NFL Week 13 Parlay (+261): Low-Scoring Titans/Eagles & High-Scoring Packers/Bears
Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia
Philadelphia's Reliance on Running the Ball
On offense, the Eagles are one of the NFL's most run-reliant teams.
They own the third-highest run-play percentage.
Philadelphia is built to focus on running the ball.
Their quarterback is a dual-threat guy for whom the team will call designed running plays, or he'll gladly scramble.
Moreover, they try to be well-stocked with multiple healthy running backs.
These facts don't entail, of course, that the Eagle rush attack will always succeed in a given game.
But it is evident that the success of Philadelphia's offense will largely depend on that of its ground game.
Titan Run Defense
One may be inclined to bet the "over" after seeing Philadelphia light up its opponent on primetime television.
But the difference in run defense quality between Green Bay, which was Philadelphia's last opponent, and Tennessee is immense.
Whereas the Packer run defense ranks 31st, Tennessee's ranks third.
The Titans are, therefore, just the opponent that run-heavy Philadelphia does not want to face.
Titan Defense vs. Mobile Quarterbacks
While the Titan run defense ranks as strongly as it does primarily because of its success against opposing running backs, Tennessee also performs solidly against mobile quarterbacks.
They've faced two so far: Giant Daniel Jones and Bill Josh Allen.
Against Tennessee, Jones ran for 25 yards and Allen ran for 10 yards.
In other words, the Titan defense limited each quarterback's rushing production to a relatively low output.
Titan Offense's Problems
If one likes the Titan defense, then one must be inclined to bet the "under" because Tennessee's offense is unreliable.
Overall, Tennessee ranks 26thin scoring offense, averaging 19 points per game.
Moreover, the Titans rank 29thin total offense.
Tennessee has a significant issue with being productive offensively.
Primarily, the Titans try to be productive by relying on their star running back.
But even his success -- in case he does have a good performance, which has been rare for him this season -- does amount to a tremendous rushing output, Tennessee still struggles to score.
For example, they ran for 314 yards in Houston but mustered 17 points.
Eagle Run Defense
Philadelphia may be thought to be handicapped by starting backup safety Reed Blankenship -- the starter, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, is listed as 'out indefinitely.'
But Blankenship is well-known for his secure tackling.
Philadelphia will anyhow have an easy time against a Titan rush attack that is held back by its offensive line play -- PFF grades show Titan offensive linemen to be struggling significantly.
The Eagles will do to Derrick Henry what they already did to Colt star running back Jonathan Taylor in their 17-16 win in Indianapolis.
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Soldier Field in Chicago
Packer Run Defense
Green Bay has one of the NFL's worst run defenses.
Their struggles in this respect were conspicuous in their most recent game, a primetime one in which the Eagles amassed 363 rushing yards en route to a 40-point scoring output.
Now, despite the absurdly high rush yardage yielded, one might be disposed to forgive Green Bay for struggling against the Eagles because the Eagles possess one of the most prolific rush attacks.
But the Packers reliably struggle against the run even against less prolific offenses and even when they know that they should expect the run.
For example, they faced a Patriot offense quarterbacked by a third-stringer.
Despite it surely being obvious that they wanted to rely primarily on their running backs, the Patriots amassed 167 rushing yards.
Many more examples attest to the low quality of Green Bay's run defense, which is explained partly by scheme-related issues and partly by personnel.
De'Vondre Campbell has been slacking off, missing lots of tackles, after signing a sweet offseason deal.
Fellow linebacker Quay Walker is still in learning mode while other Packer defenders suffer for lacking his speed and athleticism.
Chicago Rush Attack
While the Packer run defense has struggled to limit even lackluster rush attacks like New England's 23rd-ranked one, the Bear rush attack is anything but lackluster.
In fact, Chicago ranks number one, by far, in averaging 192 rushing yards per game.
While the Bears "only" ran for 180 yards in their earlier meeting against Green Bay, they are more potent offensively namely because quarterback Justin Fields has developed more confidence as a passer and because his team is utilizing him more often and more creatively as a runner.
Green Bay's Offensive Outlook
During its five-game rut, Chicago has allowed 27 points or more every team.
The Bears allowed over 30 points in four of those games.
Given the consistency with which Chicago yields high scoring outputs, it surprises me that the total is as low as it is -- especially given the fact that also Green Bay struggles defensively.
Chicago's run defense has also struggled, especially since its top players in the front seven departed for other teams.
Green Bay's running backs, especially healthy, have a propitious matchup here, and their success will open up the favored play-action for Aaron Rodgers.
