TNT Thursday

[Gorgolon Lives]

Pretty decent day yesterday. I'm going to keep riding the 2-team ML parlays down the stretch. These must-win teams have 1 thing on their mind: winning. Whether it's by 1, 5, or 10. After the Rockets last 2 games, it's going to be hard for anyone to lay road chalk over 4 points the rest of the way. These plays will be small because Friday's card might be the best we've seen all year. A play that jumps out IMMEDIATELY is Golden St. Warriors. There are at least 6 or 7 games that look good.

Plays:

ML Parlay (Betting to win 2 Units at -119 Odds): (L)

Cleveland Cavs ML -260
Atlanta Braves (MLB) -300


ML Parlay (Risking 2 Units to win 4.5 Units) (W)

Cleveland Cavs ML -260
LA Clippers ML +135


Cavs 2H -2.5 (1 Unit) (W)

Clippers 2H +.5 2 Units (W)

Match-Ups:


Cleveland Cavs

Write-up can be found here:
http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=22853

Another thing about this game is the pace. The Cavs major problem is scoring, especially down the stretch. But when they get out and run and get transitions baskets, they are unstoppable. They are 25-4 SU when scoring over 100 points. They are 24-1 ATS in those 25 wins. Nets is allowing 99PPG on the road. I think Cleveland will be able to run on the Nets. Last 3 games: Bulls got 114, Wizards got 114, and Wizards got 92. I know this is a big game for NJ also, but they have shown nothing on the road. They have had 4 huge road games out of their last 5. Here is the breakdown:

3/23 At Orlando: Loss 90-82
3/24 At Charlotte: Win 113-107
3/30 At Detroit: Loss 110-105 (Detroit was very short-handed)
4/6 At Chicago: Loss 105-74
4/10 At Washington: Win 96-92 (Washington was very short-handed)

So you can argue this is a big game for NJ seeding, but they have had some big games recently on the road and haven't played too well.


Atlanta Braves

Braves is 7-1. Washington is 1-8. The Nationals have only scored more than 3 runs in 1 game this season, and that was their only win. Smoltz is 2-0 on the year. This is the final game of the 3 game series. Atlanta has scored 8 runs in the first 2 games. 8-0 and 8-3 wins.


LA Clippers

I have a game write-up in a seperate thread. Cassell is PROB, and that draws me off the play somewhat. This play will only be for a unit or two most likely. If LAC loses tonight, they more than likely won't make the playoffs.

GL :cheers:

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I think looking at the card now, I'll probably throw out the Braves play.

ML Par: Cavs/Clippers pays 2:1 right now, and that will only get better as the day goes on.

I'll probably go 2 units Cavs spread. And 2 Units on the parlay.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Per LA Times:

Concerned the Clippers might miss the playoffs, Sam Cassell plans to return to the lineup tonight against the Lakers at Staples Center.

"I think I am going to play," said Cassell, sidelined often because of injuries this season. "I'm going to get my butt off the shelf."

Cassell has sat out the previous four games because of back spasms. The condition had limited the 13-year veteran guard to 17 minutes in the last 11 games.

The Clippers have lost three in a row with a Western Conference playoff berth at stake, and Cassell hopes to make a difference with time running out.

"My whole goal was to play Sunday [against Sacramento], but we're desperate," Cassell said. "Not that I'm the savior, but with me on the court, I bring a calm factor, which is what we need.

"That's not knocking anyone on our ballclub. I'm the guy who makes the plays to either win the game or lose the game. With Shaun [Livingston] not here, and I'm not playing, it puts pressure on guys to make plays."

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Per LA Daily News:

There also was the small matter Wednesday of the continuing saga involving injured Lakers center Kwame Brown, who is bothered by a bone bruise in his left ankle. Brown has missed the past four games and said he wouldn't play again tonight.
Jackson has said he won't push Brown to return but also makes no secret of how much he needs Brown's size on the court. Jackson said nothing had changed Wednesday in regard to Brown, though teenage center Andrew Bynum made a most curious comment.
Bynum said he'd "learned recently" that Brown would be out the rest of the season.
Brown seconded Jackson that nothing had been determined, but for the second straight day would not commit to returning for the playoffs.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Per OC Register:

