Time to post my week 7 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Went a solid 4-1 last week with South Carolina , Ole Miss, under sdsu at csu , and Penn State. My loser was Rutgers. With 4 in the bag and a 10 point halftime leadat rutgers , I thought there was a chance of sweeping my card but cincinnati proved to be the better team that night and really controlled the second half. As some of you know , I had the pleasure of flying out and catching the Texas/oklahomos game. It was an incredible game and I had a blast the entire weekend with my friends. Thanks again , texasfight. The downside to my vacationing was that I am considerably behind again this week as far as my capping is concerned. I have done considerable work but have not finished analyzing all the details of these games yet. As of monday night , I have yet to make a play but here is the short list that I am targeting ... again pending some details that need to be checked.

Locked in :
Baylor +25.5 added oct 9
Arkansas -2.5 added oct 9
ECU/UTEP under 66 added oct 9
Fresnost/Idaho under 57.5 added oct 9
south carolina -6.5 added oct 11

MIDDLE ATTEMPT
Navy/pittsburgh under 54.5 $110 to win $100, over 51.5 $110 to win $100
LOSER (-$10.00)game fell 93 !

Strong leans :

South Carolina -6 added to plays oct 11
Louisville +10.5 eliminated oct 9
Baylor +25.5 added to plays oct 9
Arkansas -3 added to plays oct 9
Nebraska -4 eliminated oct 10
Iowa +3.5 eliminated oct 9
TCU -5 eliminated oct 10
Virginia -3 eliminated oct 9

talk me offs

SJSU +18.5 eliminated oct 11
TAMU +9 eliminated oct 9 returned to talk me offs oct11elim.oct12
Oregon -18 eliminated oct 9
Notre Dame +14 eliminated oct 9
 
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Holy smokes. Everyone is on SC. I'm with ETG and starting to wonder WTF is up with this line. I think I like TCU if it would come down a bit.

Virginia? You're better than that...

Notre Dame? Stop it, Kyle. Come in off the ledge, please. You're scaring me...
 
my weekly quick blurbs of these games...

South Carolina -6 -- really confused why south Carolina gets no respect. The showing against LSU was not horrendous and according to the polls they have the highest quality loss of any one loss team. They go on the road and win at Georgia , beat a solid offensive team in kentucky , beat a decent team in mississippi state .... I just do not understand why the linesmakers are not believers yet. I am. South Carolina is basically Virginia Tech and Miami Florida ... except they have an offense to go along with a defense. Whenever I see a line that smells fishy ..... it means I need to bet it. As withe very other possible bet I ahve not completed the totality of my capping but I think this will likely be played.

Louisville +10.5 -- not sure I really want to step in front of the spread covering train that is cincinnati right now. But this line looks to be a bit high to me. The cards will have both stud receivers in the lineup this week. A few weeks ago Louisville is laying almost a td on the road to media darling Kentucky and now they are getting 10.5 from the bearcats. ponderous.

Baylor +25.5 -- Too many. Baylor can score points in this game and whenever a 4 score dog or more can do that .... you have a good shot of covering. This line is way off by power rating , though kansas is admittedly one of the tougher teams to have rated at this point of the year. As far as spots go ..... this is a TERRIBLE spot for kansas. situational cappers must really like the bears in this one. Have to look at more but the early money is coming in on kansas so it appears I have time on this one.

Arkansas -3 -- They can score on anyone with McFadden and match up pretty well with auburn this year. I think Arkansas will be effective running the ball on auburn and I can't trust this particular auburn team to win two tough road games in three weeks in SEC play. mostly love the match ups on the field in this game.

Nebraska -4 --Assuming this team has not quit ( and that may be a bad assumption) this is simply incredible value in the line. PR makes this game a much larger deficit for okie state who has not exactly faired well on the road this year.

Iowa +3.5 -- Iowa plays some pretty decent defense at home Illini may be in a letdown travel spot. very tough place to go in and win .... especially win big. Hard for me to imagine Iowa getting spanked by Illinois in this game... looks like not only a tight game but a low scoring game to me .... like taking the 3.5 at home in those types of games. Still some details to iron out in capping this one as well. stay tuned.

TCU -5 -- Wow .... what a horrid situation for stanford this week. confidence will be high ... concentration will not be. Meanwhile, TCU off a loss and a lousy 3-3 record has been seeing stanford highlights all week. Rare case where you get the better team focused I think and the lesser team unfocused. TCU defense should control the Tree in this one.

