time to post my week 8 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
week 1 17-15
week 2 13-7
week 3 16-17
week 4 10-16
week 5 15-8
week 6 17-15
week 7 15-9
overall 103-87

Ok almost where I would hope to be at this point in the year and hopefully grind out a few wins this week. There may be one or two plays this week that you don't normally see me play. I went where the facts led me. And I will have a couple additions tomorrow.

309/310 usf/temple under 60 (+) loser0-1
311 Oregon 3 push
315/316 Army/unt over 50 1-1
317/318 emu/wmu under 59 1-2
359/360 UCF/Uconn under 48 2-2
323 ecu 2 2-3
321 rutgers 19 3-3
321/322 rutgers/minn over 44 4-3
327 Indiana 2 4-4
327/328 ind/nw over 52.5 4-5
325 tcu 6.5 4-6
333/334 wiscy/iowa under 42.5 5-6
344 FIU 17 -115 5-7
339/340 cmu/toledo under 62 6-7
341 akron 3.5 7-7
345/346 haw/afa under 61.5 8-7
383 UTEP 9.5 9-7
385 old dom 14 -118 9-8
393/394 mtsu/missouri over 72 10-8
401/402 ark/aub under 55.5 10-9
Texas -1 10-10
TAMU/BAMA Under 60.5 11-10
memphis/navy under 59 11-11
north texas 18 12-11
houston -21 12-12
ecu/cinci over 64 12-13
oklahomo -13.5 12-14
Oklahomo/Texas Tech over 85 (I believe the highest totaled game I have ever bet over on) 13-14
2h usf -4.5 loser 13-15



 
Last edited:
Kyle - BOL this week. I have been wrestling with Missouri side or over or both, played USF/Temp under, and was leaning towards Army over.
 
309/310 usf/temple under 60 (+)
311 Oregon 3
315/316 Army/unt over 50
317/318 emu/wmu under 59
359/360 UCF/Uconn under 48
323 ecu 2
321 rutgers 19
321/322 rutgers/minn over 44
327 Indiana 2
327/328 ind/nw over 52.5
325 tcu 6.5
333/334 wiscy/iowa under 42.5
344 FIU 17 -115
339/340 cmu/toledo under 62
341 akron 3.5
345/346 haw/afa under 61.5
383 UTEP 9.5
385 old dom 14 -118
393/394 mtsu/missouri over 72
401/402 ark/aub under 55.5
 
Timh said:
Kyle - BOL this week. I have been wrestling with Missouri side or over or both, played USF/Temp under, and was leaning towards Army over.
Click to expand...

Well, there won't be too many games this year that have more plays than that Missouri MTSU game and from what I have seen from Mizz this year, the OC is not going to slow down when up big. MTSU more likely to be behind so clock stoppages galore there if so since they throw, throw and then throw it some more. I leaned Mizz too because while their defense is way down year over year, they are still considerably superior to what the raiders are gonna put out there.

The Army over is more sketchy imo given whenever you have an academy over you have to be ready for the 6 minute drive where they are going for it on fourth and two at the opposing 18 yard line. I think the Army secondary is their weakest link on the team after WR and I actually think UNT can exploit that well. I have seen some UNT and they are not as bad against the run as some might think they are but Army executing at a high level. Would like to see both teams with chunk plays and I thinnk we will. I will probably be adding UNT side today
 
I was with you on the WMU under last week. It's hard to stomach another under play on them again. 1st half they come out like gang busters and then according to the score at half, they can slow tempo or bury a team. Still looking at that one. GL!
 
It will be a great game to NOT watch if you like proper blocking, tackling, strategy, or are a football purist in any other meaningful way.
 
Any thoughts on the following?

The total in the Indiana/NW is seemingly set awfully low @ 52.5. Surely I am missing something here.

Being a west coast guy, any thoughts on SJSU @ SDSU tonight?
 
wiseplayer said:
I was with you on the WMU under last week. It's hard to stomach another under play on them again. 1st half they come out like gang busters and then according to the score at half, they can slow tempo or bury a team. Still looking at that one. GL!
Click to expand...


Seems like a good spot. I am not sure a team has been better at creating their "game" so far this year than Western Michigan. They seem set up to stop what Eastern Michigan likes to do and Western Michigan has been pretty efficient on offense and probably does a bit of damage in this game too ... but hard to be a ton more efficient than they have shown to date. If Wmich comes out and puts up a 56 ... sure, we lose .. and it is possible.
 
C-MAN said:
Any thoughts on total in Oregon/Cal? 89 is pretty high
Click to expand...


I wanted to bet the over. I couldn't do it but I wouldn't touch that under with a ten foot pole. Oregon Secondary and Cal Tackling leave a lot to be desired ... Of course ... totals that high cannot survive very many failed opportunities
 
Jimmydafreak said:
Any thoughts on the following?

The total in the Indiana/NW is seemingly set awfully low @ 52.5. Surely I am missing something here.