Best Bet: Titans/Eagles under 44 at -110 & Bears/Packers over 44.5 at -110 at +261 odds with BetOnline
Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia
Philadelphia's Reliance on Running the Ball
On offense, the Eagles are one of the NFL's most run-reliant teams.
They own the third-highest run-play percentage.
Philadelphia is built to focus on running the ball.
Their quarterback is a dual-threat guy for whom the team will call designed running plays, or he'll gladly scramble.
Moreover, they try to be well-stocked with multiple healthy running backs.
These facts don't entail, of course, that the Eagle rush attack will always succeed in a given game.
But it is evident that the success of Philadelphia's offense will largely depend on that of its ground game.
Titan Run Defense
One may be inclined to bet the "over" after seeing Philadelphia light up its opponent on primetime television.
But the difference in run defense quality between Green Bay, which was Philadelphia's last opponent, and Tennessee is immense.
Whereas the Packer run defense ranks 31st, Tennessee's ranks third.
The Titans are, therefore, just the opponent that run-heavy Philadelphia does not want to face.
Titan Defense vs. Mobile Quarterbacks
While the Titan run defense ranks as strongly as it does primarily because of its success against opposing running backs, Tennessee also performs solidly against mobile quarterbacks.
They've faced two so far: Giant Daniel Jones and Bill Josh Allen.
Against Tennessee, Jones ran for 25 yards and Allen ran for 10 yards.
In other words, the Titan defense limited each quarterback's rushing production to a relatively low output.
Titan Offense's Problems
If one likes the Titan defense, then one must be inclined to bet the "under" because Tennessee's offense is unreliable.
Overall, Tennessee ranks 26thin scoring offense, averaging 19 points per game.
Moreover, the Titans rank 29thin total offense.
Tennessee has a significant issue with being productive offensively.
Primarily, the Titans try to be productive by relying on their star running back.
But even his success -- in case he does have a good performance, which has been rare for him this season -- does amount to a tremendous rushing output, Tennessee still struggles to score.
For example, they ran for 314 yards in Houston but mustered 17 points.
Eagle Run Defense
Philadelphia may be thought to be handicapped by starting backup safety Reed Blankenship -- the starter, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, is listed as 'out indefinitely.'
But Blankenship is well-known for his secure tackling.
Philadelphia will anyhow have an easy time against a Titan rush attack that is held back by its offensive line play -- PFF grades show Titan offensive linemen to be struggling significantly.
The Eagles will do to Derrick Henry what they already did to Colt star running back Jonathan Taylor in their 17-16 win in Indianapolis.
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Soldier Field in Chicago
Packer Run Defense
Green Bay has one of the NFL's worst run defenses.
Their struggles in this respect were conspicuous in their most recent game, a primetime one in which the Eagles amassed 363 rushing yards en route to a 40-point scoring output.
Now, despite the absurdly high rush yardage yielded, one might be disposed to forgive Green Bay for struggling against the Eagles because the Eagles possess one of the most prolific rush attacks.
But the Packers reliably struggle against the run even against less prolific offenses and even when they know that they should expect the run.
For example, they faced a Patriot offense quarterbacked by a third-stringer.
Despite it surely being obvious that they wanted to rely primarily on their running backs, the Patriots amassed 167 rushing yards.
Many more examples attest to the low quality of Green Bay's run defense, which is explained partly by scheme-related issues and partly by personnel.
De'Vondre Campbell has been slacking off, missing lots of tackles, after signing a sweet offseason deal.
Fellow linebacker Quay Walker is still in learning mode while other Packer defenders suffer for lacking his speed and athleticism.
Chicago Rush Attack
While the Packer run defense has struggled to limit even lackluster rush attacks like New England's 23rd-ranked one, the Bear rush attack is anything but lackluster.
In fact, Chicago ranks number one, by far, in averaging 192 rushing yards per game.
While the Bears "only" ran for 180 yards in their earlier meeting against Green Bay, they are more potent offensively namely because quarterback Justin Fields has developed more confidence as a passer and because his team is utilizing him more often and more creatively as a runner.
Green Bay's Offensive Outlook
During its five-game rut, Chicago has allowed 27 points or more every team.
The Bears allowed over 30 points in four of those games.
Given the consistency with which Chicago yields high scoring outputs, it surprises me that the total is as low as it is -- especially given the fact that also Green Bay struggles defensively.
Chicago's run defense has also struggled, especially since its top players in the front seven departed for other teams.
Green Bay's running backs, especially healthy, have a propitious matchup here, and their success will open up the favored play-action for Aaron Rodgers.
Best Bet: Titans/Eagles under 44 at -110 & Bears/Packers over 44.5 at -110 at +261 odds with BetOnline
