One NFL Prop That Every Bettor Needs To Invest In
Tom Brady: Over or Under 4,400 Passing Yards
Superficial Skepticism
On the surface, the „under“ might seem like an easy call.
After all, he’s almost 43 years old and his numbers were relatively ugly last season.
But, surely, one statistically weaker season from Brady cannot by itself lead one to expect the same in the following year.
After all, in 2006, he finished with a lower passer rating (87.9) than he did last season (88). In the following year, 2007, his passer rating jumped to 117.2.
The reason why people might want to take the „under“ is that last year’s lower numbers combined with his age may motivate speculation that he’s in decline.
Yet, as the comparison between 2006 and 2007 shows, one year’s numbers are meaningless.
As for age: yes, Tom is old. He’s been old for a while. And, if nature takes its course, he’ll continue getting older.
But who says that 42 or 43 is the limit? While it is highly unusual to thrive at this age, Brady is a highly unusual player.
What Held Brady Back?
If Tom’s old age didn’t hinder New England’s offensive productivity last season, then what did?
New England was desperate to help Tom out with a stronger pass-catching crew especially after Gronk retired.
So the Patriots brought in Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, N’Keal Harry, Mohamed Sanu, and Josh Gordon.
Brown didn’t pan out due to off-the-field issues. Gordon couldn’t manage his work ethic or off-the-field issues. Thomas was cut and, after resigning, traded.
Sanu, after arriving to New England halfway through the season, struggled with injury issues and never meshed with Tom. Harry, a rookie with growing pains, missed nine games.
Only Edelman
Because he hasn’t really deteriorated, Brady was able to be just as successful in connecting with Julian Edelman as before.
Compared to 2016, which had been Edelman’s last 16-game season, Edelman’s target-to-catch ratio, receptions, yards, and yards per catch were nearly identical.
In 2019, arguably due to the absence of a characteristic end zone threat, Edelman caught three more touchdowns (six) than in 2016 (three).
Moreover, the absence of a deep threat hurt Brady’s yardage total.
When Brady produced 4,806 yards in 2007, he benefitted from having an elite deep threat in Randy Moss.
In 2019, his only trusted target was Edelman. Although, at 5’10, Edelman is not an end zone, deep ball, or contested catch threat.
Edelman is strictly a shorter-yardage receiver who, primarily from the slot, utilizes elite footwork and explosive cuts to gain quick separation.
He was the only guy who Brady could rely on to win one-on-one battles.
With Brady’s lack of alternative weapons, and despite being extremely injury-ridden, Edelman was targeted the third-highest amount of times in the league.
Second-highest in targets on the team was running back James White. They were the only two Patriot players with over 29 receptions and 54 targets.
Still Elite
In addition to Edelman’s continued efficiency, one more stat shows that Brady is still supremely capable: the deep ball.
Of course, Brady didn’t throw the deep ball often. This is a trivially true fact given Brady’s absence of deep threats and the Patriot style of offense.
But when he threw it deep, he did all a quarterback could.
According to the advanced metrics, 41% of his deep balls were catchable.
For comparison’s sake, this percentage in previous years, as Brady was younger, was 42 in 2018, 46 in 2017, 43 in 2016, 45 in 2015, and 33 in 2014.
Per PFF, Brady was also one of the very best quarterbacks in terms of adjusted completion percentage (this statistic accounts for drops) on pass attempts of 20+ yards.
What Does Tampa Bay Have To Offer
Brady’s numbers will approximate his 2007 total because in Tampa Bay he’ll have far superior wide receivers and stronger pass protection.
Mike Evans, with his size at 6-5 and with his speed score in the 96th percentile, is an elite deep threat and hence one of the most targeted deep threats.
Chris Godwin thrives in the slot, which Brady loves to throw to. He actually enjoyed a higher catch rate from the slot than Edelman did last year.
Godwin is bigger and stronger. So he can be more physical in gaining separation and in accruing yards after the catch.
Gronkowski is still relatively young — he’s about to turn 31 — and fresh. He is a historically favorite target of Brady and a reliable vertical and red zone threat.
OJ Howard is another vertical threat who enjoys 98th-percentile speed score, one of the highest downfield target rates, and a superb ability to grab contested balls.
As for offensive line play, Tampa Bay’s outranked New England’s last year per PFF. Ryan Jensen and Ali Marpet were high-caliber in terms of PFF pass block grade.
In the NFL Draft, the Bucs added tackle Tristan Wirfs, an absolute steal.
Wirfs is ready to make an instant impact after allowing all of two sacks in 461 pass-blocking snaps last year in Iowa’s NFL-like offensive scheme.
So, Brady has the deep threats, the receivers who can win one-on-one and 50-50 battles, and the pass protection to reach career highs in passing yardage.
Wrap-Up
Brady was really close in 2018 to 4,400 yards when he had Edelman, Gordon, and Gronk although each player missed multiple games.
He last eclipsed 4,400 in 2017 when he didn’t have Edelman but had Gronk and Brandin Cooks, both of whom enjoyed high-ranking YPR (yards per reception) thanks to Brady.
Brady is still capable of thriving. He only needs weapons and he has more than a modicum of them plus the required protection in Tampa Bay.
As he did with an older Carson Palmer in Arizona, Bruce Arians will revive Brady statistically.