Virginia -3 -- First let me say that I think Uconn is one of the worst undefeated teams at this point in a season that I have seen in the last fifteen years. Starting rb for Virginia is banged up. Virginia has been a great bet at home this year and they are coming off a poor performance at mtsu. Great at stopping the run and uconn has not seen an animal like the cavaliers yet this year. I would actually be shocked to see uconn pull out a win here .... makes -3 look gifty. Uconn has a very highly ranked statistical defense right now but I think we could all safely laugh at anyone who thought they actually had a better defense than virginia.

San Jose State -- have not capped this game yet . it is on my talk me off leans list because there is a disparity between the line and my power ratings. WAC games are some of my later ones to complete.

TAMU +9 --- I don't feel good unless texas tech takes my money once a month. I think TAMU rush offense vs Texas Tech rush defense is almost as large a mismatch as redraider pass attack vs tamu pass defense. TAMU will have no fear of any new defensive schemes as they just run their option attack and dare you to stop it. This thing has over written all over it ... willbe curious to see the total.

Oregon -18 must be chomping at the bit to get out there and play in front of the home crowd that they disappointed in the CAL game. Washington State has a swiss cheese defense ( that's what i ahve called it all year so why stop now? ) and Dixon and company like cheese. Wazzu has some talent on offense but they can't keep up with oregon here.

notre dame +14 -- seems kind of high don't you think ?? irish youngsters are definitely getting better each week. please talk me off this game. I am begging. This is another game that I really haven't looked at yet in detail but where my power ratings and the line are in disagreement. hopefully after completing capping i can eliminate this game because my gut tells me that BC bitch slaps them.

just some quick thoughts to get conversations started. good luck this week folks.
 
gl VK..

I just don't know how anyone can take Iowa right now, your betting on a shitty team who has no playmakers. Illinois is Indiana on steroids and Indiana crushed Iowa. Illinois has a good defense, tackles well. The only way Iowa wins or covers is becasue of turnovers or if Zook fucks up...just one man's opinion.
 
no way in hell ILLY should be #18 right now. that is a laugher. id say we are right outside the 25.

gl this weekend.
 
counselor -- believe me , i don't want to be on the edge.

huntdog -- i agree with you to an extent... and i have some questions about how motivated the hawkeyes can be as their season is a bit of a steaming pile at this point.... but as I said last week when i bet against iowa ... that indiana score is a bit deceiving. Not deceiving in that the hoosiers should have won but deceiving in that it was not a crushing on the field. iowa had 5 more firstdowns than indiana and actually outgained indiana as well. besides outgaining the hoosiers by 30 yards or so you have to remember that 71 yards of the hoosiers production in that game came off that funky fumble recovery by lewis who zoomed down the sideline for a score. Iowa also missed two field goals in that one and were victimized by 9 penalties. As i said, not finished capping it yet..
 
vegaskyle - I'm with HUNT there bro. The Hawkeyes have little to no offense, and they'll be facing a very stingy defense. At the very least, Mendenhal should have some success. I don't mind laying a field goal when I've got the team with a better rushing offense and superior rush defense. Also helps to have incredible playmakers like Benn, and even Williams on occasion.

Also leaning somewhat to South Carolina myself.

GL bro!

:cheers:
 
vegaskyle said:
counselor -- believe me , i don't want to be on the edge.

huntdog -- i agree with you to an extent... and i have some questions about how motivated the hawkeyes can be as their season is a bit of a steaming pile at this point.... but as I said last week when i bet against iowa ... that indiana score is a bit deceiving. Not deceiving in that the hoosiers should have won but deceiving in that it was not a crushing on the field. iowa had 5 more firstdowns than indiana and actually outgained indiana as well. besides outgaining the hoosiers by 30 yards or so you have to remember that 71 yards of the hoosiers production in that game came off that funky fumble recovery by lewis who zoomed down the sideline for a score. Iowa also missed two field goals in that one and were victimized by 9 penalties. As i said, not finished capping it yet..
Click to expand...

That's just it...Iowa has played very sloppy football this season. Lots of penalties, and they give up a ton of sacks.
 
Aztec--Poor iowa getting no love. haha. well i had indiana against them two weeks ago and cashed and had penn state against them last week and cashed again. I am certainly not in love with their football team right now. keep the iowa hate mail coming. I am taking a break from the boards for a few hours to get some of this work done. promise to respond to each and every post that comes in later. lets win some money this week.
 
