time to post my week three card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Sides 21-12
Totals 10-12
Halftimes 6-2
Overall 37-26



Locked In.
Oregon -13.5 winner 1-0
TAMU -22.5 winner 2-0
Kentucky 7 -120 winner 3-0
Kansas State -3 loser 3-1
Cincinnati 6 winner 4-1
Connecticut 10.5 loser 4-2
Kansas 7.5 loser 4-3
SJSU 27 loser 4-4
Ole Miss -3.5 loser 4-5
Clemson -3 winner 5-5
Missouri -7 loser 5-6
Notre Dame -13.5 winner 6-6
27-18

Totals
sjsu/utah under 56 loser 0-1
UCLA/Memphis over 70.5 winner 1-1
uconn/uva over 51 winner 2-1
Cinci/MOH Over 45 loser 2-2
Umass/Temple over 51.5 loser 2-3
Orst/washst under 64 loser 2-4
Troy/nmsu over 62.5 loser 2-5
Texas/usc under 67 winner 3-5
OU/Tulane under 57.5 loser 3-6
MTSU/Minny over 51 loser 3-7
Cmich/Cuse over 66.5 loser 3-8
13-20

Halftimes
2h Temple/Umass over 24.5 winner 1-0
2h USF -9.5 2-0
8-2

Strong Leans
UNC -7.5
Oklahoma State -13 (Can they stop pitt rushing attack?)


Talk Me Off Leans
ULM 6.5
Idaho 16.5 (Line likely gets larger and I will be tempted)
 
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I realize that it is difficult to want to back TAMU laying these kinds of points but Mond and Hubenak got some action and the match up is tailor made for the Aggies imo ULL has just been incapable of stopping anyone from running the football to start the year and this seems an unlikely opponent for them to do it against. I also think ULL struggles more to move the ball than in other games. TAMU rams it down their throats for a blowout win.
 
And the winner of ridiculous line of the week goes to .........

Georgia Tech and UCF !!!

I cannot, for the life of me, believe where the books and market are rating ucf based off of one game against FIU. Throw out all of last year, I guess. But also ... how is UCF going to prepare for the option this week with all the distractions and so forth? I suppose there is an outside chance this game doesn't get played. They did face the option last year in the form of Tulane but that is a little different on multiple levels. I think they defended it decently and did force 5 turnovers in the game. They were still outgained by Tulane despite 5 turnovers from the wave. I think we are getting a little ahead of ourselves with the UCF love. Last weeks line was ridiculous as can easily be seen by the current UCLA/Memphis line. GT did show some secondary vulnerability to the Vols in week 1, and UCF does have ok receivers. So I suppose that would be the concern. I actually have little concern. It will take an effort by GT to not win.
 
Kansas State and Texas are two of my enigma teams. It seems I always get their games wrong. Well, I am all about kstate this week so load up on Vandy.
 
vk said:
And the winner of ridiculous line of the week goes to .........

Georgia Tech and UCF !!!

I cannot, for the life of me, believe where the books and market are rating ucf based off of one game against FIU. Throw out all of last year, I guess. But also ... how is UCF going to prepare for the option this week with all the distractions and so forth? I suppose there is an outside chance this game doesn't get played. They did face the option last year in the form of Tulane but that is a little different on multiple levels. I think they defended it decently and did force 5 turnovers in the game. They were still outgained by Tulane despite 5 turnovers from the wave. I think we are getting a little ahead of ourselves with the UCF love. Last weeks line was ridiculous as can easily be seen by the current UCLA/Memphis line. GT did show some secondary vulnerability to the Vols in week 1, and UCF does have ok receivers. So I suppose that would be the concern. I actually have little concern. It will take an effort by GT to not win.
Click to expand...

Agree, and took them myself. UCF is no juggernaut. Much prefer Johnson to Frost in coaching match-up as well...
 
Shocked to see a 9 hung in Athens. Bobcats looked like dogshit in West Lafayette...I could see 3 or 4 but 9?
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Reasoning for Kentucky por favor? BOL Freund
Click to expand...
His reasoning is that line is inflated AF. Cocks are good and they are at home but a 7pt favorite in a tough SEC game with a young team that has a shaky D? Honestly I could see them running it down our throats like they did a few years ago to easy victory.
 
