good luck, but can you really rely on past results for future results?
Sometimes. The theory is that certain teams have a certain style of play, which are fairly consistent. Teams that concentrate on defense, produce low scoring games. Teams in the same division, who play each other 4 times a year play a more intense game than when they play non-conference opponents, and again, produce low-scoring games. Examples: San Antonio, Houston, Min, Detroit, NOK (this year), Lakers (at home), Miami. As you will note, these teams usually finish at or near the top of their divisions. When they play each other, there are characteristics that seem to be fairly consistent, like slow starts and strong final quarters, etc.
Conversely, there are teams that play little or no defense and rely on scoring. i.e. Phx, GS, Sea, Mem. They're scoring output is usually stopped when they play one of the aforementioned defensive teams away. When at home, they can inspire a normally defensive team to run-n-gun along with them.
The o/u line is adjusted up or down based on the last 5 or so games. If a defensive team has been playing lesser teams, particularly away, and have been scoring a lot of points, it will show in the posted line, and provide value to betting the under. When the defensive teams get back home and face a conference opponent, especially toward the end of a series or season, expect a very low-scoring game.
I'm not always right on this. Nothing is full-proof. But, it has worked pretty well for me over the years.
The total line on the Dal/Hou game is right where it should be. My take is that they will begin the game in the most common fashion. (lots of defense and strong rebounding) If one or both teams come out a little cold, I'll hit the first quarter. If they both come out hot, I lose. All I need is for
one of them to come out a little cold.
Cavs/Lakers game doesn't have the same impact as the Dal/Hou game, in that they are not conference rivals. There may be some revenge involved, but primarily, this game is a show for TV. (Kobe vs LJ) The absence of playoff ramifications makes this game meaningless and loose, and I don't expect to see much in the way of defense until the 4th quarter if at all. In fact, it may just be a dunkfest.
Anyway, I hope this gives you an idea of how I look at certain games.