Being a west coast guy, any thoughts on SJSU @ SDSU tonight?
Click to expand...

I don't think so. Market doesn't seem to be caught up with the actual pace that Northwestern is running their offense at. Have to admit that I wasn't entirely caught up with the first couple weeks of the year either.

SDSU game seems lined and totaled pretty accurately. No worthwhile opinion and when it comes to those two teams, my opinion would have brought better results this year if you just faded it.
 
Today's Adds:

Texas -1
TAMU/BAMA Under 60.5
memphis/navy under 59
north texas 18
houston -21
ecu/cinci over 64
oklahomo -13.5
Oklahomo/Texas Tech over 85 (I believe the highest totaled game I have ever bet over on)
 
AliShaheed said:
Any leans toward a side in that Bama game?

Good luck this week.
Click to expand...

I lean tamu ... if tamu cannot compete with them then they are a true monster .... which they probably are. Concern is Knight when they fall behind and the second and third level tackling. I think their DL matches up as well as anyone can to the bama oline ..... If tamu commits to stopping rbs and qb running then it takes that kid throwing to cover the big number and that might be tough for bama .... but tamu has to play clean offense and tackle bama guys when they have it in space behind the dl.
 
bama playcalling in these spots with Kiffin has been insanely good too which would worry me.
 
Let me explain the above comment .. most people know because i have said it a lot over the years that I ask myself some simple questions when capping cfb that are a little different than nfl ... what does team A like to do when they have the ball? Can team B stop it? And in most college programs if you stop what they like to do, you stop them because they have either recruited players specific to their style or have engineered their offense to get their limited talent the ball as much as possible. most teams cannot adjust their style in a week in cfb ... certainly most cannot in the game itself. Bama is different ... It is a pre-rookie pro team which plays with balance .... which means that when you take away their preference (usually the run with bama) they can change their strategy to attack you another way with loads of talent to do it. Seems Kiffin has done a good job developing gameplans (particularly in big games against good opponents) heading into the game and saban/kiffin seem good at halftime adjustments as well (teams get worn down too late).

For this game, and any game going forward this year for bama .. if i am the opposing DC I am taking my chances with tide throwing though
 
bull said:
You surprise me with utep. A homer call?
Click to expand...

Fella involved in the point shaving scandal plead guilty today ...

But no .. UTSA just shouldn't be laying this imo ....335 yards in last years game ... averaging 369 a game this year. They have played all of one good game all year offensively and UTEP off a bye. And I think there are not very many possessions in this game which helps the dog. Always a chance UTEP defense gets destroyed but if that happens off a bye against this offense then you just take the loss and go about the rest of your day. I also think Metz will give this team a needed energy boost offensively and the miners are by far the healthiest they have been as a team all year.
 
clowncar said:
I don't think so. Market doesn't seem to be caught up with the actual pace that Northwestern is running their offense at. Have to admit that I wasn't entirely caught up with the first couple weeks of the year either.

SDSU game seems lined and totaled pretty accurately. No worthwhile opinion and when it comes to those two teams, my opinion would have brought better results this year if you just faded it.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the input. I think I'm going t take a flyer on the Indy/NW OVER. I also think SJSU will really struggle to score tonight.
 
Temple converting every third down. USF can do whatever they want to this Temple D (total is probably dead) but just haven't had the ball. Doubt Walker to bryant continues at that pace either.
 
Look to be just wrong on the total but still room to get lucky there. don't think there was a failed scoring opportunity in the first half .. so get two of those and we might win the total
 
aplous said:
With you on TCU and OU.....health on Oregon and Horns. Have a good weekend.
Click to expand...

thanks for the first six words.

Grats on me taking horns against you guys ... i do it almost every year.

Taking Ou because I think the sooners score at will
 
Taking Oregon cause they gonna run all over cal ... maybe.

And took TCU because I think the teams are relatively even and generally play close games.
 
OU scores at will for sure. Their pass D a bit suspect but I like the "Mayfield rubbing it in Kingsbury's face" angle too much to pass on.

K-State offense is so shitty it is unreal. Nearly unwatchable but the D has some playmakers and we seem to take a kick or punt back for a TD every home game.
 
How about the Id-App St over 53? Where has the App St O gone? Just 41 pts combined the last 2 weeks...no 2nd half pts last week vs ULL.

If they are "right" App might get close to the over themselves...got to figure they will score on Id? Cox is supposed to be back, practiced this week for first time in a while. If things go "wrong" maybe Idaho can score a bit too and contribute more towards the total than otherwise might figure them to. Or maybe the App St D is too good for that. Idaho has hit a rhythm the last 2 weeks on O, but take a big step up here admittedly.

Rare earlier KO for Vandals. Just read it will be cold and windy, perhaps very windy.

2015 47-20 (no Cox, but Moore had 244)
2014 45-28 (also cold, read it had "minimal wind")
 
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