time to post week 11 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
79-83-2

128 ecu -14
140 Minnesota -1.5
142 Maryland -6
156 texas tech -3 ( grats ksu backers )
157 byu +7
181 miss state +18
195 Houston +11.5
201 sdsu +7
121 wku -5.5
130 Indiana -9.5
177 usc -17
notre dame -3 -120
ohio/buff over 55.5
bg/miaoh und 48.5
afa/unm under 60
texas/wvu und 56
asu/Utah ov 64
 miss st /tamu ov 64
Houston/ucf ov 64
sdsu/sjsu und 56
2h neb/mich over 24
bg/mia oh 2h under 23.5
ohio/buff 2h over 24
Oregon 2h -7 -120
Oregon/Stanford 2h over 27.5
2h wku -3 -105 Large
2h cuse/terps under 26.5


14-13 large bet helps for a change. 93-96-2 sigh
​

​


like every other week this year, probably lack time to talk too much. gl all​
 
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goddamn you were right about texas tech's defense getting worse every week. don't know why i thought they would bounce back against the run. their d-line is still fighting at cruiser weight. W/you on houston and the pirates. GL this week.
 
Elbutre88 said:
goddamn you were right about texas tech's defense getting worse every week. don't know why i thought they would bounce back against the run. their d-line is still fighting at cruiser weight. W/you on houston and the pirates. GL this week.
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Houston probably should have lost last week but benefitted from two terrible calls at key moments. Hopefully more motivated here. Over # should be interesting there.
 
Elbutre88 said:
goddamn you were right about texas tech's defense getting worse every week. don't know why i thought they would bounce back against the run. their d-line is still fighting at cruiser weight. W/you on houston and the pirates. GL this week.
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The two dimensional attack of okst is what made it tough. Their matchup is better against one dimensional ksu. Which makes the line of the game puzzling to me. Basically saying ksu is about = to osu with this line. I don't see it and they haven't played a road game in about a month ... they caught both texas and okst at perfect times and couldn't win either, and caught Baylor in first road test so even their decent showings in losses are asterisks for me. No doubt ksu coach out game plans young dude at TT but not sure it is enough to get tech to lose consecutive home games.
 
i dunno. leanin kstate here, and i understand this kind of line is because of kstate's run game. this is an early game on saturday, and dr bill is gonna have a damn good gameplan. Will the red raiders sling the rock around against this kstate defense? baylor struggled early, but like you said, 1st road game. think it's a reasonable line here, just lookin at the lack of depth on the d-line. these guys are not deep at all. and if kstate can sustain long drives with this running game, it might be a long day in lubbock. kerry hyder is by far their best player on that line, but he's one man.

gotta wonder if texas tech will get a big enough lead to make the wildcats throw the ball, but if it's close, think the 3rd and 4th quarter could be deadly for this d line. they're just not that deep. still leanin. gl either way, vk.
 
futures update

Auburn Under 7 -155 8-1. Already a loser with several games left. I didn't see it coming and still o not believe in their football team... which has cost me a fortune. Obviously they are better than I expected and they have been very fortunate,....bet over rmaining sched meaningless toward future.

Illinois under 4.5 -175 3-5 at Indiana this week. Still have purdue on the schedule. ohio state still on sched ... seas finale at NW. If Indiana beats them this week, winning the bet becomes the favorite.

Indiana under 6.5 -125 3-5 would have to win all 4 including roadies at wiscy and tosu.

Maryland over 6 -125 5-3 td fave home to cuse off a bye. hopefully get to push this week.

navy over 5.5 -170 4-4, playing better than record and remaining sched easy. hard to imagine this team not bowling if Reynolds stays healthy.

northwestern under 7 -125 4-5 would have to beat both Michigan schools and Illinois in finale to push. They might be an underdog to go bowling. Amazing.

California under 4.5 even 1-8 a winner and a very good bet

ohio over 6.5 -290 6-2 , at buff at bg vs kent st vs umass... hard to imagine 0-4 outta that.

pitt under 6.5 -120 4-4. under a full score dog at home this week to irish. vs unc, at cuse, vs Miami following .. obviously schedule is tough. still think they find 6 wins somehow.

ball state over 7 -145 8-1 winner

utep over 3.5 -180 1-7 hard to believe they didn't beat texas A&M last week. at north texas, home to fiu, at Tulane, at mtsu remains. Wow was their schedule easy this year. Struggling to find a team that played a softer schedule. I like their chances to beat fiu on senior day at home so if they can find a way at unt ( not happening ) or at Tulane then bet would still have a shot in finale... but this looks done. Just an awful football team and a bad job year 1 for new coach.
 
