Tom Coughlin

[wizardofodd]

Can someone here please explain this to me.

You are at home, you are up 10 points. You have held the opponent to 10 points for the first 51 minutes. Its 4th at 2 at the opponent 4. Why do you not kick the FG here, go up 13, with 9 minutes to play?? You kicked one earlier from when you were at the opponent 2.

why did you not kick the fg!!!??

Nothing wrong with the kicker as he tried one from about 50 in OT which missed...


Should have been fired after the game!

 

[cubsker]

he's trying to end the game with a TD. I'm not sure he isn't correct to do what he did. Would be some interesting math to find out.

 

[Gandolf]

he's trying to end the game with a TD. I'm not sure he isn't correct to do what he did. Would be some interesting math to find out.

http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/winprobcalc1.php

The win probability calculator lets us review the different possibilities and their value.

At 4th & 2 from the 4, with 8:50 left, up by 10, the Giants had a win probability of 0.95.

The actual play resulted in a turnover, slight field position change and took 8 seconds off the clock. The calculator says the Giants had a win probability of 0.93, a drop of 0.02.

If the FG was kicked, assuming 5 seconds to complete, and assuming a kickoff touchback with the Jets starting their next drive at the 20, the win probability would have been 0.95. Unchanged.

If the TD had been scored (assuming a 6 second play), the extra point converted and the ensuing kickoff was a touchback, the win probability goes up to 0.98, a gain of 0.03.

If the 4th down attempt had merely fallen incomplete, the win probability would have dropped 0.01 to 0.94.

The bottom line, a field goal in that situation really does little to improve the Giants chances of winning. And the scenario that unfolded caused only a minor hiccup in their chances of winning.

I can't fault Coughlin for being aggressive in this case.

 

[nbafan88]

It was stupid. I was furious. I don't care about the math. It doesn't take into account momentum and all the shit the Giants have gone through this season. That isn't incorporated into math.


I know you can't assume everything would go the same way.... But If the Giants kicked the field goal and it was a 13 point game, the jets wouldn't have have played for a field goal on the next drive. 4th down in the redzone they would've gone for the TD and if they failed that could've ended the game just as well.

The gamble wasn't worth taking and this is one of many mistakes this year. Coughlin is gone at the end of the season. That was basically an elimination game. A new voice is needed for the team which is way too comfortable IMO. He should've been replaced 2 years ago.... They just kept him for prior years successes.


No one play call is the reason you win or lose the game but that play everyone I was watching with said something to the effect of .... "There it is, that's gonna give the jets the opening they need to come back" and everyone was going nuts when they were going for it on 4th down.

 

[dudleysdad]

Yeah fuck the math.
U kick the fg. Go up 13 with what 8 min to play?

My common sense fb math says go up 13, need ur opponent to score two tds in 8 min when they were only able to score one td the first 50 plus minutes
Coughlin also lost the season opening with his dumb decisions.

 

[kdog]

I don't care WHAT ^^^^ that thing says, that late in the game you force the other team to play for nothing but touchdowns. Take their FG kicker out of the game, force them to either use more clock or lower % plays trying to score. Additionally it allows you to use a FG to either make it a two score game again if they score a touchdown or win the if they score two.

 

[nbafan88]

Yeah looking at probability is just naive. Math takes into account every single situation in the NFL in history. These guys aren't computers. Every team is different. The giants are awful in close games. One of the worst in recent times. Every single point matters.

 

[wizardofodd]

It was stupid. I was furious. I don't care about the math. It doesn't take into account momentum and all the shit the Giants have gone through this season. That isn't incorporated into math.


I know you can't assume everything would go the same way.... But If the Giants kicked the field goal and it was a 13 point game, the jets wouldn't have have played for a field goal on the next drive. 4th down in the redzone they would've gone for the TD and if they failed that could've ended the game just as well.

