time to post week 5 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Virginia +7

Strongly considering shutting it down for the season. Time vs hourly earn was tough to warrant at 56% ... if I am gonna lose then just forget it. Travelling today but will get everything cleaned up later.
 
leaning hard towards vagina (er, virginia) too...but then again, who isn't. ;)

seriously, like the play. and more importantly, i understand what you're saying. it's very hard to stick to your guns (continuing to put in all the time/energy/dedication it takes) when things go sideways, and make you question wtf is going on.
can't tell you what to do, one way or the other...that's totally up to you, and how you feel. just saying that i get it, and have been there (too many times).

since i know you love this, VK, here you go... :shake::shake:
a double, VK-shake.
 
Having a similar season in NCAA VK but still feel like I'm seeing things clearly and have gotten some tough breaks. I've lost more plays by one point already this season than I have in the last two seasons combined. Hope things turn around for you, and thanks for continuing to post your take on things.
 
take a break if you need to. don't say season because that's so hard to stick with. give it a few weeks to watch games without running numbers like crazy and sometimes i feel that can help get your feel back. GL VK. good cappers lose too, and yep sometimes its just not worth it
 
My problem is that when I go back to find the mistake on games with huge moves against me ... I can't find it. And the moves did not just win... they were correct. Yet, I cannot figure out how they knew. In a normal bad run, it is my concerns with the game coming to fruition a lot ( like utsa backdooring okie lite for instance ) .... but this year it is just being dead wrong about how the game plays out. My pace predictions on totals have been insanely bad. Last week I only had one really good play that lost ( bsu fsu 2h under ) and the rest deserved to lose. No unlucky breaks .. just bad handicapping. Spent time running numbers again but not finding much there either. I know all about fluctuation and this certainly isn't some crazy bad run but as someone who watches and handicaps, what I am seeing on gameday is not matching up with what I am handicapping the game as. That is why I am concerned. Also ran bad in baseball for the first time ever so I am a little frustrated with sports investing right now. Beating the close sure ain't helping me much ( not that I did well at that last week either ).
 
It isn't like I am looking at the game and going .."Oh wow ... Oklahoma is just minus 3 to ND... ND sucks". ... I have put a ton of time into getting my numbers right, evalutating teams personnel and how it translates to the system they run, the matchups for the given week, the situations, the weather gameday ( when I can ) , etc etc etc ..... yet throwing darts would be better right now. Still, going back to my thread a few weeks ago .. beating the close as well as ever through one month of the season so that should give me confidence to continue on and I enjoy it so I would hate to stop .... but like I said .. the hourly earn at 56% is not really worth it.. so if I lose or am breaking even then I just cannot waste the time on the capping. I am primarily about the money. Then the money. Then the money. Then my love of the game coupled with the puzzle of line creation and getting the best number I can.
 
In all honesty, I'm nowhere near the handicapper you are. I don't take the time or have the knowledge to do so, but I have noticed that the past few years that the predictability of outcomes has gotten harder both in college and pros. Not sure if it is the evolution of passing/qb or what, but it has gotten very difficult.
 
VK I have a lot of respect for you and have gotten tons of information from you for x years now. So please bear with me and don't take this the wrong way.
1. Not knowing how you manage your bankroll, I will suggest as I have in the past that you should play MORE games. I haven't kept track, but I suspect that your 'leans' have been profitable - quite.
2. Your primary focus seems to be to bet on the opening and try to beat the closing line. And you are good at it. And there is no doubt that the better line will always do better than the inferior line over a period of time. But picking the winning side or total is much more important than beating the line by 15-20 points a week.
3. So take a week or two and hold off on your plays. Observe line moves if that is most important to you. But instead of committing yourself so damn early, take a step back and see what your fellow forum members think about games. Enjoy the benefit of their knowledge and expertise. Broaden the number of games that are in your weekly potential. You might be surprised. In just the last two weeks, Schrute posted two games that I never considered - - in one game I had never even heard of his choice, a 35 1/2 pt dog. Both of these games were winners.
4. Jump into the dialog as a responder rather than an initiator. Challenge the choices of some of the better cappers on here. At this point, you know who they are. Evaluate their responses and then make a decision. Give betting later in the week a try. You will benefit from others opinions rather than walking down the one-way street and going it all by yourself.
5. Your knowledge is immense and impressive. You have a bunch of fans on here who are almost in awe of that knowledge and your command of rosters etc. ( You know more OLs than I do QBs) Stick with it and let some others help YOU out. WE owe it to you.
6. GL from the bull.
 
What happened in the Arky St game VK.. Not getting on you for losing, just want to understand why they shit the bed so bad?

Is memphis good? GL this week man.

I have a total I won't be able to wager enough on.
 
Hang in there VK. We know that u havent forgotten how to capp football, so its just a short dry spell. It will pass!!
We are all rooting for U pardner.

'an_horse''an_horse''an_horse'
 
I've always considered myself a gambler rather than a handicapper, so I'm not here to give you advice.

I started reading your shit on the fading las vegas site. When you drop the knowledge it is best I've seen.

Don't know exactly how you put together your 'base', but I'm sure you adjust it weekly based on the results. With as good as a reference point you enter the season with start with, even after some bad reads early on, I suspect once everything catches up in terms of upgrading and decreasing your base valuations, sooner rather than later, it has to straighten out for you.
 
