time to post my week two card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units

That was a very rough week for me, particularly with large investments on Wisconsin and Michigan that went the wrong way. In addition, I went 0-8 on the 12PM/12:30PM games Saturday. Counting the Navy loss, that was 9 lost bets in a row (which is better than the 11 I thought it was for some reason, how is that for silver lining?). You have to work hard to lose nine bets in a row where you have put extensive time into finding what you think is the right play. Suffice it to say that it is my worst CFB day ever. Nothing is remotely close. I have had some worse days in CBB, where I had extensive volume of action but for CFB, this was the tops, or the bottoms so to speak. I really, truly, honestly, felt like quitting but with a commitment to the GN contest with two entries, and three people with a piece of me, I really don't have a choice but to handicap the rest of the season. Maybe I can cut this down to a three unit losing season or something and feel satisfied.

Do not emulate my process. I have brought this up before but look at Crimsonk for proper processes. He is doing it the right way. I have to post this caveat because I was barely over 54% lifetime heading into this year on cfb capping per my records, and that was with me doing everything right .. prepping early, working hard at it, refreshing for opening numbers at the right time, hitting wynn at open, studying what way I think the line will move, shopping for numbers, reading every article I could find for injury news, pace news, other tidbits ... and on and on and on. And so, without doing that, and with my strategy this year to make a play in just about every game (I never got my App St PSU over bet in last week) where I cannot possibly have an edge in every game, it is entirely possible, if not likely, that I am a negative EV proposition right now. I will try and keep the faith in myself, as I have little choice. And I plan on following through with my strategy (based on prior year variance bets, it would have yielded more profit than I made the other way). Tread lightly with me if you are someone who tails.

As I mentioned, I will be in the Golden Nugget contest with two entries. I believe they post those online either every friday night or saturday morning for transparency purposes to those who are in the contest. If you want an idea of my favorite sides, and the sides I bet on heaviest, that will be your avenue. For obvious reasons, I won't be posting what those are during the week so all plays will look the same. If I remember to, I will post them Saturdays. Again, tread lightly, I am not seeing it very well. Below is what I have gotten over the last couple days and what my leans, if any, are for the remainder

The Action:

Friday
Tcu -22 winner 1-0
TCU 2H -12 winner 2-0

Western Michigan at Michigan ( Michigan -26.5 ) winner 3-0
Liberty at Army (over 58.5) loser 3-1
New Mexico at Wisconsin ( Wisconsin -35, NewMexico/Wisconsin over 55) loser, winner 4-2
Georgia Tech at USF (Under 63) loser 4-3
Arizona at Houston (Houston -4) winner 5-4
Duke at Northwestern (Under 49) winner 6-4
Eastern Michigan at Purdue (Purdue -16, EMU/Purdue over 55 loser, loser 6-6
Mississippi State -9.5 winner 7-6
Nevada at Vanderbilt (Vandy -8.5) winner 8-6
Georgia State at NCSU (Under 58) winner 9-6
UCLA at Oklahoma (Oklahomo -28, tiny bit more at 29.5, under 64.5) push, tiny loss, loser 9-7
AFA at FAU (under 66.5) winner 10-7
Kansas at Central Michigan (Kansas +7) winner 11-7
Arkansas State at Alabama (Under 66.5) winner 12-7
Colorado at Nebraska (Nebraska -5) loser 12-8
Georgia at South Carolina (Over 53) winner 13-8
Buffalo at Temple (Buffalo +5) winner 14-8
North Carolina at East Carolina (North Carolina -16.5) loser 14-9
Memphis at Navy (Memphis -4.5) loser 14-10
Rutgers at Ohio State (Under 65) winner 15-10
Ball state at Notre Dame (over 62) loser 15-11
Iowa State at Iowa (under 49) winner 16-11
Umass at Georgia Southern (Umass +3, Umass/Georgia Southern over 62.5) loser, loser 16-13
App State at Charlotte (App State -14, App State/Charlotte over 53) winner winner 18-13
Maryland at Bowling Green (Terps -16, Terps/BG over 65.5) winner loser 19-14
UAB at Coastal Carolina (Coastal Carolina +10, UAB/Coastal Carolina over 55) winner winner 21-14
Wyoming at Missouri (Pending) no play 21-14
ulm at usm (usm -5.5) loser 21-15
Clemson at Texas A&M (Under 54) push 21-15
Arkansas at Colorado State (Arkansas -13) loser lol 21-16
UVA at Indiana (Over 54) loser bad bet 21-17
Kentucky at Florida (Under 49.5) winner 22-17
Fresno State at Minnesota (Minnesota -2.5) winner 23-17
FIU at Old Dominion (Under 55) winner 24=17 lucky
Utah at NIU (Utah -11) push 24-17
NMSU at Utah State (NMSU 24, NMSU / Utah State under 62) loser loser utah state scored 60 24-19
Penn State at Pittsburgh (under 55) loser 24-20
South Alabama at Oklahoma State (under 63.5) loser 24-21
Cincinnati vs Miami Ohio (Miami Oh -1) loser 24-22
Tulsa at Texas (over 60.5 - Not sure I have won on a Texas game since VY left) loser 24-23
USC at Stanford (Stanford -4) winner 25-23
Utep at Unlv (over 55.5 biggish) winner 26-23
California at BYU (BYU -3) loser 26-24
Uconn at Boise State (Uconn 31.5) loser 26-25
Michigan State at Arizona State (Arizona State +7) winner 27-25
San Jose State at Washington State (San Jose State +35, SJSU/WSU over 64) winner, loser 28-26

Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two 28-26 -0.6 units
Overall 50-55 minus 10.5 units

Talk me off Leans

Wyoming at Missouri (lean Missouri -18)
 
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Western Michigan at Michigan ( Michigan -26.5 )
Liberty at Army (Pending)
New Mexico at Wisconsin ( Wisconsin -35, NewMexico/Wisconsin over 55)
Georgia Tech at USF (Pending)
Arizona at Houston (Houston -4)
Duke at Northwestern (Under 49)
Eastern Michigan at Purdue (Purdue -16, EMU/Purdue over 55
Mississippi State -9.5
Nevada at Vanderbilt (Pending)
Georgia State at NCSU (Pending)
UCLA at Oklahoma (Oklahomo -28, tiny bit more at 29.5)
AFA at FAU (Pending)
Kansas at Central Michigan (Kansas +7)
Arkansas State at Alabama (Pending)
Colorado at Nebraska (Nebraska -5)
Georgia at South Carolina (Over 53)
Buffalo at Temple (Buffalo +5)
North Carolina at East Carolina (North Carolina -16.5)
Memphis at Navy (Memphis -4.5)
Rutgers at Ohio State (Pending)
Ball state at Notre Dame (over 62)
Iowa State at Iowa (under 49)
Umass at Georgia Southern (Umass +3, Umass/Georgia Southern over 62.5
App State at Charlotte (App State -14, App State/Charlotte over 53)
Maryland at Bowling Green (Terps -16, Terps/BG over 65.5
UAB at Coastal Carolina (Coastal Carolina +10, UAB/Coastal Carolina over 55)
Wyoming at Missouri (Pending)
Clemson at Texas A&M (Under 54)
Arkansas at Colorado State (Arkansas -13)
UVA at Indiana (Over 54)
Kentucky at Florida (Under 49.5)
Fresno State at Minnesota (Minnesota -2.5)
FIU at Old Dominion (Under 55)
Utah at NIU (Utah -11)
NMSU at Utah State (Pending)
Penn State at Pittsburgh (Pending)
South Alabama at Oklahoma State (Pending)
Cincinnati at Miami Ohio (Pending)
Tulsa at Texas (over 60.5 - Not sure I have won on a Texas game since VY left)
USC at Stanford (Stanford -4)
Utep at Unlv (over 55.5 biggish)
California at BYU (BYU -3)
Uconn at Boise State (Pending)
Michigan State at Arizona State (Arizona State +7)
San Jose State at Washington State (San Jose State +35, SJSU/WSU over 64)
 
Wisconsin and Over -- Tough to back this after what Wisconsin did last week but Incarnate word rushed for 244 yards against UNM last week, even if you take out their one really, really long TD run, they averaged 4.7 yards per carry. Wisconsin should maul them at the line of scrimmage. UNM probably got some confidence last week with their 62 point effort but it was IW and this is WI. There are some holes in the Wisconsin defense that can be exploited this year, I certainly don't think they are a top five team as they are ranked, and UNM will probably find the end zone against them but at the end of the day, I have a hard time not seeing Wisconsin hit 40 in this game and I actually think they could potentially reach the total with no help from UNM. Wisconsin was really flat emotionally last week. They played everything tight, except for Hornibrooks spiral .. that was not tight at all. 56-13 final.
 
