RetroVK
This claim is disputed
favorites 3-2 +2.67 units
dogs 7-6 + 1.50 units
overs 0-1 -1.10 units
unders 0-2 -2.25 units
overall + 0.82 units
slow start but not horrid i guess. Be aware that while i really like my plays today , i really don't feel in the "zone" right now. Not really seeing things as clearly as i would like. So take my current thoughts with that in mind.
Two unit recommendations
Houston Astros +121
Cleveland Indians -130
One unit recommendations
philadelphia phillies +113
texas rangers/detroit tigers under 10 -110
Strong leans
Seattle/oakland under -- will be adding in morning just think i can do better than available number.
Remember this is sunday so look for those quality unders and be aware that some of these lineups will be shaken up and some bats might be resting hurting offense and likely helping defense.
Tidbit format for these writeups .....
Astros
-Big elephant in the room is wandy road woes so just get that out of the way before i show you why i like this for two units. well documented home/away dichotomy for this guy so i wont go into it much.
-A lot of past success vs the stlouis lineup as they bat just .234 off of him and have just 2 ding dongs in 111 AB. More significant is his ability to get pujols and ankiel out. They are a combined 3 of 27 off of wandy and getting htem out is a big stymie to the cards offense.
-opposite holds true for kyle lohse vs. the astros on every level. Astros bat .299 off of him in a considerable sample size and key bats Lee , pence , Rodriguez and tejada all hit him well.
- in other words the meat of the order struggles vs. wandy and excels vs. lohse.
-There is another area where these two pitchers are like night and day ……… haha that is a pun because it is their night and day splits. In 2008 lohse was 11-1 with a 2.97 era at night but was 4-5 with a 4.75 era in the day. Guess what …. Opposite is true of Wandy. Rodriguez was 4-2 in the day with a 2.54 era and had a night era of 4.11 with a 5-5 record.
-We won’t know until tomorrow for sure if anyone sits for this game like most Sundays this season but I think this game has to look more significant to the astros and therefore the cards are more likely to rest here. A Houston loss here makes them 1-5 vs. the division and behind the 8 ball early.
--wandy is 1-1 with a 2.84 era in this ballpark so he likes it here.
-situationally I like this play and outside of the road woes most things seem to line up nicely here for the astros to grab a win. Willing to take my chances with the unbalanced ledger and step in front of the fade wandy on the road trend here. Two units.
Indians
-shocked I am on this ?? I am too. This was a game where I was sort of going over the under and everything lined up for the side.
-start with the umpire … big time home umpire.
-I like it when dead bats awaken late in a game as it often translates to continuation of that in the next game. Indians finally awoke in the ninth in their 5-4 defeat.
-I like it when a team faces a really tough pitcher with his good stuff and then takes a huge step down in nastiness which is the case here with going from halladay to purcey.
-Reyes has some stats pointing his way in this game. Very good history vs. the likely hitters in the BJ lineup tomorrow. Pitched to a 2.30 era in the day last year and is 0.70 runs better day vs. night the last three years. In his start vs. Toronto last year he went 6.1 innings gave up 7 hits and 1 run while walking just 1 batter.
-purcey takes the mound for the blue jays and he was 0-1 last year vs. the Indians who went 5 for 18 off of him. That was the first time that the Indians had ever seen him so unlike reyes with the large sample size , I expect the Indians to improve their approach against purcey for this one. Purcey does have good daytime stats so be aware of that.
Phillies
-when i first saw this line I thought it was short with cook on the hill vs. park but dig a little deeper and this does not bode well for the rockies.
- park has pitched well both vs. the rockies bats and in coors field. His ability to keep the ball down and enduce ground balls plays very well in this park.
--phillies lineup is loaded with power which plays well in coors.
-phillies are brutal on right handed pitchers.
-jimmy rollins 8 of 23 , Utley 6 of 17 , howard 4 of 11 , werth 2 of 5 , stairs 3 of 3 .. You get the idea .. They have pounded cook in the past….though it should be noted that they havent seen cook since back in 2007.
-cook lasted just 2.1 innings in his first start against Arizona and was absolutely hammered.
-daytime batting avg against for cook is .297 and era is higher in the day as well. Somehow sported a pretty nice daytime record last year despite that. Cook is also a groundball pitcher so I wouldn’t expect a bunch of ding dongs in this game either.
-park daytime era was almost a run better than at night last year.
-think we have line value with park not being respected and as friend pointed out because of rockies hot start. The difference in the quality of lineups is pretty amazing.
The totals
It’s 235 am out here .. Gonna have to take my word that I like them for reasons …(m’s/a’s) --- like seattle never having seen cahill and bedard domination of Oakland hitters. How poorly I think Oakland lines up vs. lefthanded pitching. How bedard looks back into top form. How the umpire is a good under ump. How this stadium is a good under park. …… too tired and I did make an effort to share some of my thoughts however flawed they may be on why I like these games Sunday.
