time to post my week 6 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Week five 38-33 +1.7 units
Overall 146-143 -11.3 units

Well squeaked over .500 for the year but still down quite a bit. I had a chance at a really big week but struggled mightily in the last 4 minutes of games. The only loss that really bothered me was the Oregon State side which was obviously a really good bet. What it took to lose that bet in the fourth quarter was mind numbing. I got pretty upset with the Memphis game but in retrospect, Fritz just figured out what to do against Memphis. Also, it was the second time that team under performed in wet weather .. something to consider next time they play in it. I have played a lot already. I bolded the bigger investments


Georgia State at Troy (Ga State +17, over 57) Push Push 0-0
Tulsa at Houston (Tulsa 17, over 68 2h houston -7.5, 2h over 34 ) winner, loser, winner winner 3-1
Georgia Tech at Louisville (GT -3 -115, Over 57.5) winner winner 5-1
MTSU at Marshall (MTSU 7, Under 53) winner loser 6-2
Utah State at BYU (Utah State 2, Over 54.5, 2h under 24,5 -115) winner winner loser 8-3

Alabama at Arkansas (over 61) winner 9-3
Oklahoma vs Texas (Under 60.5) loser 9-4
ECU at Temple (ECU 11.5, over 55) loser push 9-5
EMU at WMich (Under 61) winner 10-5
Tulane at Cincinnati (Under 52.5) loser 10-6
Buffalo at Cmich (Buffalo -7 -120) winner 11-6
Illinois at Rutgers (Illini -3, over 50.5) winner winner 13-6
Kansas at WVU (wvu -27.5) losers 13-7
Northwestern at Michigan State (Northwestern 11.5, Over 48) winner push 14-7
Missouri at South Carolina (over 64.5, mizz -1.5) winner loser 15-8
Maryland at Michigan (under 53) loser 15-9
Cuse at Pitt (Cuse -6 oops, Over 59) loser winner 16-10
Boston College at NCSU (NCstate -4, may buy out depending on BC RB and other factors) winner 17-10
NIU at Ball State (Ball State 3.5, over 50.5) loser loser 17-12
SDSU at Boise State (under 51) winner 18-12
Navy at AFA (under 49.5) winner 19-12
South Alabama at Ga Southern (S bama 14, over 53) loser winner 20-13
Miami Ohio at Akron (MOH 3.5) winner 21-13
Clemson at Wake Forest (over 62) winner 22-13
USF at Umass (USF -13.5, over 70.5) winner winner 24-13
ISU at Oklahoma State (Ok st -10.5) loser 24-14
Ohio at Kent State (Ohio -12.5, over 69.5) loser loser 24-16
FSU at Florida State (Miami -12.5) 24-17
Kansas State at Baylor (Kstate 4.5, under 55) winner loser 25-18
Iowa at Minnesota (Under 42.5 gulp) loser 25-19 wtf?
LSU at Florida (Under 44) loser 25-20
Bowling Green at Toledo (Over 73.5) winner 26-20
Indiana at Ohio State (Indiana 25, over 62.5) winner winner 28-20
UNM at UNLV (Under 61) loser 28-21
ASU at Colorado (Colorado -2.5, over 61.5) winner loser 29-22
ULM at Ole Miss (Not betting it) 29-22
ODU at FAU (Fau -15, over 68) winner winner 31-22
UAB at LaTech (LaTech -9) loser 31-23
kentucky at TAMU (Tamu -5.5) winner 32-23
Uconn at Memphis (uconn 35, over 77) loser loser 32125
SMU at UCF (SMU 24) 32-26
ULL at Texas State (ULL -3) 33-26
UTSA at Rice (Rice -2.5) 33-37
Washington at UCLA (Washington -21) 33-28
Auburn at Miss State (Miss St 3.5, over 44.5) winner loser 34-29
UNT at UTEP (UNT -25.5) 34-30
Vandy at UGA (Vandy 26.5) 34-31
Nebraska at Wisconsin (Nebraska 21, Nebraska ML 0.5 units at +850) 35-31
Liberty at NMSU (not betting it) 35-31
Notre Dame at VT (Ndame -5.5) 36-31
Washington State at Oregon State (Oregon St 17) 36-32
California at Arizona (Under 55) 37-32
Colorado State at SJSU (Not betting it) 37-32
Utah at Stanford (Utah +5) 38-32
Fresno State at Nevada (-14) 39-32
Wyoming at Hawaii (Wyoming 3.5)
 