Both teams had relatively bad first halves and then had better second halves, imo. It made more sense for that to happen to USC than to Stanford given the turnover at USC QB spot, but maybe less so, given opponent. Rocky Long put together a scheme meant to take Love out of the game. Stanford kept running Love on almost every first and 10 series of downs. Once Stanford was more willing to open it up and punish SDSU for what they were doing, Stanford was more able to move the ball with Costello throwing. USC was struggling to finish drives in the first half of their game against UNLV but found some answers second half of that game. And I realize that UNLV is much improved (I had them against USC, including a ML bet that lost) but as much as I was taking UNLV because of their improvement and what I thought might be an ability to move the ball and put up points, it was also in the shadow of expecting USC to be down the first half of this season. SDSU is a MW stud, UNLV is a perennial also ran, and it makes me far more impressed with what Stanford did to SDSU. They held the Aztecs under 300 yards of total offense and 11 first downs in that game. USC outgained UNLV by about a hundred yards and gave up 400 and the QB was not ready for primetime yet, with 12 of 27 for 97 yards which was worse than any non-option attack did against the rebels all of last year. Stanford rush defense was awful against the Trojans last year but there was the Darnold factor. I think SDSU and their style of play is a good set up game for Stanford heading into this one. UNLV rushed for over 300 yards, including some big gainers and I have to think this is where Love gets some big gainers ... and at the end of the day, I just trust Costello more than the USC QB at this point in the season. HFA is more than 3 points for this one and I will back Shaw, with the smarter team, the best play maker on the field, the team in better form and the team with the QB playing at the higher level at this moment in time.
 
In post number 1,your first 3 paragraphs are much appreciated. Well said, says bull.:shake:
 
It doesn't help with the feeling of losing bets and money with all the time spent, but I just wanted to say, you are an important member of this community and hope it turns around for you personally and also for your continued input in your threads and around the forums. So I didn't like reading you would be done after week 1 and was happy to see this week 2 thread. Maybe this is too soon, I apoligize in advance if it is, but how many times will you say you are done this year? Attempts at humor may not help, sorry.

I too like the Wisconsin Over. There are a few early in the season in the non-conference mismatch games that I see sometimes and feel like one team can get it all themselves, those are the best ones when anything the other team contributes is gravy (or insurance if team A doesn't do quite as well).

I also agree on Stanford. SDSt had guys running towards the LOS every snap in the first half. Shaw said he had never seen a team blitz so much in his head coaching career. It was nice to see Stanford be able to adapt and find another way to move the ball. Now USC is probably going to take some run stopping principles employed by SDSt, but now they are also going to try and minimize Whiteside, so Stanford needs to be thinking ahead of other matchups in the passing game that are going to present their self. I believe that they are smart enough to anticipate and plan accordingly. USC can't sell out to stop the run and double Whiteside and not be vulnerable in other areas. One thing that does concern me some here is that Chapman isn't a dangerous QB and SDSt isn't going to consistently beat you through the air. JT Daniels may not be ready to do that either, but he definitely has more skills and weapons available than Chapman and SDSt's passing game. Despite SDSt's limitations and with their run game being the focal point of their O, with Stanford knowing this, Washington still had a nice game for SDSt. Point being, Stanford is going to have to be better on D this game than they were last week, and I think most would agree there are some yet to be answered questions on their D.
 