The gamble wasn't worth taking and this is one of many mistakes this year. Coughlin is gone at the end of the season. That was basically an elimination game. A new voice is needed for the team which is way too comfortable IMO. He should've been replaced 2 years ago.... They just kept him for prior years successes.


No one play call is the reason you win or lose the game but that play everyone I was watching with said something to the effect of .... "There it is, that's gonna give the jets the opening they need to come back" and everyone was going nuts when they were going for it on 4th down.

exactly!

Maybe the computer also needs to run the probability of a team scoring 1 TD and 1 FG or 2 TDs

 

[nbafan88]

What made it even worse was that the books needed the jets to win by FG+....

 

[B.A.R.]

Math is wrong on this one.

That makes the Jets need two touchdowns.

They would have had to go for it on 4th down instead of kicking that FG on next drive. It was 4th and goal at the 6.

Also, that was an 11+ min NYG drive there over like 17 plays. a 13 point lead may have ended it in reality, but the pick breathed new life. That was just the Jets 3rd possession in the 2nd half.



----------------------------


All for being aggressive but that play call was awful in every way. Drop back from the 2...nice Tom...

Yeah, he like Caldwell the other night should have been fired before they left the building.

 

[YoungGun11]

I was holding a Jets -2.5 a ticket so I am biased, but you guys don't say anything if they still win. If it is 4th and 1 do you still find it crazy? If it was Belicheck do you find it crazy?

With this teams recent history of meltdowns he wanted to end the game right there, and likely had a play he thought he could get it with 85% of the time. Worst case scenario you give them the ball on their own 5 yard line and have march the length of the field. Up by 2 possessions and 8 minutes to go with the ball on the opposing teams 5 yard line I would take that any day. You say let's not forget the history of this team, but that is exactly my point. Coughlin knew the history of the previous 4th quarter meltdowns and wanted to avoid it. If they score you wouldn't say anything.

Also it should be mentioned that the Jets basically marched right down to scoring position on the drive they kicked their FG it wasn't like it was a 40-50 yarder, they were right there and could have easily scored 2 tds.

ALL THIS IS SAID WITH THE UNDERSTANDING I AM A BIT BIASED.

 

[B.A.R.]

4th and 2 bud...in a compact area

 

[nbafan88]

I was holding a Jets -2.5 a ticket so I am biased, but you guys don't say anything if they still win. If it is 4th and 1 do you still find it crazy? If it was Belicheck do you find it crazy?

With this teams recent history of meltdowns he wanted to end the game right there, and likely had a play he thought he could get it with 85% of the time. Worst case scenario you give them the ball on their own 5 yard line and have march the length of the field. Up by 2 possessions and 8 minutes to go with the ball on the opposing teams 5 yard line I would take that any day. You say let's not forget the history of this team, but that is exactly my point. Coughlin knew the history of the previous 4th quarter meltdowns and wanted to avoid it. If they score you wouldn't say anything.

Also it should be mentioned that the Jets basically marched right down to scoring position on the drive they kicked their FG it wasn't like it was a 40-50 yarder, they were right there and could have easily scored 2 tds.

ALL THIS IS SAID WITH THE UNDERSTANDING I AM A BIT BIASED.

No. It was a stupid decision win or lose. Especially with a team is shitty in the redzone and one has these issues all year round. I feel like they're trying to prove something by capitalizing on a big risk situation, which they have failed time and time again this year.

Personally i think its more difficult to score two TDs than a TD and a field goal... and im sure the giants know how shitty they are in close games.... PLUS.... how many extra points have been missed so far this year? That XP is no longer an automatic score... THIS has to be taken into account too imo

 

[B.A.R.]

No. It was a stupid decision win or lose. Especially with a team is shitty in the redzone and has these issues all year round. I feel like they're trying to prove something by capitalizing on a big risk situation, which they have failed time and time again this year.

Personally i think its more difficult to score two TDs than a TD and a field goal..... and im sure the giants know how shitty they are in close games.... PLUS.... how many extra points have been missed so far this year? That XP is no longer an automatic score... THIS has to be taken into account too imo

Yup

 

[nbafan88]

Such a disgrace.





