Today Is Saturday, And This Is My Do Or Die Play. May Be Last.

S

Sparky1019

Pretty much a regular
167-161-4 -$13391 1st Half
23-30 -$6595 2nd Half
190-191-4 -$19986 YTD

If this play does not win, I will see you during the basketball season. Biggest bet ever. So... Anyway, on to today.

Red Sox -115
Risking $23,000 to win $20,000
I'm sure that many of you don't believe this, but thats ok. Lets give it a go. I was very impressed with Lester's return. And I don't think that was just a 1 night stand. Sure it was emotional, but to pitch as well as he did against a hot hitting Indians team, while on the road, it very impressive. Lester was awsome last season, and I expect him to continue after his last outing. As for Shields, he hasn't been that awsome. He is 1-2 in his last 3 starts going 16.1 innings, giving up 26 hits, has a WHIP of 1.96 and an ERA of 9.37. Yep, not that good. And even if Lester gets knocked around for a few runs, the Red Sox bullpen is awsome. They have a WHIP of 0.81, and an ERA of 1.37 in their last 19.2 innings. As for the Rays, who will need the bullpen to relieve Shields as he has not been going his normal length. And in their last 26 innings, they have a WHIP of 2.35, and an ERA of 11.77. But this isn't all about stats, this is about what I have been hearing since I made the thread with the question. This game is about the situation. Lester, and the Red Sox know that they need wonderful outings by him to continue the run to compete with the hot Yankees. The BoSox have won 7 of their last 8 games, and the Rays have lost their last 7 games. Why not go with the hotter team, the better pitcher, and the better bullpen to win the game at a cheap price.

I'll Have my daily stats later on in the day.

BOL All. Have A Great Day.
Peace_5.gif
 
sparky, gotta be honest, I do not think id like the play if not for how WELL the Yanks aer playing at the moment.....I like to think a strong sense of urgency wold be setting in for Boston and they need to take care of the teams they SHOULD take care of, TB being one of them.....

Obviously, the only reason your not laying a bunch more juice is because of Shields, cause he has looked good for most of the season, so your timing might be spot on here.....Even if he were facing Dice-K or Beckett, I respect Shields enuff to where I'd set the line around -135 to -140, and nothing more

I wish you the best of luck
 
Saw your thread at Covers and looked at it. Ump seems no homer this year. Shield is 2-5 last 7 winning at home vs Ervin Santana a road cripple and on the road vs Perez of KC a home cripple. In the other 5 games he pitched poorly. Boston is 7 games plus in night games and Tampa is minus 17. Tampa is 5-15 last 20 vs lefties. Boston is recently playing well that seems true. On Sunday Kaz goes. He has won 4 straight at home vs Boston and is playing at a high level recently so winning today is very inportant for Boston as they can lose very easily tomorrow against the real pitcher. You do have a large edge in pens. Its certainly not the best game available but it is also positive equity and worth a bet so I am down for a unit on it. Lets assume you win which I think the odds favor. You will be even. Hile is hitting a very high percentage on his totals. Why not start hitting them for 500 or 1000 a game as well as your own bets? GL
 
First of all I don't like your bet one bit. Yes, Boston is clearly the better team and Tampa is in the dumps and perhaps mailing it in for all we know. However, Jon Lester is likely no more than a five or six inning pitcher at best. You need to remember that last Monday night the Indians were a tired team having played Sunday night in Texas and arriving home at 6:00 AM. No, I'm not taking anything away from Lester's performance but if you watched the game you would remember that he got out of a few really tight jams. All I know is if Lester struggles early on you're going to have your money likely banked on Julian Tavarez. That's some scary shit right there. Talk about someone who has been brutal for the past couple months and you have Tavarez. He was warming in the pen Monday night in Cleveland ready to back up Lester and I'm sure it will be more of the same tonight if Lester struggles.

By the way Lester wasn't exactly lights out last year. He struggled quite a bit after a decent start.

Tampa Bay has been the house of horrors for Red Sox teams in past years. Not that that means anything concerning tonights game but for what ever reason the REd Sox seem to find ways to lose close games over and over at the Trop.

By the way the bet of the weekend is Kazmir over Dice K. Then take your winnings and plop it down on Rogers over Blanton Monday night at the Oakland Coliseum. Now that's smart gambling. Today you're really rolling the dice. I hope you don't crap out.
 