I think Illinois will cover this week because they run the ball well and do not really pass and Iowa prefers you pass. Plus, Illinois has beaten two much better teams the last two weeks and they know they need this game for respect. And ND only won cause of seven turnovers, and I don't think Matt Ryan is gonna have any trobule with this team. Plus, I expect this young team to celebrate the win in UCLA then come home and get trounced. And I never like covering more than 2 TD in conference games, so I would avoid Oregon. And Louisville, did you see how bad they looked against Utah and Kentucky??? I love UVA, SC and TCU though,
 
kyle,

I think points will be at a premium in the South Carolina vs. North Carolina game, that 6 points could be a lot more to cover than people expect if this thing becomes a defensive battle...also, Auburn is playing some really good football right now, their offensive line is playing a lot better, as is Cox and Lester is back healthy at RB...Arkansas has been sluggish in their last two games and McFadden has a rib injury, not to mention a fumbling problem of late...Dick still can't seem to be very accurate...lastly, I've watched Connecticut now four times, they are a very good football team and will give Virginia everything they can handle...GL to you this week...
 
vegaskyle said:
South Carolina -6 -- really confused why south Carolina gets no respect. The showing against LSU was not horrendous and according to the polls they have the highest quality loss of any one loss team. They go on the road and win at Georgia , beat a solid offensive team in kentucky , beat a decent team in mississippi state .... I just do not understand why the linesmakers are not believers yet. I am. South Carolina is basically Virginia Tech and Miami Florida ... except they have an offense to go along with a defense. Whenever I see a line that smells fishy ..... it means I need to bet it. As withe very other possible bet I ahve not completed the totality of my capping but I think this will likely be played.
Click to expand...

Don't understand the line at all. Curious, what do your PowerRankings make this line?
 
I do not understand SC -6 either, but I am sure looking at it.

Arkansas -3: On paper, this game makes sense. Your reasoning about McFadden having his way, and Auburn trying to play 2nd SEC road game in three weeks. Also, there is the look ahead factor going for Auburn, as they travel to Baton Rouge for LSU on Oct 20. But, with all my studies of SEC football over the past six seasons, there are intangibles that we are not accounting for that Auburn possesses. I cannot fathom Auburn losing this game because I can say with supreme confidence that Auburn gets 2nd in the SEC West this season. Again, I cannot talk you out of this bet, because my only argument is a gut feeling, but reconsider.

GL kyle
 
Blue_Chip said:
I do not understand SC -6 either, but I am sure looking at it.

Arkansas -3: On paper, this game makes sense. Your reasoning about McFadden having his way, and Auburn trying to play 2nd SEC road game in three weeks. Also, there is the look ahead factor going for Auburn, as they travel to Baton Rouge for LSU on Oct 20. But, with all my studies of SEC football over the past six seasons, there are intangibles that we are not accounting for that Auburn possesses. I cannot fathom Auburn losing this game because I can say with supreme confidence that Auburn gets 2nd in the SEC West this season. Again, I cannot talk you out of this bet, because my only argument is a gut feeling, but reconsider.

GL kyle
Click to expand...

I agree with BC here. Auburn turned it around, and fast.
 
GL this week VK - hope you enjoyed the game.

I agree on all of your strong leans except Arkansas, though I have the Razorbacks rated extremely low. I am also in the minority that likes Iowa.

Also, Boston College is my 2nd biggest play of the year. I thought the line would be at least 17. Look at the UCLA/ND box score. 11 random CTGers could have beaten UCLA on Saturday.
 
Dmoney416 said:
GL this week VK - hope you enjoyed the game.

I agree on all of your strong leans except Arkansas, though I have the Razorbacks rated extremely low. I am also in the minority that likes Iowa.

Also, Boston College is my 2nd biggest play of the year. I thought the line would be at least 17. Look at the UCLA/ND box score. 11 random CTGers could have beaten UCLA on Saturday.
Click to expand...

I am pretty confident about that.


I am loving BC as well guys.
 
Really love the input from everyone this week.

kobe --after last nights capping cram session i actually eliminated all 3 games that you had issue with as possible plays. louisville inconsistency is more of a concern when they lay 10-11 though , this time they are getting. But it did not meet my requirements for a bet.