I guess the turnovers and dropped passes from Missouri explain why they only managed 13 points, and not South Carolina's defense, which gave up a lot of yards...
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I guess the turnovers and dropped passes from Missouri explain why they only managed 13 points, and not South Carolina's defense, which gave up a lot of yards...
Click to expand...
vk and I had a back and forth in the in game that essentially describes this, but it is a bit of both. The defense is overperforming expectations, and have been opportunistic/lucky with the takeaways. Gamecocks are going to give up a lot of yards to Mizzou, that was expected. I think Kentucky will have the offense to be able to punish on the run more than Gamecocks have seen yet, NC St. did it some in the first half. The main point is the UK poor performance last week looking ahead to this week along with USC win as a dog has created an inflation. Cocks should probably be favored slightly because of home field, not as a TD favorite.
 
Does Kentucky have a consistent quarterback though? Johnson? To go with their rush attack. Even against SC's shaky secondary and lack of pass rush
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Reasoning for Kentucky por favor? BOL Freund
Click to expand...

Well, South Carolina (while better than I thought and playing very hard) looks to be a bit of fools gold to me so far. 246 yards in victory over ncsu and 359 yards in the victory over Missouri. They gave up 504 and 423 respectively, in those games. They had a kick return for TD in both games. while the player is great, you cannot count on that on a weekly basis. Moreover, I dropped UK in my PR after the USM game and I have raised South Carolina a half pt in my pr since the start of the year. So they are currently ranked 108th in the nation in defense (utilizing yards per game) and tanked 114th in total offense (utilizing yards per game). Here are the South Carolina scoring drives this year

TD - 1 play 25 yards (after interception set them up)
TD - 9 plays 80 yards
FG - 11 plays 58 yards
TD - 7 plays 44 yards (after fumbled punt)
TD - 11 plays 80 yards
TD - 8 plays 40 yards
TD - 3 plays 51 yards (The great Bentley escape the sack, throw a great ball and then Samuel great catch play)
TD - 2 plays 12 yards (after ncstate turnover)

In addition, South Carolina is a relatively slow paced team. They have run an average of 59 plays per game while playing NCST and Mizz. That kind of pace makes the 7 harder to cover.

They return home though, so you might expect some better play with that. But at the same time, this has been a grueling two games for them and two emotional games for them to a degree. Throw in the fact that UK held them to under 300 yards in last years game and I have to take my chances that this game stays within a score.

UK hasn't exactly been impressive themselves offensively but their defense has played decently. They have been a disappointment. I think the big South Carolina wins are somewhat deceiving and that is giving us value on two teams that are basically even.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Does Kentucky have a consistent quarterback though? Johnson? To go with their rush attack. Even against SC's shaky secondary and lack of pass rush
Click to expand...

Not really. Their offense has been a big disappointment as a whole so far.

I don't think they need many to cover though.
 
Marsski said:
Shocked to see a 9 hung in Athens. Bobcats looked like dogshit in West Lafayette...I could see 3 or 4 but 9?
Click to expand...

The number of people running free in the secondary all game, gives me hope that at a minimum the backdoor will be open.
 
Gotta Eat said:
Texas USC thoughts?
Click to expand...

No idea to be honest. I mean that sincerely. I don't know what to make of Texas and don't know how the USC kids are going to react to the success of last week. Texas also got a lot of little dings last week. I think most of them play but they all cannot be 100%. That includes the Texas QB. so I would check on his status before that game too.
 
Of course it is. I added some plays this morning. I will post them after my plane takes off

I hope i am wrong about UCF because my favorite two plays of the last two weeks have been cancelled. Ridiculous. But if I am wrong about them, i have saved a lot.

Also just something to ponder....if ucf looks good beating memphis would they have been favored in this game? Haha silly (i think)
 
Thank you for your support of the Ags. I'm oppo you on that game.
Team tired of Summy.
Hope you're right.
 
Looks like some RLM action on Kentucky. Down to +6 at some books despite 71% of tix on SC... number will presumably come back up to 7
 
Have to think letdown city in Norman as well right VK?
I had that lined a tad lower.....what did you make Tulane?
 