At least once a year for the last four years. But first time after week 1. I usually skip a few weeks or close until bowls and occasionally come back the next week. It is funny. I even made a side bet with a friend about betting cfb again one year .. want to say it was last year. Easiest five or ten bucks he ever made. I can laugh at myself s--k. I think it is unlikely to be said again unless I run bad in the contest and there is no hope in it, which means I also ran bad in general. Over/Under 1.5 under -245


The Stanford D was no gem last year so not too surprising they aren't shut down this year either. Washington is pretty good I think, and Chapman stinks but he doesn't stink, stink. But USC ran it down Stanfords throat last year. I expect them to load up to stop the run and make that kid beat them and based on last week, I just don't think he can.
 
That Arizona State game caught my eye when I did my first read-through. I like you thinking on the Stanford/SC game as well.

I expect you'll bounce back this week VK.

I always check your totals. I'm not much at handicapping totals and your total picks get me to thinking.
 
122.5 to win 50 on the under!

It is certainly reasonable to doubt Daniels in the situation. His talent may not be debatable, I am not knowledgeable on freshman players really, don't follow any recruiting anything. But people sure do think he is going to be great at some point. But yeah, game 2 vs a team like Stanford...I would be surprised if he can put the game on his shoulders assuming Stanford can do better vs the run.
 
It was ugly

Let's discuss this UTEP/UNLV match, nothing says VK like this SOB....I will be on Vegas team total over (probly will for the foreseeable future) but that won't be available until midday Saturday. Are you being honored at half?
 
KJ said:
It was ugly

Let's discuss this UTEP/UNLV match, nothing says VK like this SOB....I will be on Vegas team total over (probly will for the foreseeable future) but that won't be available until midday Saturday. Are you being honored at half?
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When they engrave my name in at halftime, it will look better.
s-l1600.jpg
 
I played the over in that game pretty big but there are obvious concerns ...

1. UTEP managed 10 points against Northern Arizona and failed to reach 300 yards.
2. There were only 129 plays in that game, indicating slow utep pace (I didn't see the game yet)
3. UTEP was more efficient stopping the run and less efficient stopping the pass, UNLV likes to run.
4. Potential Hangover for UNLV who had to think they had a shot late third quarter of shocking the world.
5. Pretty significant class relief for the UNLV defense after facing USC. UTEP kids look slow normally, they may look even slower to the Rebels here.
6. Running clock
 
Adds

NMSU/Utah State under 62
Arkansas State/Alabama Under 66.5)
Rutgers/Ohio State under 65
Miami Oh -1
 
Some thoughts ... some of these thoughts may be posted elsewhere ...

North Carolina minus the pts - Obviously this team is being hurt by suspension but I thought they performed admirably after traveling across the entire nation to play at Cal last week. They shot themselves in the foot repeatedly on both sides of the ball, with untimely penalties on defense and turnovers on offense. They were out of sync on offense, really until the fourth quarter after the game was really decided (though my eyes saw UNC recover an onside kick fair and square that got stolen from them - thank goodness under). But they gave up just 3.7 yards per pass attempt and 3.3 yards per carry in the game. Their defensive line had their way with Cal. So while the offense struggled, the defense excelled. The main problem that the offense had, in my opinion from watching, was an over-reliance on WR Ratcliff-Williams (RW from here) and Elliot's desire to force it to him because he is their best weapon. The problem was that the Bears coverage guy, Bynum, is really good. He was able to limit RW most of the game. Then in the fourth qtr, unc started running with the QB some, converted some fourth downs ... had some ridiculous 19 play scoring drive (yup 19). They get significant class relief for this game in that regard and should be able to take the momentum of the fourth quarter into the game this week. Taking a look at the UNC schedule, it is not one I would want were I tarheel fan and they really need this win or trouble is brewing. Of course, you can win without covering a game too. ECU had over 300 yards passing in their opening loss but it took them 66 throws to do it. 66 throws. hahaha. less than 5 yards per attempt. So I think ECU struggles against the UNC defense in general and we already know that if they are behind, they will throw it a lot. They won't be able to match up with the skill guys the way Cal could, or have success at the line of scrimmage the way the Cal did. So I expect UNC to score and if ECU is passing, I think it can balloon out of control properly.