The Herd just said if the giants kicked the FG they had a 99.4% of winning the game, according to ProFootball....

 

[nbafan88]

"Well, obviously, I have made a decision to be very aggressive at the end of the games," Coughlin said. "I've done it all year long. I don't have a lot to show for it."



If you're playing Brady, Rodgers, Luck, Cam, Wilson, etc yes. I MIGHT agree with the decision... youre giving the jets way too much respect by going for it imo. Every situation is not the same

 

[Gandolf]

The Herd just said if the giants kicked the FG they had a 99.4% of winning the game, according to ProFootball....

And after the 4th down play failed PFR still had them at a 97.2%.

You guys are focused on a minor point here. The fact is regardless of the outcome of Coughlin's decision on 4th and 2 (minus a pick 6, kick 6 or some other catastrophic result), the Giants were still sitting on a 97%+ chance of winning the game.

Based on the way their defense had played, a TD and FG (to tie) should have been just as unlikely as 2 TDs (which BTW likely would have resulted in an outright loss. Even with their collapse the 10 point lead still allowed them a better out - a chance to win the game in OT.)

 

[nbafan88]

And after the 4th down play failed PFR still had them at a 97.2%.

You guys are focused on a minor point here. The fact is regardless of the outcome of Coughlin's decision on 4th and 2 (minus a pick 6, kick 6 or some other catastrophic result), the Giants were still sitting on a 97%+ chance of winning the game.

Based on the way their defense had played, a TD and FG (to tie) should have been just as unlikely as 2 TDs (which BTW likely would have resulted in an outright loss. Even with their collapse the 10 point lead still allowed them a better out - a chance to win the game in OT.)

Are those %s for the entire NFL or specific to each team?


Giving general %s of the likelihood of a scenario with the entire NFL included is ridiculous on so many levels. The coach is responsible for knowing his team's strengths and weaknesses. What Coughlin has tried to do over and over again this season is the definition of insanity.

- The Giants suck at scoring TDs in the redzone.
- The Giants suck in close games

NFL Team Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only)