Like all cappers, we are better when brash and confident. Get the swagger back kid. Tho I don't agree the beat the close style is the end all capping strategy, i do agree you are very good at it, but all styles have variance my man. I suspect the time to tail Kyle is right now. Gl
 
VK - You are an extremely talented hard working handicapper going through a tough spell. No question about your knowledge and work ethic. I think you just have to remain patient and things will turn for the better. I think your methodology and process is proven over the years, and would encourage you not to be so quick to change anything. Some of these smaller conferences are definitely more unpredictable and may not be prove to be as efficient overall in the handicapping process. My personal opinion is stick to your guns here and I think things will improve for the better. BOL
 
Bump for the one and only, VK.

Always been a fan even if I wasn't much help in helping get a web site built.

Stick with it, gotta play the game to win it.
 
....nah, you guys are all blowing smoke up his ass. Shut it down Kyle! You've lost your way. Back in your 20s and 30s, you were a good capper and the luck would follow you where ever you went. Time is catching up to all of us, but you're not immune to time, my friend!
























please know I'm just kidding. You're a valuable tool to all of us VK.
J
 
Hehe .. will get to thanking everyone for encouraging words later( or blame them ), responding to posts and so on .... completely forgot about Fading Las Vegas site. Fading Las Vegas is what helped me find the adjustedstats.com site which has been a great aide in my handicapping and which I recommend to others. That seems like ages ago. Gonna post some plays .. I would be careful .. .. I am using the buckeyeburritos approach and firing a wide spray shotgun..... and hope that it hits more targets than it misses

Houston/utsa over 64
Utah state/sjsu over 62
ecu/unc over 61

Illinois -25
smu +19
utep +14 -113
utep/csu over 52
cal/Oregon under 84
ASU -3 -120
usc/asu under 49.5
Florida -11.5
navy/wku over 57.5
unlv/unm under 54
Arizona/Washington over 62
vols/uab over 56
Houston -2

sorry short on time..incidentally utep team total over, Houston team total over and uab team total over look good to me.
 
kyle, never seen that adjustedstats site before, looks interesting. Would love to learn how you are able to use it to discern certain info. Maybe I'll get more time to look into it next week and hit you up when i think i've stumbled across something...

GL this week, against you on none and with you on oregon un (hold your nose jobber), florida, houston....

:shake:
 
using the buckeyeburritos approach and firing a wide spray shotgun.

now you know I love that ... best of luck. you are due for some. :cheers:
 
VK said:
My problem is that when I go back to find the mistake on games with huge moves against me ... I can't find it. And the moves did not just win... they were correct. Yet, I cannot figure out how they knew. In a normal bad run, it is my concerns with the game coming to fruition a lot ( like utsa backdooring okie lite for instance ) .... but this year it is just being dead wrong about how the game plays out. My pace predictions on totals have been insanely bad. Last week I only had one really good play that lost ( bsu fsu 2h under ) and the rest deserved to lose. No unlucky breaks .. just bad handicapping. Spent time running numbers again but not finding much there either. I know all about fluctuation and this certainly isn't some crazy bad run but as someone who watches and handicaps, what I am seeing on gameday is not matching up with what I am handicapping the game as. That is why I am concerned. Also ran bad in baseball for the first time ever so I am a little frustrated with sports investing right now. Beating the close sure ain't helping me much ( not that I did well at that last week either ).
Click to expand...

The smartest that bey with me are doing their balls this year so far. The windening talent gap is making these non-conference games hard to line up. It doens't help when favs go something like 54-2 SU last week.

Only a third of the way through the season. Tide will turn
 
I think Bull has some real solid advice. Obviously re-evaluating your system is huge. I run into this EVERY NBA season. However, the one thing that keeps me in the game in my bankroll management. It dictates my units of play. When I'm losing my bet per game shrinks, when I'm winning it rises, but IT KEEPS ME IN THE GAME, and that's what seperates the guys that have been around here since 06 to the guys that come and go.

Keep bangin.
 
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[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]current
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[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]diff
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]rdiff
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]key +/-
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]Note
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]Houston/utsa over 64
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]64
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]n/a
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]Utah state/sjsu over 62
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]62
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]n/a
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]ecu/unc over 61
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]60
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-1
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-1
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]n/a
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]uva +7
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]5.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]+
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent"]Illinois -25
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-27.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]n/a
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent"]smu +19
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-17.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]n/a
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]utep +14 -113
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]13.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]n/a
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-0.03
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]utep/csu over 52
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]51.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-0.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]n/a
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]cal/Oregon under 84
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]80
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]8.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]n/a
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]weather
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]ASU -3 -120
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-3.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]9.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]+
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]10 cents from 3.5 to 3 adv
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]usc/asu under 49.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]49.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]9.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]n/a
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]Florida -11.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]10.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-1
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]8.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]-
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]navy/wku over 57.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]60.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]n/a
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]unlv/unm under 54
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]54
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]n/a
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 3"]Arizona/Washington over 62
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]60
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-2
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]9.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]n/a
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]weather
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]vols/uab over 56
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]57.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]n/a
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Houston -2
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-2
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]n/a
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


32-40, 9-8, 41-48
 
Last edited:
Another loser last night. At least it was well capped so some confidence from that. Managed to do well vs close despite not posting until late week ( ahead of billy in a few I believe ). good luck today. Apologies for crappy threads this year.

zippychippy: not forgotten
 
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