quarterback in the draft.
While Justin Herbert has received some buzz, that buzz mostly derives from questions surrounding Tua’s health.
But with veteran quarterbacks in place — Ryan Fitzpatrick in Miami and Tyrod Taylor in Los Angeles — neither team needs Tua to be healthy and ready to play this season.
With L.A., Miami, (and other teams) wanting and needing Tua, one of those teams is going to trade spots with Detroit and neither team will take Okudah.
Detroit is a perfect candidate to move down because it needs more instant impact players.
So this is another big reason why Okudah won’t land at number three: the Lions need more than just a cornerback.
If the Lions trade down, they’ll get more picks with which to satisfy more immediate needs.
To give an example, one of those needs is the defensive line.
They were particularly weak in the interior where they’ve also lost three of their top four defensive tackles.
While the Lions signed a couple of players to occupy the position, they still badly need more depth and quality at the position.
With Derrick Brown rather a reach at number three and the Giants, Dolphins, and Chargers bringing zero chance of taking Okudah, the Lions are in a perfect spot to move down.
So even if the Lions are determined to take Okudah first — and this is by no means set in stone with Brown among others available to satisfy desperate needs — they won’t take him at number three.
Best Bet: Over 4.5 Pick (-125) with BetOnline
Third Overall Pick
With a bevy of teams needing Tua — I mentioned Miami and the Chargers, but there are more — it seems clear that Tua will be drafted very early.
The Bengals are set on Burrow. The Redskins are committed to Haskins. So teams needing a quarterback would be wasting resources to trade up to the first or second spot.
While I explained why a team would trade up to take Tua, here’s why I don’t think they’ll trade places with the Giants at number four.
Giants GM Dave Gettleman has, in seven years of overseeing NFL Draft selections, never traded down.
After taking quarterback Daniel Jones with the sixth pick last year, he’s also acquired a reputation for reaching.
Plus, the Giants are committed to Jones.
Hence, with the Lions able to begin satisfying their needs at least a couple picks later, some team will take Tua at number three.
Potential candidates to take Tua include Carolina, which is scheduled to pick right after the Charger and Dolphins.
Currently, Teddy Bridgewater tops Carolina’s depth chart.
Bridgewater has already proven that he is not a franchise quarterback and his statistics show that he’s never been one to put up big passing numbers.
Another candidate is Jacksonville, which also picks early. The Jaguars dealt away Nick Foles.
With ‚Minshew Mania‘ having died down after teams saw him — Gardner Minshew — play enough, the Jags could very well spend their first pick on a quarterback who’s expected to be the face of a franchise.
Best Bet: Tua Tagovailoa (+160) with BetOnline
Which Pick Will Henry Ruggs III Be Drafted
Given his performance at the NFL Combine, Henry Ruggs’ draft stock is on the rise.
The former Alabama product made a strong impression with his physical toolset.
He ran the 40 in 4.27 seconds and ranked second overall in the vertical jump.
Speculation is wide that he could even be the first wide receiver picked.
While taking him to be that at +350 is tempting and far from unreasonable, competition remains thick with CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy, who are the more favored options.
So I think that this prop — to bet on Ruggs being taken with one of the first 14 picks -- offers a much better opportunity to capitalize on Ruggs’ rising draft stock.
Many of the teams occupying one of the first 14 picks could take a receiver.
Carolina, for example, ranked second-to-last in yards per route run when a wide receiver was targeted. Plus, Carolina’s offense promises to be pass-heavy with Matt Rhule now at the helm.
Based on, for example, touchdown rate at the position, the Jets and Raiders could really use a wide receiver.
In looking at metrics like 40-yard dash and speed rate, it’s evident that Ruggs would have a transformative effect especially on either team’s pass-catching crew.
Thus, those two teams are my favorite candidates to take Ruggs. So even if both Lamb and Jeudy are taken before Ruggs, Ruggs will still land in the top 14.
Best Bet: Under 14.5 Pick (+100) with BetOnline