Good luck everyone
dogs 7-6 + 1.50 units
overs 0-1 -1.10 units
unders 0-2 -2.25 units
overall + 0.82 units
slow start but not horrid i guess. Be aware that while i really like my plays today , i really don't feel in the "zone" right now. Not really seeing things as clearly as i would like. So take my current thoughts with that in mind.
Two unit recommendations
Houston Astros +121
Cleveland Indians -130
One unit recommendations
philadelphia phillies +113
texas rangers/detroit tigers under 10 -110
Strong leans
Seattle/oakland under -- will be adding in morning just think i can do better than available number.
Remember this is sunday so look for those quality unders and be aware that some of these lineups will be shaken up and some bats might be resting hurting offense and likely helping defense.
Tidbit format for these writeups .....
Astros
-Big elephant in the room is wandy road woes so just get that out of the way before i show you why i like this for two units. well documented home/away dichotomy for this guy so i wont go into it much.
-A lot of past success vs the stlouis lineup as they bat just .234 off of him and have just 2 ding dongs in 111 AB. More significant is his ability to get pujols and ankiel out. They are a combined 3 of 27 off of wandy and getting htem out is a big stymie to the cards offense.
-opposite holds true for kyle lohse vs. the astros on every level. Astros bat .299 off of him in a considerable sample size and key bats Lee , pence , Rodriguez and tejada all hit him well.
- in other words the meat of the order struggles vs. wandy and excels vs. lohse.
-There is another area where these two pitchers are like night and day ……… haha that is a pun because it is their night and day splits. In 2008 lohse was 11-1 with a 2.97 era at night but was 4-5 with a 4.75 era in the day. Guess what …. Opposite is true of Wandy. Rodriguez was 4-2 in the day with a 2.54 era and had a night era of 4.11 with a 5-5 record.
-We won’t know until tomorrow for sure if anyone sits for this game like most Sundays this season but I think this game has to look more significant to the astros and therefore the cards are more likely to rest here. A Houston loss here makes them 1-5 vs. the division and behind the 8 ball early.
--wandy is 1-1 with a 2.84 era in this ballpark so he likes it here.
-situationally I like this play and outside of the road woes most things seem to line up nicely here for the astros to grab a win. Willing to take my chances with the unbalanced ledger and step in front of the fade wandy on the road trend here. Two units.
Indians
-shocked I am on this ?? I am too. This was a game where I was sort of going over the under and everything lined up for the side.
-start with the umpire … big time home umpire.
-I like it when dead bats awaken late in a game as it often translates to continuation of that in the next game. Indians finally awoke in the ninth in their 5-4 defeat.
-I like it when a team faces a really tough pitcher with his good stuff and then takes a huge step down in nastiness which is the case here with going from halladay to purcey.
-Reyes has some stats pointing his way in this game. Very good history vs. the likely hitters in the BJ lineup tomorrow. Pitched to a 2.30 era in the day last year and is 0.70 runs better day vs. night the last three years. In his start vs. Toronto last year he went 6.1 innings gave up 7 hits and 1 run while walking just 1 batter.
-purcey takes the mound for the blue jays and he was 0-1 last year vs. the Indians who went 5 for 18 off of him. That was the first time that the Indians had ever seen him so unlike reyes with the large sample size , I expect the Indians to improve their approach against purcey for this one. Purcey does have good daytime stats so be aware of that.
Phillies
-when i first saw this line I thought it was short with cook on the hill vs. park but dig a little deeper and this does not bode well for the rockies.
- park has pitched well both vs. the rockies bats and in coors field. His ability to keep the ball down and enduce ground balls plays very well in this park.
--phillies lineup is loaded with power which plays well in coors.
-phillies are brutal on right handed pitchers.
-jimmy rollins 8 of 23 , Utley 6 of 17 , howard 4 of 11 , werth 2 of 5 , stairs 3 of 3 .. You get the idea .. They have pounded cook in the past….though it should be noted that they havent seen cook since back in 2007.
-cook lasted just 2.1 innings in his first start against Arizona and was absolutely hammered.
-daytime batting avg against for cook is .297 and era is higher in the day as well. Somehow sported a pretty nice daytime record last year despite that. Cook is also a groundball pitcher so I wouldn’t expect a bunch of ding dongs in this game either.
-park daytime era was almost a run better than at night last year.
-think we have line value with park not being respected and as friend pointed out because of rockies hot start. The difference in the quality of lineups is pretty amazing.
The totals
It’s 235 am out here .. Gonna have to take my word that I like them for reasons …(m’s/a’s) --- like seattle never having seen cahill and bedard domination of Oakland hitters. How poorly I think Oakland lines up vs. lefthanded pitching. How bedard looks back into top form. How the umpire is a good under ump. How this stadium is a good under park. …… too tired and I did make an effort to share some of my thoughts however flawed they may be on why I like these games Sunday.
Good luck everyone