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Georgia State at Troy (Ga State +17, over 57)
Tulsa at Houston (Tulsa 17, over 68)
Georgia Tech at Louisville (GT -3 -115, Over 57.5)
MTSU at Marshall (MTSU 7, Under 53)
Utah State at BYU (Utah State 2, Over 54.5)
Alabama at Arkansas (over 61)
Oklahoma vs Texas (Under 60.5)
ECU at Temple (ECU 11.5, over 55)
EMU at WMich (Under 61)
Tulane at Cincinnati (Under 52.5)
Buffalo at Cmich (Buffalo -7 -120)
Illinois at Rutgers (Illini -3, over 50.5)
Northwestern at Michigan State (Northwestern 11.5, Over 48)
Missouri at South Carolina (over 64.5)
Maryland at Michigan (under 53)
Cuse at Pitt (Cuse -6 oops, Over 59)
Boston College at NCSU (NCstate -4, may buy out depending on BC RB and other factors)
NIU at Ball State (Ball State 3.5, over 50.5)
SDSU at Boise State (under 51)
Navy at AFA (under 49.5)
South Alabama at Ga Southern (S bama 14, over 53)
Miami Ohio at Akron (MOH 3.5)
Clemson at Wake Forest (over 62)
USF at Umass (USF -13.5, over 70.5)
ISU at Oklahoma State (Ok st -10.5)
Ohio at Kent State (Ohio -12.5, over 69.5)
FSU at Florida State (Miami -12.5)
Kansas State at Baylor (Kstate 4.5, under 55)
Iowa at Minnesota (Under 42.5 gulp)
LSU at Florida (Under 44)
Bowling Green at Toledo (Over 73.5)
Indiana at Ohio State (Indiana 25, over 62.5)
UNM at UNLV (Under 61)
ASU at Colorado (Colorado -2.5, over 61.5)
ODU at FAU (Fau -15, over 68)
UAB at LaTech (LaTech -9)
Uconn at Memphis (uconn 35, over 77)
SMU at UCF (SMU 24)
ULL at Texas State (ULL -3)
UTSA at Rice (Rice -2.5)
Washington at UCLA (Washington -21)
Auburn at Miss State (Miss St 3.5, over 44.5)
UNT at UTEP (UNT -25.5)
Vandy at UGA (Vandy 26.5)
Nebraska at Wisconsin (Nebraska 21, Nebraska ML 0.5 units at +850)
Notre Dame at VT (Ndame -5.5)
California at Arizona (Under 55)
Utah at Stanford (Utah +5)
Wyoming at Hawaii (Wyoming 3.5)
 
I think the only massive blunder I made in my bets was cuse at -6 which has since moved to -4 at a few spots. Some other totals i was late to the party on but I of course like them at what I got them at too. But I obviously missed out on some really good chances for edges. Harp on it every week but I am ashamed by it.

Best of luck to all. I will try and find a little time this week to share thoughts, though a lot of them may appear in other peoples threads, even if not in here.
 
RetroVK said:
Nebraska at Wisconsin (Nebraska 21, Nebraska ML 0.5 units at +850)
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giphy.gif
 
Running clock, limited possessions, for the UNM-UNLV under, or UNM just not contributing?
 
RetroVK said:
QB injuries and running clock. I don't think either defense is necessarily something you can rely on.
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Thanks, I missed some of the QB news.

Also, if you have the chance your feedback or thoughts on the PRs over in the MOT thread would be greatly appreciated.
 
I think I might get why you like Nebraska a little. I think Nebraska is going to be a team that plays better at home than away though. And I am guessing this is just as much about betting against Wisconsin as it is betting on Nebraska is that correct?
 
I like South Bama too. Can't understand Georgia Southern laying that many.
 
