Today Is Saturday, And Here's Another HUGE Play!!!

Sparky1019

Pretty much a regular
I have not bet basketball since the Seattle win, but I have another play that is sort of like that but with a little change. So...Anyway, on to today.

Bucks -2.5 -110
Risking $2200 to win $2000
Lets start off by saying that Vince Carter and Charlie Villanueva are both questionable for tonight's game. But even if Vince plays and Charlie doesn't I still like this play because it is a BIG revenge game. The Nets have beaten the Bucks all 3 meetings this season, with all wins being by bigger margins. They won by 2 in the 1st meeting in Milwaukee(97-95). They won by 7 in the next meeting in Jersey(87-80). And then they won by 14 in the 3rd meeting in Jersey(120-106). So now its payback time when the Bucks come back home to win this 4th meeting against Jersey by a large margin. Both teams are playing back to back games coming off the road, but the Nets are playing their 3rd straight game on the road after getting demolished by Toronto last night and being officially eliminated from playoff contention. The Nets have nothing to play for, but on the other hand, the Bucks have their pride to play for, and they are home, and that is the worst thing to happen to any team during the regular season, being swept in 4 games and being embarrassed in front of your home crowd. This line is a bargain, and you better get it while you can because if VC is anounced out later in the day, this line will jump.
Prediction: Bucks 114 Nets 87

BOL All. Have A Great Day.
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Oddly enough I'm not as worried as I could be. Either they'll suck it up and beat a team they should or they'll lay down and lose. I tailed here because I like the spot for 'em and their motivation.

What bothers me is that I HATE the range of -1 to -3.5 in basketball. I do everything I can to avoid playing in there because, invariably, the team wins but doesn't cover. Actually, this happened the other night with Dallas as a -5. I hoped that line wasn't going to be that high so I laid off, but I also rationalized my decision by thinking, 'it is getting close to that window which I hate to play.'

Sure enough, win, but no cover.

So I would feel much, much better about this wager if I was on it at the PK rather than the -2.5. Yes, I could have laid -140 for the ML earlier, but I bailed out on that and laid a number I don't like.

We'll see if it matters.

My guess is, probably not. Either they crush them as Sparky believes, or they mail it in and lose SU. Just my gut feeling.
 
true. well it went from pick to -1 bucks now. line movement late in season is ridiculous. changes every minute. atl now -2. indy has been goin between 8-9.5 range all day. minny from +4 drop to 1.5. dallas of course to 2.5. philly up and down as well.
 
I like MILW as well probably will play it just reading as much as possible....teams usually are terrible from Det and Milw to Tor so hoping with the season over for NJN , think 5th in 7 and as mentioned the Bucks avoiding a sweep they find away. Plus I think NJN is liek 2-11 or 2-12 away since the break...hell might be one win as I only recall @ MSG

GL...
 
They suprised me @ GSW and would have to lean that way. I like the fact they can almost will there ways to win. Still have to weigh the fact UTAH is off a SU LOSS , has won 35 of 39 at home and beat Den 20 of 23 at home...really wouldnt lay the points at all...might just wait till halftime and take DEN 2nd H if they are down ...strong lean towards DEN though..

and I changed my mind on the Bucks game as MILW is the team playing 5 in 7 and what a tough week....should bean ugly game but go under actually..
 
And with the Bucks down a dozen in the third, maybe we should have taken the hint.

Come on Milwaukee, get your s**t together.
 
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