Tavarez? Boston has Timlin, Lopez, Okajima, and Papelbon all rested and all with no earned runs last 3 starts and Shields is 0-2 at home vs Boston plus the real strength of the bet is Kaz starting Sunday. Not saying this is easy but it is reasonable.
 
If LEster struggles it will be Tavarez ready to back him up. I'm pretty sure that's the plan.

Not saying the Red Sox are losing this game today but I am of the belief this is a very dangerous bet to make on Boston.
 
tampa has lost 7 in a row, lester is teh fell good story. hope your right. i would lean tampa but no play for me. therefore, im pulling for ya. best of luck.
 
HUNTDOG Thanks bro. :shake:

hile Thanks bro. :shake: I agree with you. But Shields isn't the greatest pitcher, especially lately. The Yanks roughed him up and the now BoSox need to stand up the Yanks. Or at least I hope so. :cheers:

Terpman Thanks bro. :shake: GL to you as well. :cheers:

tuck That is some seriously nice stats you posted. Thanks for the info. :cheers: :shake:

TrueBlue Thanks bro. :shake:

handy But that is what Lester did last season. He bailed out of jams, and he is good at it. But Taverez isn't the only pitcher in the pen. There is Timlin who can go an inning or two. I expect Lester to go 6 innings at the least, and then Timlin, Okajima, and Papelbon will come in. If they even need them. And I'll look at those 2 games you mentioned. Because I don't expect to crap out tonight. :shake: :cheers:

Yanks Thanks bro. :shake: :cheers:

PRECISE Thanks bro. :shake: :cheers:

t-dot Thanks. :shake: Hopfully it wins. :cheers:

BetCrimes Thanks bro. :shake: Thanks for the extra stat. Always good to keep adding up those stats.

MusicCityGambler Thanks. :shake:

STEED Thanks bro. :shake:

abc I'll provide the beers. Not a problem. lol. :shake: :cheers:

Farm Thanks. :shake:

reNew Thanks bro. :shake: :cheers:

brewer Thanks bro. :shake: :cheers:
 
Stats Time:


0 AB v Miller
In 26 AB v Saunders, the Tigers have 5 Hits, 0 HR, 0 RBIs, 0 BB, 5 Ks, .192 BA, .192 OB%

In 367 AB v Maddux, the Astros have 104 Hits, 9 HR, 28 RBIs, 16 BB, 47 Ks, .283 BA, .318 OB%
In 130 AB v Oswalt, the Padres have 35 Hits, 2 HR, 19 RBIs, 11 BB, 31 Ks, .269 BA, .331 OB%

In 28 AB v Smoltz, the DBacks have 8 Hits, 2 HR, 4 RBIs, 0 BB, 10 Ks, .286 BA, .286 OB%
In 24 AB v Davis, the Braves have 11 Hits, 1 HR, 3 RBIs, 3 BB, 4 Ks, .458 BA, .500 OB%

In 79 AB v Gaudin, the Mariners have 23 Hits, 1 HR, 10 RBIs, 9 BB, 11 Ks, .291 BA, .360 OB%
In 35 AB v Ramirez, the A's have 10 Hits, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 4 BB, 2 Ks, .286 BA, .359 OB%

In 244 AB v Clemens, the Orioles have 64 Hits, 6 HR, 34 RBIs, 18 BB, 47 Ks, .262 BA, .318 OB%
In 12 AB v Burres, the Yanks have 1 Hit(Melky), 0 HR, 0 RBIs, 0 BB, 2 Ks, .083 BA, .083 OB%

In 158 AB against Halladay, the Chi.Sox have 44 Hits, 3 HR, 13 RBIs, 14 BB, 35 Ks, .278 BA, .343 OB%
In 117 AB v Buehrle, the Jays have 32 Hits, 7 HR, 22 RBIs, 8 BB, 20 Ks, .274 BA, .315 OB%

In 232 AB v Santana, the Indians have 50 Hits, 10 HR, 23 RBIs, 14 BB, 74 Ks, .216 BA, .265 OB%
In 231 AB v Westbrook, the Twins have 52 Hits, 1 HR, 22 RBIs, 22 BB, 29 Ks, .242 BA, .318 OB%

0 AB v Youman
0 AB v Durbin

In 120 AB v Millwood, the Royals have 30 Hits, 2 HR, 14 RBIs, 9 BB, 26 Ks, .250 BA, .298 OB%
In 51 AB v Perez, the Rangers have 16 Hits, 2 HR, 3 RBIs, 3 BB, 15 Ks, .314 BA, .362 OB%