[TABLE="class: tr-table datatable scrollable dataTable no-footer"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: text-center sort-asc-first sort-first sorting"]Rank[/TH]
[TH="class: text-left sort-asc-first sorting"]Team[/TH]
[TH="class: text-right sorting_asc"]2015[/TH]
[TH="class: text-right nowrap sorting"]Last 3[/TH]
[TH="class: text-right nowrap sorting"]Last 1[/TH]
[TH="class: text-right sorting"]Home[/TH]
[TH="class: text-right sorting"]Away[/TH]
[TH="class: text-right sorting"]2014[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]32[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Cleveland[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]39.39%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]28.57%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]--[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]57.14%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]26.32%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]48.98%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]31[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]NY Giants[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]40.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]11.11%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]29.17%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]56.25%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]59.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]30[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]San Francisco[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]41.38%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]100.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]33.33%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]43.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]29[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]42.86%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]66.67%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]--[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]57.14%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]28.57%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]53.85%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]28[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Chicago[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]46.15%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]66.67%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]43.48%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]63.83%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]27[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Dallas[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]46.67%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]33.33%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]55.56%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]33.33%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]64.91%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]26[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]St Louis[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]48.15%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]40.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]46.15%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]25[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Denver[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]48.48%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]55.56%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]57.14%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]42.11%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]63.49%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]24[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Jacksonville[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]53.33%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]100.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]33.33%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]62.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]40.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]23[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Baltimore[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]51.35%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]37.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]62.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]42.86%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]54.93%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]22[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Seattle[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]51.61%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]81.82%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]75.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]56.25%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]46.67%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]52.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]21[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Tampa Bay[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]52.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]72.73%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]75.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]57.14%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]47.37%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]53.85%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Philadelphia[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]53.12%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]100.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]100.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]43.75%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]62.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]49.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]19[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Kansas City[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]55.32%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]69.23%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]100.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]37.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]64.52%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]58.33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]18[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Indianapolis[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]56.10%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]38.46%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]16.67%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]52.63%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]59.09%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]55.07%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]17[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Miami[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]56.67%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]75.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]--[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]40.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]60.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]51.47%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]16[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]57.14%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]42.86%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]75.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]58.62%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]53.85%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]51.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Buffalo[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]57.69%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]62.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]75.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]66.67%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]45.45%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]43.14%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Washington[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]58.06%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]65.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]45.45%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]47.92%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Atlanta[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]58.14%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]33.33%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]56.52%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]60.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]61.36%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Houston[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]60.61%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]66.67%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]100.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]43.75%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]76.47%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]54.17%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Arizona[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]60.78%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]53.85%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]59.09%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]62.07%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]43.59%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Green Bay[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]61.11%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]75.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]52.94%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]68.42%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]57.14%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]San Diego[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]61.76%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]80.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]--[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]64.71%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]58.82%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]54.17%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]New Orleans[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]62.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]100.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]75.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]50.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]60.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Tennessee[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]63.64%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]71.43%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]75.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]60.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]69.23%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]48.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Oakland[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]63.64%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]85.71%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]100.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]69.23%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]60.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]71.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Carolina[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]65.31%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]78.57%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]83.33%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]68.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]62.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]48.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]New England[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]66.67%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]66.67%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]80.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]68.57%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]62.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]62.96%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Cincinnati[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]66.67%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]66.67%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]40.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]70.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]64.29%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]58.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]Detroit[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]67.65%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]69.23%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]66.67%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]69.23%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]62.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]53.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: rank text-center"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: text-left nowrap"]NY Jets[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right sorting_1"]68.29%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]60.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]25.00%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]73.91%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]61.11%[/TD]
[TD="class: text-right"]36.17%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]



That's all games this season.... 2nd worst overall and worst at home

 

[D-Woww]

the two best points in this thread:

BAR about it being a compact area. I'd rather go for this on the 30 where the receivers have room to get open. if ur going for 4th and 2 here, u prob want to run the ball.

Gandolf with the point that even with this bad decision, the giants still blew the game on the field. Coughlin didnt let the Jets score 10 in the final 7 mins

 

[nbafan88]

And their o-line play sucks so its not like they had the choice or the personnel to score a TD like a lot of other teams in that situation (by running the ball)

 

[Gandolf]

Are those %s for the entire NFL or specific to each team?


Giving general %s of the likelihood of a scenario with the entire NFL included is ridiculous on so many levels. The coach is responsible for knowing his team's strengths and weaknesses. What Coughlin has tried to do over and over again this season is the definition of insanity.

- The Giants suck at scoring TDs in the redzone.
- The Giants suck in close games

Of course it's for the entire league. I've never seen a team specific calculation, probably because by using 1/32nd of the available data it would be more prone to wide and erroneous fluctuations.

Dude if you don't believe the numbers then why quote the 99.4% number? If one's not right then why would the other make sense?

 

[cubsker]

this whole thread makes my fucking head hurt.

 

[nbafan88]

Of course it's for the entire league. I've never seen a team specific calculation, probably because by using 1/32nd of the available data it would be more prone to wide and erroneous fluctuations.

Dude if you don't believe the numbers then why quote the 99.4% number? If one's not right then why would the other make sense?

I never said I don't believe the numbers. It's just pointless to look at league wide %s when every team is so different and the other things I posted above. I pointed it out because I was listening to the television and it was different than what you posted. Just can't understand how anyone can truly feel that was the right decision at the time

 

[Gandolf]

Just from a brief look I think Advanced is more beholden to past results while PFR is more like regression analysis.

Different methods producing slightly different results. I see that all the time in horse racing with the different speed and performance ratings available.