time to post my week 9 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
ML Dogs 1-0 (small price)
Teasers 1-2
Sides 53-38
Totals 52-50
Halftimes 15-8
Overall 122-98 (55.5%)


Pretty Proud of the results so far. The big advantage of the shotgun approach is that you can achieve a result that is nearly impossible for small play count players. If someone were playing 3 games a week, in order to achieve the same results financially (assuming same unit size), you would have to go 79%. Obviously, it is easier to hit a high percentage at a small count of plays compared to a large one and you risk the negative side of this same equation were you to run bad, but I think the people who are creating lines well are probably doing themselves a disservice by limiting their action. Now, If you are willing to bet huge on those limited plays, we are talking a different story, though I would argue you would always want money on anything plus EV. Still, I am not Bill Gates so playing a lot of games has resulted in me playing at lower bet sizes. Anyway, on to this week.


Locked In:

Teaser:
Tcu-1/SDSU-2 loser

Sides:
Nebraska 4.5 winner
UNM -2 loser
Texas State 8 winner


Totals:
Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois Under 47.5 Loser
Arkansas/Ole Miss Under 64 loser
Nebraska/Purdue Over 51 loser
UVA/Pitt Under 49.5 winner
Georgia/Florida Under 44.5 loser
Penn St/Ohio State under 57.5 loser
GT/Clemson under 50 winner
Okst/WVU Under 73 loser
Missouri/Uconn over 76 loser
utah/Oregon Over 48 winner

Halftimes
sdsu/haw under 26 winner
usc/asu under 27 winner

ML Dogs 1-0 (small price)
Teasers 1-3
Sides 55-39
Totals 55-57
Halftimes 17-8
Overall 129-107
 
Last edited:
So last nights total is an example, I think, of how you can get many things right when handicapping a game but if you get one key thing wrong, it can make what felt like a good bet and what most will think was a good bet and turn it into a not so good bet.

Quick look at the stats .... 403-392 and that includes the overtime period. So 794 yards which is fine for the under in most cases. The defenses even performed greater than the total yardage would indicate. They combined for just 5.1 yards per play which would rank your offensive unit in the bottom thirty or your defensive unit in the top 40 in football. To combine for it should usually mean a pretty low scoring game. So what was the problem? What did we get so wrong.... no not the two blocked punts. That was random. What is wrong is the 154 plays. They threw the ball 84 times and while the defenses largely defended that well, some plays are going to happen when you get that.

To give you an illustration, the two starting QB's had a QBR of 39.8 and 31.9 respectively and the two running games averaged 2.9 and 3.2 yards per rush respectively.

There was an amazing 10 three and outs in the game.

I often talk about how I overvalue pace. I do. No doubt ... but let us not forget that pace is the basic foundation of totals. I misjudged it in this game, not that I thought it would be a super low number of plays, but I didn't think we would see anything close to this. The 154 plays does include the overtime I guess.

Got a lot about the game correct from a matchup perspective but that is only part of a total.... you have to get the pace right. Otherwise a team ... let's say NIU ... might get two or three extra possessions in a game they shouldn't get .. and those extra possessions will be against a more tired defense. And that could mean late scores to make you feel bad. But don't just feel bad ... honestly look at the game and see where you went wrong. There wasn't a single drive in the second half that lasted 4 minutes. That cost me money and I am saying my inability to cap the number of plays and the distribution of the plays correctly was my mistake. I hope the Eastern Michigan coach looks at his second half and the fact that they ran zero clock each drive and realizes what a mistake he made. And then, with the game on the line where all he needs is a few first downs ... that is when he decides to take the ball out of Roback's hands completely? Just awful.

Anyway, gonna be a small card this week as I don't like much.

I will be in the Kansas City area this weekend and the Lafayette area next week. Maybe I can meet up with a CTGer at one of those locales.
 
Adds

Nebraska 4.5
Nebraska/Purdue over 51
UNM -2
Texas State 8
Arkansas/Ole Miss Under 64


Good luck all
 
I liked the under too last night. I didnt get to watch but turned it on to see a blocked punt with 3 min left.

For me ive never been able to account for spec teams well or accurately so i exclude it entirely now and consider it outliers that even out over time.

Have fun in KC
 
Good grab on TxSt. Line was so weird to me I was double checking that game before doing anything. Safe travels!
 
Pace was fine last night...

NIlly is 17th in country in pace while EMU is 63rd...

Combined, they average 151 plays per game...so take away OT and they were just below...

It is the other things that happen, as you know. Still, a solid play that didn't win.
 
When you have time before tomorrow afternoon...

Talk about Texas State to me...

On my radar in some capacity so would like to get some thoughts...
 
You handicapped that game correctly. I watched most of the game and everything about that game--except for the blocked punts--looked like a game that was an under. I was surprised to see each team occasionally go to an Oklahoma State type pace for a few plays, but still the game looked like an under right up to the point it went over.

I completely stopped playing college unders because of the overtime rules. It's hard enough to handicap totals and then you get one right and overtime kills you. There are just enough overtime games that it makes it hard, maybe impossible, to win betting unders. I spent some time last year with one of my math guys trying to get an exact percentage of what overtime has done to college unders but never did figure out how to do it.

We could find the number of overtime games per season, but still couldn't come up with a precise answer. I think there must be a way to do it, but I don't know what it is.

But just the feeling of losing several times a season because of overtime was enough to convince me to give up unders.
 
Good luck on the rest of it this weekend

Man miss those days at the granfalloon watching football all day on the Plaza then doing something regretful at night
 
I kind of like Colorado in that game. I have a feeling I might be undervaluing psu but I don't see any value with them this week.
 
Adds

UVA/Pitt Under 49.5
Georgia/Florida Under 44.5
Penn St/Ohio State under 57.5
GT/Clemson under 50
Okst/WVU Under 73
Missouri/Uconn over 76
utah/Oregon Over 48

Teasers
TCU-1/SDSU -2
 
I think the Tulsa celebration call in last nights game was one of the worst calls you will ever see as a college football fan. It was beyond ridiculous.
 
vk said:
I think the Tulsa celebration call in last nights game was one of the worst calls you will ever see as a college football fan. It was beyond ridiculous.
Click to expand...

Happened to Iowa this year too. I've seen it in others. Hate the rule. But if it is the rule you have to coach your players not to do it.
 
The rule itself is horrific. That is one thing, S--K. The application of it on that play was borderline insanity.
 
vk said:
I think the Tulsa celebration call in last nights game was one of the worst calls you will ever see as a college football fan. It was beyond ridiculous.
Click to expand...

Yeah, he just very briefly started to strut and then just finished the run into the end zone. You have to be really reaching to make that call.

If you're going to penalize anyone on that play, call something against the SMU players for masquerading as DBs.
 
Sorry in n out, I wasn't around.

Days like today make you question everything about investing in these kids.
 
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