Have to catch up on posting the additional plays:

Connecticut 10.5
Connecticut/UVA over 51
Kansas 7.5
UCLA/Memphis over 70.5
SJSU 27
SJSU/Utah Under 56
Ole Miss -3.5
Texas/USC Under 67
Troy/NMSU Over 62.5
Clemson -3
Missouri -7
Notre Dame -13.5
Cinci/MOH Over 45
Umass/Temple over 51.5
Orst/washst under 64
oregon -13.5
OU/Tulane under 57.5
MTSU/Minny over 51
Cmich/Cuse over 66.5
 
Uconn/UVA - This is not your fathers Connecticut or UVA in the sense that these teams are now playing with pace. Uconn had 160 plays in their opener against Holy Cross (week 2 cancelled) and uva coming off a game with similar total plays where they attempted 66 passes. They were playing a fast paced team in the form of Indiana but that applies here as well so no reason to think we do not see plays. This is very significant when talking about two teams who gave up 5.72 yards per play and 6.33 yards per play on defense in 2016. In other words, with these two defenses, these teams are generate some opportunities on sheer volume of plays. Last years final score is giving pretty significant value to this total in my estimation. Even in last years game Uconn had some very long drives that ended in FG's. I think they reach the twenties much more often than they don't. As I have played Uconn plus the points, those of you who have lots of opportunities with team totals should consider that TT over in lieu of the two individual bets. I think UVA is a well deserved favorite but the DD is ponderous to me and too much value for me to pass on. I mean, doesn't UVA have to prove they can lay this type of number? They didn't beat an fbs team by dd in 2016 or 2015. Final score 33-27 UVA.
 
Missouri - I have had a pretty good read on Purdue over the first few weeks of the season. This line is short. And I realize some adjustments have been made to where Purdue is being rated but to illustrate my point .. look at the purdue/ville line which closed at roughly 26 depending on your book. That game was played in Indianapolis, Indiana which I will consider a neutral field for this exercise. This game is 7/7.5 depending where you shop .. but mostly 7.5. Let's give Missouri a 3 or 3.5 pt home field advantage and you basically have Missouri as a 4 pt favorite to Purdue on a neutral. While not exactly accurate, this makes louisville roughly a 22 pt favorite over Missouri on a neutral. Ridiculous. Purdue is improved, but let's not get carried away. They were outgained by 180 yards in that ville game and even in their comfortable win against Ohio they gave up 5.91 yards per play. Being improved does not make you 4 pts within a team like Missouri. Moreover, this missouri team is better offensively than they showed against usce and they are probably chomping at the bit to get out there and finish drives. I think Missouri handles Purdue rather easily in this game and while they have Auburn on deck, I actually think the boilers having Michigan on deck is far bigger a distraction. It is also important to note that their improvement has been in a semi-home/semi-neutral site and at home against one of the lesser versions of Ohio in recent memory. They had incredible road woes last year, losing by double digits in every road game but the finale against Indiana. They have a lot to prove before we start putting them in the category of within 4 pts of Missouri. Lock had a rough game against south carolina and I look for him to bounce back in the class drop and speaking of drops, perhaps the WR's will hang on to the passes he hits him in the hands with. I bring that up not just because of the Missouri drops in the last game but because Purdue also has had some problems with having hands of stone. One team going on first true road game of the year and moving up in class and playing an angry team moving down in class in a home game they need as they will be potentially dogged at home in three of their last four. Matchups look good and the situation looks good and the line looks very good to attack.

I backed Purdue for two easy wins the first two weeks but they get beat easily in this one.
 
I wanted to avoid betting Clemson. I thought perhaps the one way you might be able to effectively attack the Tigers would be to have a mobile guy extend plays against their DL and find a receiver breaking free late. The problem is that even in that scenario, where Louisville has more success against that Clemson defense than most other teams, I don't necessarily believe that Clemson couldn't outscore them anyway. The ville defense has not impressed. Still Ville has played both games away from home and might be a bit more comfortable at home but the class hike here is huge. Game looks a lot like a replay of the bowl game against LSU on paper.
 
twinkie13 said:
Have to think letdown city in Norman as well right VK?
I had that lined a tad lower.....what did you make Tulane?
Click to expand...
You would think so. This game is sandwiched between the tosu game and the conference opener. So it was likely to be a sleepy game regardless of the outcome. Some concern the stadium could be extra rowdy coming off that win though and not sure Tulane can get enough stops on OU. I thought the under was the safer way to attack this because it is hard to see Tulane scoring on big plays, particularly with Banks banged up (questionable as of this post with a chest injury). I certainly wouldn't keep playing Banks if he is hurt if the game gets out of hand. i think he matters. So I glanced at the under because I don't see Tulane scoring on OU much, regardless of QB but especially without Banks, but I can see them eating clock and grinding a couple of drives out. OU off a physical game so no reason for them to want to run a ton of plays and they are #2 now with a signature road win ... running up the score is completely meaningless and not sure they would go classless after fighting the Press about the almost-implant of the OU flag on the TOSU 50 yard line. Once I decided the under has more value than the side, I couldn't bring myself to take Tulane. I also just have a feeling that despite my numbers the matchup stinks for the wave, so while the situation is clearly good, the matchups and possibility of Banks missing action made me go under to back the likely sleepiness rather than the side. But I have it under 30 to give you an idea of why I felt originally that I would be forced to play Tulane. I will regret not taking them probably. That said, hard to imagine too many scenarios where Tulane to the over works out.
 
