NFL Parlay for Sunday’s Games at 271 Odds
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 13, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida
History & Trend
Oddsmakers have published an absurdly high over/under for this game.
This total is largely a product of the 41-35 game that Tennessee participated in last week. This game is fresh in bettors’ minds. So many will succumb to temptation and take the “over.”
But history is one thing that suggests we should do otherwise. In (only) two other Jacksonville games has the over/under been 53 or higher. The “under” is 2-0 so far in those games.
Titan Ground Game
When a total is as high as it is — currently 53 at most top sportsbooks — the “over” can hit when either team produces quick scores. Quick scores are crucial for an “over” because they produce points and because they leave plenty of time left for more points to be scored.
Tennessee, though, owns the fourth-highest run play percentage.
Now, people may be misled into thinking this is a good thing for the Titan point total. Derrick Henry, after all, has been famous for his previous performances against the Jaguar defense.
In assessing Henry, we need to stay objective. Yes, he once ran for 238 yards against the Jaguars. But in that period, the Jaguars had checked out mentally. They had finally won a game the week before and so entered Nashville with blatant indifference.
Right now, though, the Jaguars are competing hard. They are taking favored teams like Minnesota and even Green Bay down to the wire.
Even with that one monumental performance, Henry’s favorite opponent to feast upon is not Jacksonville.
This year’s Jaguar defense ranks middle-of-the-road in run defense. Henry will prolong drives, but he won’t gash the Jaguar defense as he once did previously.
With a strong dose of Henry, the clock will be rolling.
Mike Glennon
Public perception of Tennessee’s defense is super low after it conceded 41 points to Baker Mayfield-led Cleveland.
While Tennessee’s bad defense elevates the current over/under, Mike Glennon’s style will help keep this game under.
Glennon has always been known as a king of check-down passes. Right now, he’s averaging just 6.7 YPA.
Again, with a high total we want quick scores. But Glennon will not provide us with these.
Instead, he prefers to grind out possessions by targeting especially tight ends and running backs. In his last game, tight end Tyler Eifert and running back James Robinson caught the most passes for Jacksonville.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, December 13, 2020 at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) at Bills Stadium in Orchard Park, New York
Josh Allen
For Sunday’s matchup, I dislike Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen for two reasons.
One, he does not show up in big games, against strong opponents.
So two of his very worst games in terms of passer rating came against Chief and Titan squads that have great win-loss records.
At 11-1, Pittsburgh, too, is a strong opponent and this is a big game.
Perhaps more importantly is, secondly, the fact that the Steelers excel against mobile quarterbacks.
The Steelers have held Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson to what was, for him, a well below-average rushing output.
Likewise, they limited Giant quarterback Daniel Jones to 22 rushing yards and a YPC number well below his season average.
Overall, Pittsburgh owns one of the NFL’s top pass defenses as measured by opposing pass yards per game.
A number of Steeler defensive backs contribute to the team’s pass defense ranking by allowing a low completion rate or low passer rating when targeted.
The variety of strong personnel available to Pittsburgh’s pass defense is important because Buffalo wants to try to spread out opponents by lining up multiple wide receivers.
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
Buffalo has struggled with its pass defense. It currently ranks 20th in the category, as measured by opposing pass yards per game.
Injuries have helped prevent the Buffalo back seven from gelling. There is also a tremendous drop-off in ability after the team’s top cornerback. This drop-off is measured by an increase by well over 20 in passer rating when targeted.
Pittsburgh matches up well with the Bills since it owns one of the nation’s highest pass play percentages and plenty of variety at wide receiver with a quarterback able to exploit that variety.
This variety is evident in the fact that three different Steeler wide receivers have accrued 600 receiving yards.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is enjoying his highest passer rating since 2014 because he has so many viable targets.
Expect the Steelers to keep passing and to keep passing well against Buffalo’s defense.