In 2 AB v Marshall (Conine), 1 Hit, .500 BA, .500 OB%
In 148 AB v Harang, the Cubs have 42 Hits, 5 HR, 18 RBIs, 11 BB, 27 Ks, .284 BA, .331 OB%

0 AB v Lester
In 25 AB v Shields, the BoSox have 7 Hits, 4 HR, 6 RBIs, 4 BB, 9 Ks, .280 BA, .400 OB%

0 AB v Hanrahan
Unknown Status v Pelfry

In 34 AB v Billingsley, the Rockies have 12 Hits, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 8 BB, 6 Ks, .353 BA, .476 OB%
In 109 AB v Francis, the Dodgers have 30 Hits, 1 HR, 10 RBIs, 9 BB, 16 Ks, .275 BA, .344 OB%

In 182 AB v Capuano, the Cards have 47 Hits, 7 HR, 27 RBIs, 20 BB, 28 Ks, .258 BA, .340 OB%
In 173 AB v Wells, the Brewers have 38 Hits, 4 HR, 20 RBIs, 25 BB, 35 Ks, .220 BA, .318 OB%

In 77 AB v Willis, the Giants have 14 Hits, 2 HR, 7 RBIs, 9 BB, 14 Ks, .182 BA, .284 OB%
0 AB v Cain
 
HOT:
Det hits .306 v Lefties L10
Smoltz-ATL-1.20-1.80
ATL hits .329 v Lefties L10
Ari Bullpen-0.88-1.69
Halladay-Tor-1.14-2.57
Tor Bullpen-0.98-1.27
NYY Hit .349 v Lefties L10
NYY Bullpen-1.08-1.33
Bal Bullpen-1.03-1.11
Phi hits .363 v Lefties L10
Millwood-Tex-1.42-2.95
Tex hits .315 v Lefties L10
Marshall-CHC-1.33-2.60
Harang-Cin-1.18-2.28
Bos Bullpen-0.81-1.37
Billingsley-LAD-1.30-2.70
SF Bullpen-1.22-1.17

NOT:
Miller-Det-2.11-4.91
LAA Hits .185 v Lefties L10
Det Bullpen-1.56-6.00
Ari hits .227 v Righties L10
Oswalt-Hou-1.47-5.89
SD hits .226 v Righties L10
Hou hits .221 v Righties L10
SD Bullpen-1.60-5.92
Gaudin-Oak-2.71-9.88
Ramirez-Sea-1.61-8.56
Oak hits .133 v Lefties L10
Sea Bullpen-1.32-5.55
Westbrook-Cle-1.83-6.00
Cle Bullpen-1.70-5.40
Burres-Bal-1.80-8.40
Pit hits .230 v Righties
Perez-KC-1.74-6.48
Cin hits .205 v Lefties L10
Cin Bullpen-1.43-5.09
Shields-TB-1.96-9.36
TB Bullpen-2.35-11.77
Francis-COL-1.44-6.50
LAD Bullpen-1.40-6.43
COL Bullpen-1.59-5.96
Willis-Fla-2.62-8.78
Cain-SF-2.10-8.10
SF hits .228 v Lefties

*Note, Pitchers stats include the WHIP first and the ERA
 
So anybody like the tigers here in a bit or do you think they're still gonna have trouble with Saunders??
 
Sparky GL on your play. I think it's the right side. While Lester struggled a bit for the Pawsox supposedly he found something a month ago and now he's getting more 'over the top' on his breaking stuff. Went to the game last night and TB hitters looked over matched most of the night. Kinda like a home game for the Sox with about 2/3 fans rooting for them. I'm on this one with you.
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=268 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=3>Last Play: A. Cora grounded into fielder's choice, M. Lowell out at home, J. Varitek to third, C. Crisp to second </TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Last Play: J. Lugo walked, J. Varitek scored, C. Crisp to third, A. Cora to second

7-6 Boston, lucky dog
 
12-6 now. By far the most I have ever sweated on a game I bet 1 unit on but it really would have been terrible for you to lose with a great closer and a 2 run lead. Go Sparky!!!:smiley_acbe:
 
That's what I'm talking about ! conrats spark !!!!!

hell ya !:cheers::bow::cheers::36_11_6::tiphat::smiley_acbe:
 
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