NMSU plus pts and under - Game was -6 in the bowl in late december last year and went to overtime with less than 800 yards combined. NMSU offense has obviously taken a step back and Utah State certainly looked good week one. Revenge from the bowl probably eliminates some of the letdown spot here but from minus one score to minus 4 scores is a lot to make up. I know some of the NMSU defensive numbers look really bad but their offense provided nothing week zero and then a few days later they had to travel and face a big ten school on a short week. It was an impossible spot. Fairly meaningless game for USU other than the bowl revenge and NMSU more rested this time and has more time to work on their offense this time around. In addition, USU might run the ball more given NMSU rush defense numbers but wyoming and minny are smashmouth and USU isn't. I think NMSU defense is better than the stats indicate.
 
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Liberty/Army over 58.5 - I have been backing these types of overs the last few years. When less talented teams are playing a non-conference team that runs the option, particularly an academy, and they are a decent spread offense, I tend to like the over. Liberty will sling it around and Army should have some level of difficulty stopping that kind of attack. Meanwhile, Liberty gave up 42 last year to the Kennesaw State option attack and I would expect Army to have a lot of success moving it on their defense in this spot. Cubsker told me the Army QB is more capable of throwing than in past years for those longer distance conversions and for the surprise shot plays. Just seems like a game where the offenses have the edge and we are not looking at juggernaut defenses.
 
georgia Tech/ USF under 63 - Both teams had over 500 yards of offense week one and gave up a combined amount less than 400 yards to their two opponents last week. Obviously the opponents were not good. South flordia had a lot of plays in their games last year which does counteract the Georgia Tech pace, and the running clock. But when you look over the usf schedule last year, you find they played some pace teams and when they faced the option (tulane) the game only had 142 plays in it which was 17 less than their average on the remaining games. Even with those pace numbers, most usf games failed to reach this number and I think only two games reached it from GT last year. It got bet up to this number and I am not sure I understand why looking over the numbers. Looks straightforward under to me.
 
Houston minus the pts - Some of this is eye test but I watched Arizona and came away unimpressed. The big ugly defensive line of BYU really did well against their offensive line and it looked like the Arizona scheme was to make Tate more of a passer and less of a runner. The problem is that he is a really good runner and a very average to below average passer. Now they play against the likely overall number one player taken in next years draft in the form of Oliver. Seems like the offensive line issues are going to be tough to fix in a week. On the flip side, BYU had success both with running and passing the ball averaging 7.5 per pass attempt and 4.3 yards per rush. I realize it was rice but 12.8 per pass and 7.1 yards per rush and the coaches playcalling was an atrocity from the parts of the game I got to watch. Have a feeling that Houston was trying to win doing the minimum and Rice made a few plays on them, forcing them to show more in the second half. I dunno ... the line indicates that the teams are even and I just think Houston is already there and Arizona has some work to do to learn the new systems and get their blocking in order. Pretty confident in this one.
 
Have already decided on Miami. Let’s win it. Leaning UNC but prefer dogs and don’t like laying over two td’s on the road. You have encouraged me a nd will likely go back to my original preference for the heels. I was planning on zona but thanks for making me think further. Obviously I did not see either game. GL
 
bull said:
Have already decided on Miami. Let’s win it. Leaning UNC but prefer dogs and don’t like laying over two td’s on the road. You have encouraged me a nd will likely go back to my original preference for the heels. I was planning on zona but thanks for making me think further. Obviously I did not see either game. GL
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Hey Bull, if you need more encouragement, feel free to check out my thread as I posted my play on the Heels when the lines initially came out Sunday and I have a few topline thoughts posted in there as to why I jumped on it. Best of luck to you guys this weekend!
 
One of the most surprising things I came across, SMU got absolutely crushed by NT, but somehow the SMU D racked up 14 TFLs...only 2 teams had more last week (Miss ST, Arz St). SMU's last 2 games on O dating back to the bowl game have been downright pitiful though.
 
Glad to see you on MSU, been wanting to play it.
Waiting to see how things go.

