NCAA Football Week 12 MAC Parlay Plays: Bets to Win Big
Toledo Rockets vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles
Wednesday, November 18, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (CBSSN) at Rynearson Stadium in Ypsilanti, Michigan
Eastern Michigan Run Defense
Eastern Michigan has failed to win a game primarily because of its run defense.
While EMU is still 2-0 ATS, both of its favored opponents were within one or two points of covering the spread.
Those two opponents ran the ball 60.12 percent of the time, which puts EMU at 118th nationally in opposing run play percentage.
After facing Ball State and Kent State, the Eagles rank second-to-last in the MAC in allowing 258 rushing yards per game.
Toledo Ground Game In Comparison
Both Ball State and Kent State were teams that one could expect to dominate the Eagles on the ground.
Last year, Ball State ranked 19th in rushing yards per game while Kent State ranked 34th.
Ball State brought back its 1,200+-yard rusher while Kent State’s coach promised to emphasize running the ball and is doing just that with multiple running backs.
While Toledo has wanted and wants to run the ball, too, it’s struggling to do that as a result of key injuries on its offensive line.
After its starting left tackle suffered a long-term injury, Toledo’s starting right tackle followed suit.
So the Rockets no longer have the offensive line, the run-blocking, in order to run the ball down their opponent’s throat.
As a result, to give an example, starting running back Bryant Koback ran for 177 yards on 21 carries last year against Western Michigan.
This year, however, Koback accrued three more carries against Western Michigan, but ran for 99 fewer years.
Eli Peters
So to have a chance of covering against Eastern Michigan, Toledo will want to dominate on the ground.
Going back to last year, Toledo is more likely to cover the spread when it keeps the ball on the ground, and succeeds on the ground, than when it asks quarterback Eli Peters to throw the ball 40+ times like he did last week.
Peters, who is averaging 7.1 YPA, is not the most aggressive, downfield-throwing quarterback. His leading pass-catcher is actually Koback, his running back. He’s not going to carry Toledo’s offense when he doesn’t get much run support.
Toledo Pass Defense
In terms of opposing passing yards per game, the Rockets rank sixth out of 12 teams in the MAC.
They look better in terms of pass defense than they are in reality.
Out of two games, they benefitted in one from facing a Bowling Green State quarterback who’s completing just 28 percent of his passes and has thrown zero touchdowns to two interceptions in two games so far.
Part of why Toledo’s pass defense is weak is that the team struggles to find any able pass rushers.
Pass rush was arguably the team’s defensive weakness last year and it continues to be a weakness this year.
Right now, the Rockets rank 122nd nationally in sack percentage.
Their lack of pass rush is important because their cornerbacks can only cover the opposing wide receiver for so much time.
When an opposing quarterback has more time to throw, he’s more likely to find a favorable target eventually.
Preston Hutchinson
Now, it’s hard for an offense to do anything when the quarterback barely completes a quarter of his passes.
In Preston Hutchinson, Eastern Michigan has a competent quarterback, but one who isn’t scary enough to reliably gash an opposing defense.
Granted, it’s hard for Hutchinson to look very good when he has to replace an All-MAC second-teamer in the departed Mike Glass. But he’s also failing to complete 60 percent of his pass attempts.
Besides regressing at quarterback, the EMU offense is also seeing new wide receivers step up to become leaders in yardage. It’s also asking more of its tight ends in the passing game.
Hutchinson is moreover trying to fill a void left by departed running back Shaq Vann. Whereas EMU’s quarterback last year was the team’s second-leading rusher, Hutchinson is currently the top Eagle ball-carrier while averaging only 3.1 YPC.
The Verdict
The total is too high given what each team has to offer offensively.
Behind its regressed offensive line, Toledo lacks the ability to exploit Eastern Michigan’s weakness on defense.
While the Rockets will still want to run the ball, they will continue to struggle to be efficient.
Likewise, Eastern Michigan’s offense will be characterized by a low YPP (Yards Per Play) average.
Without big play ability, too much clock will run before a decent scoring output can be obtained by either team.
Without a good ground game, the Rockets will fail to separate themselves from Eastern Michigan.
A balanced Eagle offense led by backup-turned-starter Hutchinson will be comfortable against Toledo’s lack of pass rush.
So expect the underdog to cover and the total to stay under.