Elbutre88 said:
i dunno. leanin kstate here, and i understand this kind of line is because of kstate's run game. this is an early game on saturday, and dr bill is gonna have a damn good gameplan. Will the red raiders sling the rock around against this kstate defense? baylor struggled early, but like you said, 1st road game. think it's a reasonable line here, just lookin at the lack of depth on the d-line. these guys are not deep at all. and if kstate can sustain long drives with this running game, it might be a long day in lubbock. kerry hyder is by far their best player on that line, but he's one man.

gotta wonder if texas tech will get a big enough lead to make the wildcats throw the ball, but if it's close, think the 3rd and 4th quarter could be deadly for this d line. they're just not that deep. still leanin. gl either way, vk.
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thought the pass was available all game for Baylor and briles forced the run and mentioned that after that game concluded ( no action ). TT will get theirs and rate to have better 3rd down numbers in the game imo. gl if you take ksu .. think I am 1-8 or so last 9 times I have faded them and I give them a lot of credit as overachievers and winners.
 
adds

121 wku -5.5
130 Indiana -9.5
177 usc -17


all were played yesterday fwiw not sure 5.5 still available on wku and wouldn't lay 6.5. I never win a wku bet.
 
Elaborate if you have a second on Miss St....no doubt they can move it against A&M just worried about them giving up 50+.


Thanks!


Also thoughts on VT....feels like a big letdown for the Canes.
 
early totals

ohio/buff over 55.5
bg/miaoh und 48.5
afa/unm under 60
texas/wvu und 56
asu/Utah ov 64
miss st /tamu ov 64
Houston/ucf ov 64
sdsu/sjsu und 56
 
aplous said:
Elaborate if you have a second on Miss St....no doubt they can move it against A&M just worried about them giving up 50+.


Thanks!


Also thoughts on VT....feels like a big letdown for the Canes.
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last year box, senior day and jff last home game and already having the points and the over keeps m off but it looks like msu can run all day on tamu and that makes for a high scoring volatile game that could end up similar to the aub game. at lsu and at mizz on deck so not sure how up tamu can really be here while already bowl eligible and not playing for sec championship. miss st needs two for bowl eligibility and rates to be more up here than following week against bammer. doubt I can get a third unit backing msu offense with two already on table
 
VK said:
thought the pass was available all game for Baylor and briles forced the run and mentioned that after that game concluded ( no action ). TT will get theirs and rate to have better 3rd down numbers in the game imo. gl if you take ksu .. think I am 1-8 or so last 9 times I have faded them and I give them a lot of credit as overachievers and winners.
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your ksu record is close to my tt record. might lay off all together. GL
 
BOL on the week VK - could you elaborate on your af/nm and sjsu/sdsu totals if you get a moment.
 
Timh said:
BOL on the week VK - could you elaborate on your af/nm and sjsu/sdsu totals if you get a moment.
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Unm afa is basically me backing at running clock timh. I will get ya some reasoning on the other shortly but I quite like it.
 
I have to say, you and I usually think a lot alike on totals.. but I really like the SJSU/SDSU over. Also like NM/Air Force over- seems like both teams run a bunch, but neither defense can stop the run. Good grab on ECU -14, I should have grabbed that one.. Good luck this week VK
 
Reds4 said:
I have to say, you and I usually think a lot alike on totals.. but I really like the SJSU/SDSU over. Also like NM/Air Force over- seems like both teams run a bunch, but neither defense can stop the run. Good grab on ECU -14, I should have grabbed that one.. Good luck this week VK
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Reds/Kyle - That was why I was asking because my numbers there both point to overs. BOL opened AF total at 64.5 and then CRIS followed later with 60.5. BOL opened SDST total at 60 and it got moved down and then CRIS opened at 56. A couple of the numbers I looked at for AF were in high 60's and low 70's and both defenses are so poor at stopping the run but like Kyle said he is backing a continuous running clock because both teams will primarily run the ball the entire gm. Both SDST and SJST have weak pass defenses, and you would think in particular that Fales could take advtg against the Aztecs. I was thinking low to mid 60's in that gm.
 
Timh said:
Reds/Kyle - That was why I was asking because my numbers there both point to overs. BOL opened AF total at 64.5 and then CRIS followed later with 60.5. BOL opened SDST total at 60 and it got moved down and then CRIS opened at 56. A couple of the numbers I looked at for AF were in high 60's and low 70's and both defenses are so poor at stopping the run but like Kyle said he is backing a continuous running clock because both teams will primarily run the ball the entire gm. Both SDST and SJST have weak pass defenses, and you would think in particular that Fales could take advtg against the Aztecs. I was thinking low to mid 60's in that gm.
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Ran another set of numbers on SJST/SDSU using pts per play for/against and plays/gm for and against and came up with 62.
 
I am sucker

Oregon -7 -120 2h
Oregon/Stanford over 27.5 2h

to be honest the first half reeks of value on Stanford +7 2h ..... but I just think we see a different Oregon offense next half. Really just have no basis for it other than gut feeling.
 