pags -- on paper the gamecocks should score on n carolina who has given up over 400 yards 3 times already this year and this is by far the best offense that n carolina has faced this year. in addition north carolina has failed to run with success against basically anyone with all of their yards generally coming through the air. south carolina has a very effective pass defense. N carolina has faced one decent offensive line this year when they played virginia and virginia consistently ran the ball down their throats in that game. I like S carolina from a match up stand point and i really don't see them unprepared or looking past the tarheels in this one after tarheels upset miami last week. btw miami had over 400 yards of offense at north carolina last week. yup ... miami. Why do you think s carolina struggles to score on this tarheel defense ?? laying close to a td on the road vs a half decent team who is getting better each week and gaining confidence is definitely a concern though. I think you are right that Auburn is playing their best ball of the year right now but I like the spot for Arkansas as well as the match up. Arkansas played well in defeating n texas two weeks back and then as you said above looked sluggish last week vs chattanooga. But they have basically had 3 weeks to prep for this game at home to auburn and auburn has LSU game looming on deck. Arkansas has failed to rush for over 300 yards just one time this year and did succeed at rushing for over 300 in both conference games this year at Bama and home to kentucky. Arkansas could actually be easily undefeated right now. they were the better team when they choked away the game vs kentucky and bama needed a big first half lead and last second td to beat them in tuscaloosa. Arkansas should be more rested and hungrier in this spot imo.

etg -- power ratings made the game a 12.

blue chip/aztec -- i hope what your brain tells you is better for me than what your gut is telling you. I have gone through every box score these two teams have played in this year, in addition to having seen each of them play several times. the statistics say that razorbacks are a play , the spot says they are a play , the match up factors say that they are a play. auburn has actually played a much tougher schedule than arkansas and my gut has some concerns just like yours does for this one. But my gut is often wrong and my capping system of fundamentals tends to be right more often than not. Aztec is right , it appears they ahve turned it around ..... but even if auburn has turned it around to what i thought they were preseason ( which was a solid club but an overrated one ) it still does not mesh with winning on the road vs an arkansas team that should be hungry, rested and more prepared.

Dmoney -- was not finished with that notre dame game and after examining the box score you mentioned above and the spot ... Notre Dame became a definite no play for me. I think you may be right about them celebrating just a bit this week too.

now to housekeeping

locked in arkansas and baylor today. S carolina , nebraska and tcu all remain on my strong leans list and i eliminated all but sjsu from my talk me offs. hoping public pounds hawaii ( midweek game for degenerates who love good teams ) all the way up to 21 or something so that i can play that one.
 
Virginia is a bit banged up and especially at rb , peerman has been their best offensive player so far this year and he has a hurt ankle. if he plays it wont be at a 100 percent. Connecticut is off a bye too and after what i saw glenn do to virginia offense after ahving time to prepare,i have to worry about edsall as well... very underrated coach. i still think virginia gets the cash but after deducting the injuries it didn't meet my criteria for putting my money on it. see a 2.5 anywhere ?? hehe
 
TAMU +9 --- I don't feel good unless texas tech takes my money once a month. I think TAMU rush offense vs Texas Tech rush defense is almost as large a mismatch as redraider pass attack vs tamu pass defense. TAMU will have no fear of any new defensive schemes as they just run their option attack and dare you to stop it. This thing has over written all over it ... willbe curious to see the total.
Click to expand...

Are you concerned Coach Leach might take his foot off the gas and allow the backdoor, here?....
 
Have the opportunity of middling the total on the navy/pitt game. Not one hundred percent positive that this is mathematically a correct play but with only ten bucks of exposure, i'll take my chances.

Added middle bet
Navy/Pittsburgh under 54.5 $110 to win $100
Navy/Pittsburgh over 51.5 $110 to win $100
 
TAMU should move the ball at will on texas tech defense and the same holds true when tech offense is on the field. too bad the total is in the area of 70 as i would be on the over at any reasonable number. I am using an incredible amount of will power to not incorporate the word weasel in this post . DOH !
 
Well, the navy/pittsburgh game failed to middle for me. Coupled with the lsu game a few weeks back i am now 0-2 on these, down sixty bucks. Hopefully I hit one before years end. Records for that loss have already been updated.

In addition, I eliminated both TCU and Nebraska as possible plays this week. As with all games, drbob or some other line move can still create a play. However, as of now the only game that i have not played and have not eliminated is san jose state. ready to hear thoughts on this one. i have already digested our resident experts ( hawaiiguy ) analysis of this one and am ready to hear other thoughts. grats to those that had navy , navy ml and the over tonight.
 
Forgot about south carolina in the last post. i will likely be playing them today. i have yet to hear a legitimate argument as to why south carolina cannot cover this. In fact, the best argument i have heard for unc and the points on this board is that it should be a low scoring game and the
6-7 points will be valuable in that situation. Certainly there is validity to the concept of the lower the total .. the more important each point in the line is. But this match up seems to be all in favor of the gamecocks on the field and i doubt spurrier wants to give recruiting juggernaut butch davis fuel for future recruits. no chance at a look ahead. i can lose this bet and sleep well at night having made it. Only see three spots in town that still have a 6.5, so i guess i better get down on it today.
 