The Lakers attempted to prepare for tonight's game against the Clippers against a backdrop of distractions and questions, starting with whether Vladimir Radmanovic would play his first game since injuring his shoulder while snowboarding.
Radmanovic, who has missed the past 24 games, participated in full drills and declared he was ready to play.
"It feels all right, good enough to give it a shot," Radmanovic said.
Jackson wasn't as committed. He said that while the forward looked good, he wasn't sure he was ready.
"He's still finding his way in a five-on-five game, but he did have some moments out there," Jackson said.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

This is actually an awesome piece per LA Daily News concerning the Laker distractions. Odom's website, party, and clothing-line. And Walton's relationship w/ Britney Spears:

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/ci_5647273

 

[Satyr]

excellent thread, good luck tonight. :cheers:

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

Come on Believe, the Braves are on TBS .. Smoltz v Bergmann. I think a Turner Television parlay is in order

 

[brewer]

cavs line is OTB at pinny. any word on why?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Come on Believe, the Braves are on TBS .. Smoltz v Bergmann. I think a Turner Television parlay is in order

Maybe I'll take it since its on TBS.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

cavs line is OTB at pinny. any word on why?

No! Now what...

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

My book still has -6

 

[brewer]

it just came back. it was OTB for 5 min or so

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

What # is it at ?

 

[brewer]

its back to OTB. wtf is going on?

 

[JPicks]

Pinny doesn't run the same anymore since they lost the U.S. market. They only opened up with 3 games tomorrow. Definitely hurting business. I also noticed that the Cavs game keeps going offline as well.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I dont see any news on that game, so it might just be an isolated issue w/ Pinnacle.

As for the Clippers game, Thomas is now QUES.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I locked in the ML P with Cavs/Clippers. I noticed my Cavs line jumped to 6.5 and Clippers went up to 3. So, I figured those were the best ML #'s I'd see tonight. Im risking 2 units. The bet pays over 2:1. I figured at the very least, I'll have a hedge opportunity at halftime in LA if neccessary.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I decided to lay off Cavs spread tonight. I still think they win and cover. I just dont wanna risk too much tonight because Friday looks like a big day.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

The 1st game on TNT Thurs has gone Under in reg. for 10 straight games, and in 13 of the last 15 1st games.

 

[frankiegotti]

i am on the other side of the cavs, they need to have some kind of consistency because NJ is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 against cleveland.

I like the braves tonight, it is just -280 is hard for me to take also considering atlanta has won easily the last two games. I think they win tonight here as well, i just would rather lay off.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Thanks Crimes. I actually see an UNDER here himself. 102-80 something along those lines. (I'm serious)

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

GL Frankie. I chose the Cavs ML, instead of spread. As for the Braves, Im definately not playing them alone. If I play them it will be ML parlay.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I liked in the Braves/Cavs ML P. -119 odds...Its a good bet IMO.

2 units on it.

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

Go Braves

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Go Braves

If the Braves lose to the Nats, well that's just bad luck. And that's baseball. I really HATE the sport. Hated playing, HATE watching, don't really like betting it. I just like going to the games in Philly because our stadium is AMAZING.

 

[3gamblers]

GL believe

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Cavs 2H -2.5 1 Unit

chase play w/ Braves losing.

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

Nice chase, what can you do?? Smoltz pitched well, Braves got 2 hit, shocking.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Yea, chase play should win. Frankly, Im done betting baseball. I hate it. Should be down 1 unit entering 10:45 with hedge possibilites on the Parlay since it pays over 2:1.

 

[Retburj13]

late push to lakers -3.5

hope its nets losers chasing on late game

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

Definetly a good sign for Clips backers

 

[Retburj13]

just as i say that

line jumps back down to +3

lets go clips....either way, will be fun

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

late push to lakers -3.5

hope its nets losers chasing on late game

Its not good money. Thats for sure.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

just as i say that

line jumps back down to +3

lets go clips....either way, will be fun

Looks like thats an isolated move. Most books showing 3.

 

[Retburj13]

sux dog showin late +2.5 now flat


hmmmmm

 

[Trueblue]

Either way, I think this will be played like a play off game, defense.... Clips win would signal an under in my book...gl

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I dont pay much attention to isolated book moves. They could be moving it to purposely get action because they have to much Clippers action. You just dont know.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Goin broke w/ a team that, if they lose, will be eliminated.

Clippers 2H +.5 2 Units

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Clips strugglign right now, and it looks like a bad bet. I graded the losses, just looking ahead to tomorrows big card. Dropped about 6 units tonight, unless Clips make a lucky comeback.