VK said:
I am sucker

Oregon -7 -120 2h
Oregon/Stanford over 27.5 2h

to be honest the first half reeks of value on Stanford +7 2h ..... but I just think we see a different Oregon offense next half. Really just have no basis for it other than gut feeling.
Click to expand...

Paid off. Nice work.
 
Don't have time to get into a ton of detail but thought I would try and get some of my sdsu/sjsu total feelings out there. I suppose I am giving credit to sdsu for recency and I am forgiving of their schedule a bit more than others perhaps. That Eastern Illinois loss to open they year was awful but not as bad as some think. That team is 8-1 on the year now with the one loss being an away loss at NIU where they led in the fourth quarter and racked up 577 yards of offense. And I think their schedule is a bit tougher than they are given credit for as far as offenses faced.

And obviously SDSU is better against the run than the pass but I think their bad pass D numbers are somewhat skewed by situations and if you look at the pass pass pass pass pass pass some more type teams they have faced that they actually have matched up and played well. Bolded the pass teams.

Oregon State - 377 total yards allowed to offense that averages 474 yards per game while including the sdsu game.
Ohio State - 445 total yards allowed to offense that averages 531 per game while including the sdsu game.
nmsu - 268 total yards allowed to offense that averages 378 per game while including the sdsu game.
Nevada - 570 yards allowed to offense that averages 433 per game while including the sdsu game.
afa - 319 yards allowed to offense that averages 377 per game while including the sdsu game. ( note 71 yard td pass afa )
fresno st - 341 yards allowed to offense that averages 540 per game while including the sdsu game.
unm -- 423 yards allowed to offense that averages 422 per game while including the sdsu game.


So to me when you look at the totality of the sdsu schedule you see a defense that actually clearly outperforms to avg vs the opposing offense and against the pass happy teams they seem to defend quite well comparatively. The Nevada game is a bit of an outlier and the fourth qtr of that game was kind of weird and I am not sure how I want to classify Nevada ...they blew a big lead late in that game and then won in overtime. SDSU played fresno a couple weeks ago and I consider that as good a prep game for what sjsu does offensively as one could want and sdsu performed well defensively.

Guess I am going with the idea that I am not going to worry about sjsu passing for 300+ when they rush for just 60..... and I am not completely sold they can pass for 300 here.
 
quick comment on the ohio buffalo game. I didn't think buffalo could dominate at the line of scrimmage defensively. When the first half ended, I expected adjustment from Ohio but it never really came. Buffalo continued to tons of pressure on Tettleton ( who strangely refused to run the football ) and Tettleton responded by not having patience, having bad mechanics, scrambled to the opposite side of his throwing arm a lot ... I really had a bad view of the game .... I honestly felt late 1st half that the team that abandoned the run first would have the best chance of winning ... and then buffalo went off with pounding the ball. Makes me worry some for the future bet on ohio where I had mentally cashed that already. They will be a nice fade in the bowls if you get a physical team to match up against them.
 
VK- not much similarity in our cards - a couple the same, a couple of fades, and plenty of room for both of us to win. GL
 
All of the benihana's closed due to health violations in las vegas I believe. Scheduled to re-open whenever you are back in Colorado.

Ironically, tonights AFA/UNM game went the most like I had it capped than any other weekday game. That gives you an idea of how bad the bets have been this week. I knew the total was in trouble when four of the first five drives resulted in TD's after successful fourth down conversions on each and when three +zone fumbles were all recovered by the offensive team ( 1 advanced no less ). Obviously, I expected each defense to stop the opponent at some point. The bet was the running clock and I think the # of possessions in the game sort of played out how I wanted ... just never could get off the field. I wouldn't bet that again as the lack of ability to tackle and a complete inability to release from blocks was more than the "running clock" could compete with. Just find it funny that the game lands 82 and it is the best bet of my last 7. 4-3 with bad bets makes me laugh too given the number of good bets that have lost this year.

tomorrow should be fun.. hoping one game goes the way I expect so I can pat myself on the back rather than thumb my nose at myself.
 
VK said:
All of the benihana's closed due to health violations in las vegas I believe. Scheduled to re-open whenever you are back in Colorado.
Click to expand...

That works out perfect - you can come down to the strip and we can go to Lavo. YUM! Then hit up the deepstack at the Venetian.
 
nice. netted out 1.4 units on the wku game. managed to survive the punter run for 20 leading to a td and the army offense converting 5 third downs in 1 drive for a td. offense dominated.
 
I soured on texas tech later in the week with them having absolutely nothing to play for and a Snyder coached team battling for a chance at bowling but no chance to extricate myself prior to kick with line move .. tech D continues to spiral downward. whoops. add it to the pile of bad bets this week.
 
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