Best Bet: Parlay Eagles +7 (-115) & Under 59 (-110) at +257 odds at BetOnline
Toledo Rockets vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles
Wednesday, November 18, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (CBSSN) at Rynearson Stadium in Ypsilanti, Michigan
Eastern Michigan Run Defense
Eastern Michigan has failed to win a game primarily because of its run defense.
While EMU is still 2-0 ATS, both of its favored opponents were within one or two points of covering the spread.
Those two opponents ran the ball 60.12 percent of the time, which puts EMU at 118th nationally in opposing run play percentage.
After facing Ball State and Kent State, the Eagles rank second-to-last in the MAC in allowing 258 rushing yards per game.
Toledo Ground Game In Comparison
Both Ball State and Kent State were teams that one could expect to dominate the Eagles on the ground.
Last year, Ball State ranked 19th in rushing yards per game while Kent State ranked 34th.
Ball State brought back its 1,200+-yard rusher while Kent State’s coach promised to emphasize running the ball and is doing just that with multiple running backs.
While Toledo has wanted and wants to run the ball, too, it’s struggling to do that as a result of key injuries on its offensive line.
After its starting left tackle suffered a long-term injury, Toledo’s starting right tackle followed suit.
So the Rockets no longer have the offensive line, the run-blocking, in order to run the ball down their opponent’s throat.
As a result, to give an example, starting running back Bryant Koback ran for 177 yards on 21 carries last year against Western Michigan.
This year, however, Koback accrued three more carries against Western Michigan, but ran for 99 fewer years.
Eli Peters
So to have a chance of covering against Eastern Michigan, Toledo will want to dominate on the ground.
Going back to last year, Toledo is more likely to cover the spread when it keeps the ball on the ground, and succeeds on the ground, than when it asks quarterback Eli Peters to throw the ball 40+ times like he did last week.
Peters, who is averaging 7.1 YPA, is not the most aggressive, downfield-throwing quarterback. His leading pass-catcher is actually Koback, his running back. He’s not going to carry Toledo’s offense when he doesn’t get much run support.
Toledo Pass Defense
In terms of opposing passing yards per game, the Rockets rank sixth out of 12 teams in the MAC.
They look better in terms of pass defense than they are in reality.
Out of two games, they benefitted in one from facing a Bowling Green State quarterback who’s completing just 28 percent of his passes and has thrown zero touchdowns to two interceptions in two games so far.
Part of why Toledo’s pass defense is weak is that the team struggles to find any able pass rushers.
Pass rush was arguably the team’s defensive weakness last year and it continues to be a weakness this year.
Right now, the Rockets rank 122nd nationally in sack percentage.
Their lack of pass rush is important because their cornerbacks can only cover the opposing wide receiver for so much time.
When an opposing quarterback has more time to throw, he’s more likely to find a favorable target eventually.
Preston Hutchinson
Now, it’s hard for an offense to do anything when the quarterback barely completes a quarter of his passes.
In Preston Hutchinson, Eastern Michigan has a competent quarterback, but one who isn’t scary enough to reliably gash an opposing defense.
Granted, it’s hard for Hutchinson to look very good when he has to replace an All-MAC second-teamer in the departed Mike Glass. But he’s also failing to complete 60 percent of his pass attempts.
Besides regressing at quarterback, the EMU offense is also seeing new wide receivers step up to become leaders in yardage. It’s also asking more of its tight ends in the passing game.
Hutchinson is moreover trying to fill a void left by departed running back Shaq Vann. Whereas EMU’s quarterback last year was the team’s second-leading rusher, Hutchinson is currently the top Eagle ball-carrier while averaging only 3.1 YPC.
The Verdict
The total is too high given what each team has to offer offensively.
Behind its regressed offensive line, Toledo lacks the ability to exploit Eastern Michigan’s weakness on defense.
While the Rockets will still want to run the ball, they will continue to struggle to be efficient.
Likewise, Eastern Michigan’s offense will be characterized by a low YPP (Yards Per Play) average.
Without big play ability, too much clock will run before a decent scoring output can be obtained by either team.
Without a good ground game, the Rockets will fail to separate themselves from Eastern Michigan.
A balanced Eagle offense led by backup-turned-starter Hutchinson will be comfortable against Toledo’s lack of pass rush.
So expect the underdog to cover and the total to stay under.
Best Bet: Parlay Eagles +7 (-115) & Under 59 (-110) at +257 odds at BetOnline
