time to post my week 9 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
week 1 0-0
week 2 0-0
week 3 9-4
week 4 6-5-1
week 5 12-8
week 6 16-11
week 7 5-11
week 8 10-16
Total 58-55-1

I am now losing for the year and in a pretty bad handicapping patch. Beware if you are tailing. Funny thing was, I was discussing with one of the CTG people via text recently about how I am just waiting for the bad year to happen and that it will happen eventually. Hasn't yet since I started posting here (Cannot remember what year that was) but it is inevitable that it will happen and this might be the year. In any event, I would be lying to you if I said I had a lot of confidence right now. That said, I made some investments today.

Locked In

Uconn -9.5 1-1
Maryland 15.5 1-1
Western Michigan -26 2-1
Hawaii -10.5 3-1
USF -1 4-1
USM -12.5 5-1
MTSU 2 6-1
UNC -4 6-2
UCF -8 7-2
SMU -13.5 7-3
SMU/Houston over 67 7-4
USC -13 7-5
USC/Col over 60.5 8-5
BG/Wmich over 63 8-6
Iowa/NW over 37.5 8-7
Illinois/Purdue over 58.5 8-8
Tulane/Navy over 52 9-8
UVA/Ville over 55 9-9
MSU 7 9-10
CUSE/FSU over 57.5 9-11
UCF/Temple over 61 10-11
Texas Tech/Kansas under 60.5 10-12
Iowa State/Oklahoma St under 64.5 11-12
Ariz st/UCLA over 55.5 12-12
Missouri/UK over 47.5 12-13
ND/Mich under 50.5 12-14
Texas State/Arkansas State over 58.5 12-15
Stanford 1 13-15
Clemson -34 14-15
 
Last edited:
Last week was the worst for me in a looo g while. Im getting back into what gave me Ws for years but perhaps last week was just one of tbem weeks.

Same boat with you on MSU. I casually looked at mtsu, what do you like there?
 
You already know my feelings on MSU PSU but I'll copy over once we have bten thread up.
 
RetroVK said:
Oh ya. They clear that more times than not imo. Tough spot for psu no?
Click to expand...

Yes but I just can’t rely on MSU offense for anything so I’ll probably pass. Not feeling good about morale for MSU either.

I need to look it up and verify but doesn’t PSU usually beat the breaks off MSU?
 
I will agree there are signs morale is low. When you look at what Wisconsin did vs NW and Illy and look at what they did vs MSU, you have to fear some level of quit. It at least has to enter your mind when the power run teams are usually what MSU matches up well against.
 
Adds

SMU -13.5
SMU/Houston over 67
USC -13
USC/Col over 60.5
BG/Wmich over 63
Iowa/NW over 37.5
Illinois/Purdue over 58.5
Tulane/Navy over 52
UVA/Ville over 55
MSU 7
CUSE/FSU over 57.5
UCF/Temple over 61
Texas Tech/Kansas under 60.5
Iowa State/Oklahoma St under 64.5
Ariz st/UCLA over 55.5
Missouri/UK over 47.5
ND/Mich under 50.5
Texas State/Arkansas State over 58.5
 
Hawaii minus more than current market - Have to wonder if someone is pulling the okie dokie here with this line move. Hawaii averaging 359 pass yards per game at 7.9 per attempt with 26 td passes. Thank the yards per game puts them in top five in the nation. Meanwhile, their opponent is dead last in the nation defending the pass, giving up 348 yards per game. And their 9.4 yards per attempt allowed is bested by all except USM and UMASS. New Mexico running for 212 a game at 4.97 yards per carry. You would expect them to have decent rush numbers but the thing is Hawaii is off back to back losses and got a nice set up game here with AFA. What is the best result here for the conference? Well, UNM is 2-5 with Nevada, AFA, Boise State and Utah State on their remaining four game schedule. They are not going to win 3 out of these next five very often. They are done. Hawaii is 4-3 with 6 games left, They probably find two more wins regardless of this outcome but this would really put them in good position. Match up seems right, motivation seems right, travel seems very wrong (not just the normal but UNM is at elevation for the sea level kids) ... had to.
 
Fwiw, it's definitely time to start capping with "what is best" for a conference. I am not saying as an absolute but as an advisement. I think we saw it in at least 3 power 5 conferences last Saturday.
 
UCF Minus the million pts - UCF 5th in the nation in passing and temple secondary looks lost out there right now, giving up 363 to Memphis and 457 to SMU through the air. Temple rush offense hasn't been very good and they don't rate to have a ton of success on UCF on the ground. So that leaves Russo to keep up and I will pay to see that.