GL sir
 
Miami Ohio - I watched last years game with an investment in it (not shockingly it lost) and Miami Ohio controlled the game throughout. They kicked a FG to go up 17-6 with somewhere around 4 or 5 minutes to go in the game. They let Cinci go 75 yards in just under two minutes and then they converted the two pt conversion. 17-14. Cinci kicks deep ... and Miami returns it to the 5 yard line somehow (I don't remember how that happened). Then Ragland throws an awful pick six. 17-21. Ragland proceeds to drive them down to the Cinci 25 before they eventually get stopped on downs at the Cinci 20. It was heartbreaking for that team and for Ragland personally. I want to show you the highlights if I can get the video to work ... I want you to pay attention to two things ... Ragland after the pick six and Ragland after the stopped on downs. Just watch him.


He is absolutely devastated. And I think he wants this badly. I mentioned in the ML dog thread last week that I thought the Marshall game was a sneaky bad spot for Miami Ohio ... I believe they want this cinci game badly. And I think Ragland wants this game badly. Really badly. I think it is a less than ideal spot for cinci .. travel to west coast and get a big win against a bad ucla team (see OU line), travel back and read headlines, and they are fiddling with their QB's and at the time I bet, he hadn't made a choice yet or I didn't know it. So I just think Miami Ohio outplayed them last year and I think they have a QB advantage in this game. I circled in the offseason, figured I would be getting a FG and not laying a minus sign ... but I still like them to win and end the streak and for Ragland to get redemption.

Also .. from a reading the lines perspective .. it is a very suspicious line. The game is at Paul Brown stadium in Cincinnati, Bearcats are off a big win that a lot of people made note of and Miami Ohio off a pretty even game with Marshall that they lost, Miami Ohio hasn't beaten Cincinnati and rung the "Victory Bell" since 2005, and the bearcats are the name team and Miami Ohio is a MAC team that most people know nothing about ... and yet Miami Ohio is the favorite. Just seems telling to me.

I am gonna bank on Ragland and co. getting some true revenge here.
 
s--k said:
One of the most surprising things I came across, SMU got absolutely crushed by NT, but somehow the SMU D racked up 14 TFLs...only 2 teams had more last week (Miss ST, Arz St). SMU's last 2 games on O dating back to the bowl game have been downright pitiful though.
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If we are to hype the TCU at Ohio State game for a full week, people need to think TCU is good. Cannot do that if they struggle against SMU. That is also code for "there is a chance TCU is looking ahead here". TCU week 1 was a laugher with 55 pts in three quarters but it is relatively meaningless. SMU has just been playing bad football their last few. Mason Fine completed 40 of 50 against these guys last week. That is disgusting. SMU rushed for 4 yards. That is even more disgusting. It was 36-0 UNT halfway through the fourth quarter ... then smu got garbage time scores 1 play 71 yards, 4 plays 74 yards, 6 plays 63 yards. so just over 200 yards on those last three drives to end the game (and most likely against the three deep roster of north texas). Now I didn't watch the game but they ended the game with 256 yards ... and that means for the first three and a half quarters .... against THE TULANE GREEN WAVE, WOW .. no, no, no .. against the North Texas Mean Green they had about 50 yards or thereabouts. That is hard to look away from. Just no reason to expect them to suddenly be good offensively after what we have seen in their last few efforts and if Fine and UNT can do that to their defense, then they might just be an awful team this year. Won't get into TCU advantages since most are glaring. I just want to point out just how incredibly bad their performance was last week.
 
Adds
Vanderbilt -8.5
gsu/ncsu under 58
UCLA/Oklahoma under 64.5
AFA/FAU under 66.5
psu/pitt under 55
Uconn +31.5
sbama/oklahoma St under 63.5
USM -5.5
 
RetroVK said:
If we are to hype the TCU at Ohio State game for a full week, people need to think TCU is good. Cannot do that if they struggle against SMU. That is also code for "there is a chance TCU is looking ahead here". TCU week 1 was a laugher with 55 pts in three quarters but it is relatively meaningless. SMU has just been playing bad football their last few. Mason Fine completed 40 of 50 against these guys last week. That is disgusting. SMU rushed for 4 yards. That is even more disgusting. It was 36-0 UNT halfway through the fourth quarter ... then smu got garbage time scores 1 play 71 yards, 4 plays 74 yards, 6 plays 63 yards. so just over 200 yards on those last three drives to end the game (and most likely against the three deep roster of north texas). Now I didn't watch the game but they ended the game with 256 yards ... and that means for the first three and a half quarters .... against THE TULANE GREEN WAVE, WOW .. no, no, no .. against the North Texas Mean Green they had about 50 yards or thereabouts. That is hard to look away from. Just no reason to expect them to suddenly be good offensively after what we have seen in their last few efforts and if Fine and UNT can do that to their defense, then they might just be an awful team this year. Won't get into TCU advantages since most are glaring. I just want to point out just how incredibly bad their performance was last week.
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Well played sir.
 