Best Bet: Tom Brady Over 4,400 yards (-105) with BetOnline
Tom Brady: Over or Under 4,400 Passing Yards
Superficial Skepticism
On the surface, the „under“ might seem like an easy call.
After all, he’s almost 43 years old and his numbers were relatively ugly last season.
But, surely, one statistically weaker season from Brady cannot by itself lead one to expect the same in the following year.
After all, in 2006, he finished with a lower passer rating (87.9) than he did last season (88). In the following year, 2007, his passer rating jumped to 117.2.
The reason why people might want to take the „under“ is that last year’s lower numbers combined with his age may motivate speculation that he’s in decline.
Yet, as the comparison between 2006 and 2007 shows, one year’s numbers are meaningless.
As for age: yes, Tom is old. He’s been old for a while. And, if nature takes its course, he’ll continue getting older.
But who says that 42 or 43 is the limit? While it is highly unusual to thrive at this age, Brady is a highly unusual player.
What Held Brady Back?
If Tom’s old age didn’t hinder New England’s offensive productivity last season, then what did?
New England was desperate to help Tom out with a stronger pass-catching crew especially after Gronk retired.
So the Patriots brought in Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, N’Keal Harry, Mohamed Sanu, and Josh Gordon.
Brown didn’t pan out due to off-the-field issues. Gordon couldn’t manage his work ethic or off-the-field issues. Thomas was cut and, after resigning, traded.
Sanu, after arriving to New England halfway through the season, struggled with injury issues and never meshed with Tom. Harry, a rookie with growing pains, missed nine games.
Only Edelman
Because he hasn’t really deteriorated, Brady was able to be just as successful in connecting with Julian Edelman as before.
Compared to 2016, which had been Edelman’s last 16-game season, Edelman’s target-to-catch ratio, receptions, yards, and yards per catch were nearly identical.
In 2019, arguably due to the absence of a characteristic end zone threat, Edelman caught three more touchdowns (six) than in 2016 (three).
Moreover, the absence of a deep threat hurt Brady’s yardage total.
When Brady produced 4,806 yards in 2007, he benefitted from having an elite deep threat in Randy Moss.
In 2019, his only trusted target was Edelman. Although, at 5’10, Edelman is not an end zone, deep ball, or contested catch threat.
Edelman is strictly a shorter-yardage receiver who, primarily from the slot, utilizes elite footwork and explosive cuts to gain quick separation.
He was the only guy who Brady could rely on to win one-on-one battles.
With Brady’s lack of alternative weapons, and despite being extremely injury-ridden, Edelman was targeted the third-highest amount of times in the league.
Second-highest in targets on the team was running back James White. They were the only two Patriot players with over 29 receptions and 54 targets.
Still Elite
In addition to Edelman’s continued efficiency, one more stat shows that Brady is still supremely capable: the deep ball.
Of course, Brady didn’t throw the deep ball often. This is a trivially true fact given Brady’s absence of deep threats and the Patriot style of offense.
But when he threw it deep, he did all a quarterback could.
According to the advanced metrics, 41% of his deep balls were catchable.
For comparison’s sake, this percentage in previous years, as Brady was younger, was 42 in 2018, 46 in 2017, 43 in 2016, 45 in 2015, and 33 in 2014.
Per PFF, Brady was also one of the very best quarterbacks in terms of adjusted completion percentage (this statistic accounts for drops) on pass attempts of 20+ yards.
What Does Tampa Bay Have To Offer
Brady’s numbers will approximate his 2007 total because in Tampa Bay he’ll have far superior wide receivers and stronger pass protection.
Mike Evans, with his size at 6-5 and with his speed score in the 96th percentile, is an elite deep threat and hence one of the most targeted deep threats.
Chris Godwin thrives in the slot, which Brady loves to throw to. He actually enjoyed a higher catch rate from the slot than Edelman did last year.
Godwin is bigger and stronger. So he can be more physical in gaining separation and in accruing yards after the catch.
Gronkowski is still relatively young — he’s about to turn 31 — and fresh. He is a historically favorite target of Brady and a reliable vertical and red zone threat.
OJ Howard is another vertical threat who enjoys 98th-percentile speed score, one of the highest downfield target rates, and a superb ability to grab contested balls.
As for offensive line play, Tampa Bay’s outranked New England’s last year per PFF. Ryan Jensen and Ali Marpet were high-caliber in terms of PFF pass block grade.
In the NFL Draft, the Bucs added tackle Tristan Wirfs, an absolute steal.
Wirfs is ready to make an instant impact after allowing all of two sacks in 461 pass-blocking snaps last year in Iowa’s NFL-like offensive scheme.
So, Brady has the deep threats, the receivers who can win one-on-one and 50-50 battles, and the pass protection to reach career highs in passing yardage.
Wrap-Up
Brady was really close in 2018 to 4,400 yards when he had Edelman, Gordon, and Gronk although each player missed multiple games.
He last eclipsed 4,400 in 2017 when he didn’t have Edelman but had Gronk and Brandin Cooks, both of whom enjoyed high-ranking YPR (yards per reception) thanks to Brady.
Brady is still capable of thriving. He only needs weapons and he has more than a modicum of them plus the required protection in Tampa Bay.
As he did with an older Carson Palmer in Arizona, Bruce Arians will revive Brady statistically.
Best Bet: Tom Brady Over 4,400 yards (-105) with BetOnline