I hate, hate, hate this spot for Utah. They played their annual holy war game in a late night game Saturday and now face a SJSU team there is no way that they can respect, and have a Friday game the following week at Arizona to start conference play in a game where Zona will have an extra day or so to prepare than Utah will. Obviously SJSU is a big drop in class for Utah's offense after facing BYU but at the same time I am not sure Utah is exactly at the dynamic level of offense that warrants these kinds of expectation. They had 430 yards of offense in the BYU game which is just fine normally but I am less impressed by that when BYU only generated 233. See no reason for Utah to not take it easy this game. Maybe SJSU is every bit as bad as they played against Texas last week but I think they are probably just really bad. If Utah gets mid-to-high forties or better so be it.
 
vk said:
You would think so. This game is sandwiched between the tosu game and the conference opener. So it was likely to be a sleepy game regardless of the outcome. Some concern the stadium could be extra rowdy coming off that win though and not sure Tulane can get enough stops on OU. I thought the under was the safer way to attack this because it is hard to see Tulane scoring on big plays, particularly with Banks banged up (questionable as of this post with a chest injury). I certainly wouldn't keep playing Banks if he is hurt if the game gets out of hand. i think he matters. So I glanced at the under because I don't see Tulane scoring on OU much, regardless of QB but especially without Banks, but I can see them eating clock and grinding a couple of drives out. OU off a physical game so no reason for them to want to run a ton of plays and they are #2 now with a signature road win ... running up the score is completely meaningless and not sure they would go classless after fighting the Press about the almost-implant of the OU flag on the TOSU 50 yard line. Once I decided the under has more value than the side, I couldn't bring myself to take Tulane. I also just have a feeling that despite my numbers the matchup stinks for the wave, so while the situation is clearly good, the matchups and possibility of Banks missing action made me go under to back the likely sleepiness rather than the side. But I have it under 30 to give you an idea of why I felt originally that I would be forced to play Tulane. I will regret not taking them probably. That said, hard to imagine too many scenarios where Tulane to the over works out.
Click to expand...
thanks....yes, Banks matters
 
vk said:
I wanted to avoid betting Clemson. I thought perhaps the one way you might be able to effectively attack the Tigers would be to have a mobile guy extend plays against their DL and find a receiver breaking free late. The problem is that even in that scenario, where Louisville has more success against that Clemson defense than most other teams, I don't necessarily believe that Clemson couldn't outscore them anyway. The ville defense has not impressed. Still Ville has played both games away from home and might be a bit more comfortable at home but the class hike here is huge. Game looks a lot like a replay of the bowl game against LSU on paper.
Click to expand...
I tend to agree. Clemson looks real deal to me
 
Interesting. The Utah game total skyrockets to 60 (ugh) but the line drops to 26. I am no math genius but it appears that some folks think that SJSU can score in this game.
 
I expect Utah to work out some offensive issues in this game vk. They've had a plethora of WR holds and inefficiency in the RZ. I think they will be looking to fix these issues and I expect to see them in the mid 40's.
 
It is odd, the line drop suggests people think SJSU are gonna score a bit, is there injury news on Utah defense Utes? Rare to see both dog money and total skyrocket.
 
Chase Hansen is out 4 weeks, had to have thumb surgery. They've got some good young players behind. Marquise Blair is a name to remember, he's going to be a good one. That's the only thing I can think of on defense but I don't think it would make that much difference.
 
Was leaning scary, uva, and Purdue. I see where you are opposite all three and seem to take your strongest opinion on my opponents, which causes me to rethink for the third week in a row. Thank you for your insight.
 