Love Twink, the man's a true gentleman. It's that time of my life(kids/work/recent move) where I have trouble finding time to devote the effort necessary to contribute positively, so I've been out of commission. Like some games this week so I'm gonna try and throw some thoughts out later. Thanks for the kind words BBF
 
Thank you for posting. I do a little work and then use you. I know you weren't happy last week, but I was. You helped me a lot as always. Based on my "Bones system" and then you, here is what I have:

Purdue -16
MissSt -7
Nebby -3
Clemson/A&M Over 51.5
Stanford -5.5

good luck
 
Br@ssknux said:
Love Twink, the man's a true gentleman. It's that time of my life(kids/work/recent move) where I have trouble finding time to devote the effort necessary to contribute positively, so I've been out of commission. Like some games this week so I'm gonna try and throw some thoughts out later. Thanks for the kind words BBF
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Good to see you around, Brass. Look forward to your post in the morning.
 
I feel like I made a unit next week by watching the game tonight. That team that I just saw, isn't going to be able to compete against TOSU without a lot of help from the Buckeyes. It will be interesting to see what the line is after this.
 
As of tonight and it could and will change .. of the 48 games, I have the best of it in 24, the worst of it in 15, the same line in 6 and 3 games with no investment yet (baylor utsa -ship sailed?, wyoming missouri - confusing, Rice Hawaii - not easy.

There are a couple games where I have the absolute worst of it ..

The big misses are

Totals
AppSt at Charlotte where my over is now lined 5.5 points lower at 47.5 (makes me want to mark the loss now)
eastern michigan/Purdue is now 3.5 points lower than my total, I assume this one is weather related.
UVA/Ind is now 3.5 pts lower at 50.5 (I think this could be a mistake on my part, I have certainly soured on it but not much I can do)
And ball st ndame is 3 points less than I played it at (potentially weather, potentially ball st cannot score)

Sides

Minnesota - I laid almost a FG and now Fresno State is the favorite.
Miss State - I laid 9.5 and it is down to a TD and I think there will be weather than which negates the QB edge somewhat. Not sure if this is decent home dog backing, weather related, Miss St being overrated by me and others, or miss st not being respected by bettors. Not sure to be honest but I really, really like their football team.
Nebraska - I know I saw some 5.5's out there at one point so pretty sure I didn't get the worst number ever available but its close. Colorado looked good in the opener and Nebraska didn't get that free game to work on their new systems. Understandable that it would drop and it was certainly a speculative play on Frost mattering immediately. As long as Nebraska doesn't win and not cover, that way I can at least make fun of cubsker if I lose.


So quite a few misses but when you play every game you can't beat the line in all of them.
 
Regarding 1st paragraph, don’t beat yourself up too bad pal.. I bet the kind of volume with ncaa hoops you do w the foots and have had pretty unlikely set of 0-7 thru 1–11 runs one of those days in 1st few weeks most years! (only difference I see is hoops afforded me chance to flip a good run right back much sooner while you had to wait a week. Honestly it just makes your week 1 record more impressive you managed to go back right direction and keep damage minimal!!

I prob said it bunch of times but so grateful for your time and all the awesome discussion in this thread and others as I simply don’t have time this time of year to know all these teams so I get my plays by readings ya’ll stuff and picking what sounds best...

I’m certainly looking to tail a few extra of yours knowing you won’t be negative for long..
 
RetroVK said:
I feel like I made a unit next week by watching the game tonight. That team that I just saw, isn't going to be able to compete against TOSU without a lot of help from the Buckeyes. It will be interesting to see what the line is after this.
Click to expand...
+1
 
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