Best Bet: Parlay Jaguars/Titans Under 53 at -108 & Steelers +2.5 at -108 at +271 Odds with Heritage
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 13, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida
History & Trend
Oddsmakers have published an absurdly high over/under for this game.
This total is largely a product of the 41-35 game that Tennessee participated in last week. This game is fresh in bettors’ minds. So many will succumb to temptation and take the “over.”
But history is one thing that suggests we should do otherwise. In (only) two other Jacksonville games has the over/under been 53 or higher. The “under” is 2-0 so far in those games.
Titan Ground Game
When a total is as high as it is — currently 53 at most top sportsbooks — the “over” can hit when either team produces quick scores. Quick scores are crucial for an “over” because they produce points and because they leave plenty of time left for more points to be scored.
Tennessee, though, owns the fourth-highest run play percentage.
Now, people may be misled into thinking this is a good thing for the Titan point total. Derrick Henry, after all, has been famous for his previous performances against the Jaguar defense.
In assessing Henry, we need to stay objective. Yes, he once ran for 238 yards against the Jaguars. But in that period, the Jaguars had checked out mentally. They had finally won a game the week before and so entered Nashville with blatant indifference.
Right now, though, the Jaguars are competing hard. They are taking favored teams like Minnesota and even Green Bay down to the wire.
Even with that one monumental performance, Henry’s favorite opponent to feast upon is not Jacksonville.
This year’s Jaguar defense ranks middle-of-the-road in run defense. Henry will prolong drives, but he won’t gash the Jaguar defense as he once did previously.
With a strong dose of Henry, the clock will be rolling.
Mike Glennon
Public perception of Tennessee’s defense is super low after it conceded 41 points to Baker Mayfield-led Cleveland.
While Tennessee’s bad defense elevates the current over/under, Mike Glennon’s style will help keep this game under.
Glennon has always been known as a king of check-down passes. Right now, he’s averaging just 6.7 YPA.
Again, with a high total we want quick scores. But Glennon will not provide us with these.
Instead, he prefers to grind out possessions by targeting especially tight ends and running backs. In his last game, tight end Tyler Eifert and running back James Robinson caught the most passes for Jacksonville.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, December 13, 2020 at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) at Bills Stadium in Orchard Park, New York
Josh Allen
For Sunday’s matchup, I dislike Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen for two reasons.
One, he does not show up in big games, against strong opponents.
So two of his very worst games in terms of passer rating came against Chief and Titan squads that have great win-loss records.
At 11-1, Pittsburgh, too, is a strong opponent and this is a big game.
Perhaps more importantly is, secondly, the fact that the Steelers excel against mobile quarterbacks.
The Steelers have held Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson to what was, for him, a well below-average rushing output.
Likewise, they limited Giant quarterback Daniel Jones to 22 rushing yards and a YPC number well below his season average.
Overall, Pittsburgh owns one of the NFL’s top pass defenses as measured by opposing pass yards per game.
A number of Steeler defensive backs contribute to the team’s pass defense ranking by allowing a low completion rate or low passer rating when targeted.
The variety of strong personnel available to Pittsburgh’s pass defense is important because Buffalo wants to try to spread out opponents by lining up multiple wide receivers.
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
Buffalo has struggled with its pass defense. It currently ranks 20th in the category, as measured by opposing pass yards per game.
Injuries have helped prevent the Buffalo back seven from gelling. There is also a tremendous drop-off in ability after the team’s top cornerback. This drop-off is measured by an increase by well over 20 in passer rating when targeted.
Pittsburgh matches up well with the Bills since it owns one of the nation’s highest pass play percentages and plenty of variety at wide receiver with a quarterback able to exploit that variety.
This variety is evident in the fact that three different Steeler wide receivers have accrued 600 receiving yards.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is enjoying his highest passer rating since 2014 because he has so many viable targets.
Expect the Steelers to keep passing and to keep passing well against Buffalo’s defense.
Best Bet: Parlay Jaguars/Titans Under 53 at -108 & Steelers +2.5 at -108 at +271 Odds with Heritage
