Alright, let's break this down. These are initial leans, so my thoughts may change on them, but this is what I'll be looking for:
Utah - Would like at -5 or less. Maybe wishful thinking, but this is an excellent bowl team and I love how they finished the season. Tough loss to BYU, but they should've won that game. Navy is great in bowls as well and it's tough to bet against them, but I think they may have met their match this year as I don't expect the Utes to be disinterested in this one.
Florida Atlantic - Would like at +6 or more. Simply put, C-USA plays no defense, and Memphis is no exception. They've won 5 of 6, but beating USM is the only win worth noting. I like how FAU's offense has been playing coming into this one, scoring 30+ in their last 5 conference games and putting up 20 on the Gators. I see an outright win in what is also a big coaching mismatch.
BYU - Would like at -3 or less. UCLA sucks in bowls, and don't see any reason why they would get up for this one. They've been extremely inconsistent this year and it seems the pattern is they play well in big games (minus USC) and struggle in games that don't hold much significance. I hardly see them looking at this as a big test despite the Cougars having an excellent team this year. Definitely reminds me of the Oregon/BYU matchup last year.
Cincinnati - Would like at -14 or less. They should beat the shit out of this team, and I really like having Kelly as the sidelines as I think he'll do an excellent job preparing them. Disappointing bowl game, but considering they don't go to many bowls, I hardly see them taking it lightly.
Central Michigan - Would like at +8 or more. This is an excellent spot for the Chippewas; why the hell would Purdue wanna play this team, who they've already killed, again? CMU has done a complete 180 since that September ass-whipping and they'll be pumped for a shot at a rematch in Detroit. Could see an outright victory here.
Penn State - Would like at -5 or less. Probably won't see that, but I think PSU pounds A&M here as the Aggies pretty much made their season beating UT to end the regular season. Anyone remember that Holiday Bowl last year? They were embarrassed by a Cal team who was playing bad football coming in. The Nittany Lions should be able to stop them on the ground and I think their mediocre offense can put up plenty on the soft A&M D.
Mississippi State - Would like at -6 or less. Really love what this team is doing right now, and I highly doubt they lose their bowl game despite playing a tough UCF team. They will be pumped to play in this one, and should have a clear majority of the fans in Memphis, being so close.
Alabama - Would like at -4 or less. They're playing horrible, but now Saban has a month to prepare against an inferior coach and opponent. Colorado will be excited about this one no doubt, but do you really think the Tide drop two consecutive Independence Bowls to mediocre Big 12 teams?
Fresno State - Would like at +4 or more. Probably the best play on the board. Remember two games: Fresno playing UVA in this bowl a few years ago, and GT playing Utah in the Emerald Bowl two years ago. Now put those two situations together. GT absolutely doesn't wanna be here, and Fresno will be pumped. FSU is playing very well coming in and GT has pretty much fallen off the map. Also, you'll have Boise fans there supporting the WAC.
Air Force - Would like at +7 or more. Love this team. They're rolling coming in and similar to Navy, are very disciplined and won't get rolled in this game. California has completely fallen apart and is now going to play this early game for them (9:30 PST) in Fort Worth. I don't think they'll rebound for an excellent bowl performance this time around.
Virginia - Would like at +5 or more. I just think the Cavs get it done in this bowl game as they have quietly put together a great season. Being in the Gator Bowl doesn't help TTU as the surface will be pretty bad and doesn't help their spread offense, which is best on turf. Leach is pretty damn tough in bowl games, but I just get the sense Groh and Co. have a solid outing here and possibly pull off the upset.
Missouri - Would like at -4 or less. I've heard rumors about McFadden and even Jones being academically ineligible for this game. Maybe I've heard wrong, but I'm almost willing to eat the juice on this game to take the chance of getting this line early before that is announced. If I grab it around 3-4 and it is later announced McFadden/Jones won't be playing, I'm sitting there with an unbelievable number.
Wisconsin - Would like at +1 or more. Along with Fresno, this is one of the best plays on the board. A great bowl team under Alvarez which carried over last year in that win over Arkansas, and they'll be playing a terrible bowl team in UT. The Vols gotta go back to the Outback after playing there last year and getting their hearts broken in Atlanta against LSU. They won't want to be in this game, while the Badgers should get up for it. They've quietly finished the season very well.
Ohio State - Would like at +6 or more. Like I said above, I think they are actually the better team despite being less talented. LSU has been very unimpressive since losing to UK, and I think they could struggle here as there is a big coaching advantage and OSU has plenty to prove after that debacle last year. I don't see LSU's offense doing much of anything against that defense, who has been unbelievable for the most part this year. This Buckeye team is definitely not better than last year's edition, but they're in a favorable position here.