VK- I have yet to find a valid argument as well. I see a bunch of "94% of bets on SC and the line dropped so let me get UNC+7" and that type of logic fuken kills me. It kills me because if UNC covers, they win their bet, and they never broke the game down, never looked at anything cept line movement and some gaudy public #'s which are suppose to represent the amount of bets placed on a side. It kills me because I have looked at every possible angle in this game and I just don't see it. At this point, I too can go to sleep making this bet 100 out of 100 times, if I lose so be it. My boys are ready, I'm confident in that. I do think next week Vandy could have some value if this week goes as planned. A SC romp of UNC will have the team feeling good. Vandy is sandwiched inbetween this Border Battle and Tennessee which could be the game to decide the East. I think it sets up for a Carolina win that is sloppy, it is also a 12:30 game and we are not always sharp at that time. Crowd is less energetic as well. A poor played game and a win by SC will have them going into Tennessee with something to prove again and Spurrier will break them down that week to build them back up saying how they are not a good team, they must improve, ETC.
 
south carolina pass attack vs north carolina pass defense --adv usc clear
south carolina rush attack vs north carolina rush defense --adv usc clear
unc pass attack vs usc pass defense -- adv usc clear
unc rush attack vs usc rush defense -- push
special teams --adv unc small
coaching -- adv usc small
homefield -- adv unc
intangibles -- adv usc

what am i missing ? riding your boys again etg .... they better not let me down.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
has he ever took his foot off the gas?
Click to expand...

That was tongue placed heavily in cheek, there, ETG. I think I remember reading something once that Kyle didn't like Leach, and it may have had something to do with him throwing on 4th down in a game they were up 30+ points with less than :30 left in the game...but he is the President of the fan club, so maybe my memory does fail me...
 
counselor said:
That was tongue placed heavily in cheek, there, ETG. I think I remember reading something once that Kyle didn't like Leach, and it may have had something to do with him throwing on 4th down in a game they were up 30+ points with less than :30 left in the game...but he is the President of the fan club, so maybe my memory does fail me...
Click to expand...



:cheers:
 
Reminds me a lot of Purdue/ND a couple weeks ago. People couldn't really come up with a legit argument to bet the Irish - so they all threw down on Purdue. Sure enough, ND got the cover.

I lean to SC too of course, but I just wouldn't mess with it because it's so fishy.
 
I just can't resist. I am pretty sure we score 30+, I am pretty sure they score 21 or less.
 
Added south carolina -6.5 (rampart/cannery). The bait is on the hook and i am biting i guess.

eliminated san jose state.

TAMU was put back onto my talk me offs as drbob moved the line making this a game i need to look at again with the new value.
 
If you heard what Jovorski Lane said, there's no way in hell you'd bet TAMU...

"We are going to win. It's a guarantee. I promise you."

Bad idea...
 
omg ... the kiss of death .... a player guarantee. Lane is not just big and fat ... he is a big fat moron to boot. Why in the hell would he do that when this team has been bitch slapped a lot recently in lubbock ? I am sure he will dominate texas Tech just like he did when they traveled to Miami and dominated the hurricanes. cough cough.
 
TAMU's screwed. Fran's newsletter has made it a near certainty that he's gone after this year. Noway to bet the aggies here.
 
ok , eliminated TAMU again today lol. Too much going on here.

-tamu plays bad in lubbock
-tamu cannot defend the pass
-coach fran scandal
-lane guarantee
-leach love of running it up
-second road game of year , first was debacle at miami fl
-my big 12 expert says it is a no play

Still think TAMU can run at will on tech but it may not be enough and if they fall behind too much early can they still grind it out ? Besides I don't want to have a rant thread after the game when Leach has them throw a hail mary pass up 9 with :01 second left on the clock.

That should wrap up my card this week. Not nearly as confident this week as last but hopefully the stars align and a winning day appears before my eyes. Good luck to all of you and I want to thank each and every person who contributed to my thread this week. lots of great information by cappers that I respect a lot that helped me along the way this week to make what i think are the best decisions with all available information. I am definitely concerned that the pags , dmoneys , and lindetrains of the world are staying clear of the s carolina fishy line, as they are all excellent at this cfb betting but i think i have made more money betting on fishy lines than i have shook my head afterwards .... so I will be giving the " I should have listened to you guys" speech on sunday. Again , best of luck this week folks !
 
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