Utes - It isn't like I think SJSU will shut down the Utah offense. And again, I realize that SJSU has probably been moved down considerably by everyone in their power ratings after being destroyed by USF and Texas. But this line basically puts utah on par with USF and above Texas in PR.. I am on a bit of an island with this one. Several of the people whose opinion I respect a lot think Utah wipes the floor with SJSU and I hate that you, an expert on Utah, thinks similarly. I also note that Utah dominated BYU more than the scoreboard indicates and much more than I would have expected. It means that I might be lower on Utah than I should be. At the same time, their offense was less productive, from a points perspective, than I would have expected in both games they have played, the spot is horrible, and while SJSU may not be valued the lowest they will ever be all season, it will be close.

kj - Hopefully reading too much into it or not enough into it. As my friend D$ told me, what matters most here is that my value stinks. I will be adding some more $ to the total today at the higher number but not doubling the amount so will grade based on my shitty number. SJSU fearsome foursome better bow up. Their Steel Curtain better stay closed. Their purple people eaters better have a taste for Ute. Or they better just be competitive enough to eat some clock while they are being destroyed.

Bull - I like Kentucky and Missouri a lot and with each passing day, I like Missouri more and more. Uconn is a bit more speculative so I am a little less confident in that one but do feel pretty good about them reaching the twenties which would ensure me at least a split.
 
Time for the Friday value check. It won't be as pretty this week in aggregate with a minor aggregate edge vs current. Not what a handicapper wants, I am afraid.

TAMU -22.5 -24 1.5 1.5
Kentucky 7 -120 6.5 1.5 1.5
Kansas State -3 -3.5 0.5 2
Georgia Tech -1.5 canceled
Cincinnati 6 5.5 0.5 2.5
Connecticut 10.5 10.4 0 2.5
Connecticut/UVA over 51 51 0 2.5
Kansas 7.5 7.5 0 2.5
UCLA/Memphis over 70.5 73 2.5 5
SJSU 27 26 1 6
SJSU/Utah Under 56 59.5 -3.5 2
Ole Miss -3.5 -3.5 0 2
Texas/USC Under 67 67.5 -0.5 1.5
Troy/NMSU Over 62.5 59.5 -3 -1.5
Clemson -3 -3 0 -1.5
Missouri -7 -7.5 0.5 -1
Notre Dame -13.5 -13 -0.5 -1.5
Cinci/MOH Over 45 49 4 2.5
Umass/Temple over 51.5 50.5 -1 1.5
Orst/washst under 64 65.5-1.5 0
oregon -13.5 -14 0.5 0.5
OU/Tulane under 57.5 55 2.5 3
MTSU/Minny over 51 51.5 0.5 3.5
Cmich/Cuse over 66.5 67.5 1 4.5
 
Thank for the reply, VK
I'm putting UVA in a ML parlay - not taking ATS
I'll sit out UK- Scar
No decision on Mizzou-Purdue.

I seem to place more emphasis on coaches than most bettors; this factor was important in leading me to Scary and Purdue.

GL per usual
 
What you think about USF game tonight?

I think Charlie Strong is a terrible HC but they stop the run and that's really all Illinois has to this point.
 
Illinois defense has been either overachieving or they are better coached. Hard to tell but you have to consider the possibility they are better coached given their HC. They have a large HC advantage in this game in general. I tend to agree that you cannot count on Illinois to do much other than run the football half decently and they don't necessarily match up great here for that. So given a somewhat tight range of what Illinois can produce the question of the game becomes what USF can produce. That is harder to figure out and becomes even more difficult with at least the potential for weather tonight. I don't have much of an opinion on side or total but will use the game to get a better understanding of Illinois. Sorry I am not more help but I would rather say "I don't have an opinion" or "I see no edge either way" or "I have no confidence in how this game may play out" than blow smoke up your ass and pretend I know something I don't.
 
7:00 PM

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Mostly Cloudy 86° 97°
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73% NE 3 mph
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Scattered Thunderstorms 83° 93°
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81% ENE 5 mph
9:00 PM

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Thunderstorms 80° 87°
95%
88% E 5 mph
10:00 PM

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Thunderstorms 79° 87°
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Partly Cloudy
 
Kyle you went to UTEP, or are atleast somewhat of a fan I've gathered?

Read Kugler said that Greenlee had really strong fall camp, he even said "the best of all three QBs".

I'm just getting tempted by this inflated point spread now, was 25.5 a minute ago. Any reassuring thoughts you have on the Miners?
 
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