Since the Terp game (which has lost some shine, the owls have outgained buffalo by ten yards, GT by 17 yards, ECU by 163, were mildly outgained by Memphis and then the SMU debacle last week. There is some evidence here that Temple isn't very good. UCF had the bad game vs Pitt where they were outgained but otherwise have been pretty good on the yardage differential and game control. Should be lots of points out there for the taking for UCF and if Temple contributes it should fly over. I am not completely sold on that happening but I like UCF to put up enough that this game goes over a majority of the time regardless.

Just backing the vastly superior team here with what appears to be a good matchup for the UCF offense.
 
Decent chance I am on Clemson this week. I am not a fan of laying this kind of number vs a team as decent as BC is but the match up really seems to work here for Clemson imo. I don't think BC has shown the ability to throw the ball competently against a good defense. Against NCST last week, they generated some holes running but mainly they just broke a lot of bad tackles by the Pack (a lot of bad tackles). I don't see how that will work here. Clemson left points off the board last week and match up great against the BC Defense. When down 20, what does BC do??? Keep running to move on to the next game or try and come back? I am gonna assume the later and that means they will have to throw more. BC in fast paced games as it is ... and while I don't think they have the ball a ton, they rate to be snapping quickly at least once behind.

Gets out of hand imo. I am gonna kind of see where the line goes but definitely want to back Clemson in some way shape or form in this one.
 
I don't have more on any of them. A little less on Uconn cause I used a unique way of betting that game but I like that as much as the others.
 
Rusty .... Debbie won't lose this week. You can spread it around and you won't lose. First time all year that I really love my card.
 
Add

Stanford +1

Speculative play that think it will be Costello, inwhich case the line is wrong.
 
RetroVK said:
Decent chance I am on Clemson this week. I am not a fan of laying this kind of number vs a team as decent as BC is but the match up really seems to work here for Clemson imo. I don't think BC has shown the ability to throw the ball competently against a good defense. Against NCST last week, they generated some holes running but mainly they just broke a lot of bad tackles by the Pack (a lot of bad tackles). I don't see how that will work here. Clemson left points off the board last week and match up great against the BC Defense. When down 20, what does BC do??? Keep running to move on to the next game or try and come back? I am gonna assume the later and that means they will have to throw more. BC in fast paced games as it is ... and while I don't think they have the ball a ton, they rate to be snapping quickly at least once behind.

Gets out of hand imo. I am gonna kind of see where the line goes but definitely want to back Clemson in some way shape or form in this one.
Click to expand...


@M.W. could comment on it better, but the comments made by Dabo over the last couple of weeks make me think they want to make a statement. He brought up margin of victory this week, and I think they are feeling disrespected to be dropped down to 4th in AP. Clemson plays much better IMO with a chip on their shoulder. I'm with on this one
 
Have one late start Saturday game I am stalking but otherwise I think that will be it for me other than halftimes.
 
RetroVK said:
Add

Stanford +1

Speculative play that think it will be Costello, inwhich case the line is wrong.
Click to expand...
That was my original thinking as well, but digging in more where I became cautious is Stanford's pass defense has had varying success or lack of, this year.
 
rambler882 said:
That was my original thinking as well, but digging in more where I became cautious is Stanford's pass defense has had varying success or lack of, this year.
Click to expand...
They stink. The team stinks. The coach does a decent job (games where I am not backing Stanford) half the time and a bad job half the time (games where I am backing Stanford).

I suppose I could have done speculation with the over instead of Stanford side. But we will see. Guy that I text with sent me info on Costello this morning that makes it seem like maybe he returns for this one. You won't see Mills for sure.
 
Something I like about Stanford, situationally...they had a bye before UCLA, so they had a week off and they took the field with that pathetic performance at home last week. They are still home this week. They have another bye coming up. Stanford going to go 0-2 at home sandwiched by off weeks?

Unless the majority of that team is just hanging it up right now, I think we get one of the best games Stanford has played all year. I think this is a line in the sand game, right their season before the bye...since obviously the last 2 weeks were just pitifully wasted time and effort. Win this week, get to .500 go into the last bye and finish strong has to be everyone's mindset (assuming they care). If they still care, they play really hard this week.

And if Costello is back, it pushes it over the edge from "wanting" to play hard and win to being "capable" of doing it.
 
gps_3 said:
@M.W. could comment on it better, but the comments made by Dabo over the last couple of weeks make me think they want to make a statement. He brought up margin of victory this week, and I think they are feeling disrespected to be dropped down to 4th in AP. Clemson plays much better IMO with a chip on their shoulder. I'm with on this one
Click to expand...
I hope y’all bet it. I was there with wife and kids in their first trip to Death Valley and my mother in her last.
 
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