AliShaheed said:
Thoughts on ASU/Colorado and Utah/Stan?

ASU creeping up at +3 now and thinking about playing that side.
Click to expand...


I can forgive ASU who was about ten pts better than Oregon State at home last week despite the final score due to that being a really bad spot for them but I think their defense is a little overrated at this point. Check it out opponents vs other fbs

UTSA 220 - UTSA
Michigan State 377 - MSU 452 vs Utah state, 350 against Indiana and 345 against central Michigan
San Diego State 440 - SDSU 263 at Stanford, 350 eastern michigan
Washington 373 - Washington 398 aub, 327 at Utah, 464 byu
Oregon State 406 - Oregon State 392 ohio state, 540 Nevada, 238 zona,

They gave up 261 on the ground to the beavers last week, 311 on the ground to SDSU and 171 to Washington. Colorado has a good offensive line and has a good QB to WR combo even if ASU rises up. Colorado will be one of the best and most balanced offenses they will have to defend and you are going from desert climate to altitude. Offensively, ASU is average statistically and above average when you adjust for quality of defenses faced. Colorado has really defended the pass well (yards per attempt are nice) so far this year and I don't think the devils can just line it up and pound the rock on Colorado in their own home. I did see open UCLA guys last week that DTR just couldn't throw accurate passes to so they may be more vulnerable than the pass stats show or even the eye test show but I think they match up nicely with ASU and should win the game by a TD or so. Both teams are playing with heart so far .. should be an entertaining game.

Still cannot figure out how Oregon State didn't cover.
 
RetroVK said:
I can forgive ASU who was about ten pts better than Oregon State at home last week despite the final score due to that being a really bad spot for them but I think their defense is a little overrated at this point. Check it out opponents vs other fbs

UTSA 220 - UTSA
Michigan State 377 - MSU 452 vs Utah state, 350 against Indiana and 345 against central Michigan
San Diego State 440 - SDSU 263 at Stanford, 350 eastern michigan
Washington 373 - Washington 398 aub, 327 at Utah, 464 byu
Oregon State 406 - Oregon State 392 ohio state, 540 Nevada, 238 zona,

They gave up 261 on the ground to the beavers last week, 311 on the ground to SDSU and 171 to Washington. Colorado has a good offensive line and has a good QB to WR combo even if ASU rises up. Colorado will be one of the best and most balanced offenses they will have to defend and you are going from desert climate to altitude. Offensively, ASU is average statistically and above average when you adjust for quality of defenses faced. Colorado has really defended the pass well (yards per attempt are nice) so far this year and I don't think the devils can just line it up and pound the rock on Colorado in their own home. I did see open UCLA guys last week that DTR just couldn't throw accurate passes to so they may be more vulnerable than the pass stats show or even the eye test show but I think they match up nicely with ASU and should win the game by a TD or so. Both teams are playing with heart so far .. should be an entertaining game.

Still cannot figure out how Oregon State didn't cover.
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Good points especially in regards to the altitude but my concern is that colorado has gotten fat off of weak competition as ucla and nebraska are absolutely dreadful.

I think ASU is a slight class up in talent level here for colorado...or at least a step up in the sense that ASU actually gives a shit about competing unlike ucla/neb.
 
UConn, Rice, Nebraska, Oregon St ? ?
Should I report you to Tahoe legend ?

Seriously, would you elaborate on Oregon St last week, please ? I know nothing other than I lost
 
I like Rice. Have to say last time I took them I got my ass kicked by Southern Miss. I figure it should be different vs UTSA.

UTSA isn't very good. I guess you could say their D is average in a CUSA kind of way, but they have one of the worst offenses in all of college football. Now perhaps one makes the case that facing a Rice D that will allow a bad O to have more success than normal. And that might be valid normally until you consider that UTSA just faced UTEP and Texas State the last 2 games....so they passed for 3.6 yards per attempt vs TSt and 5.3 vs UTEP, all while allowing TxSt O and UTEP O to both pass for 7.9 and 7.5 ypa respectively. They don't run it any better, 3.5 and 3.8 vs those Tx St and UTEP Ds. They only have 12 explosive plays of 20+y all year, that ranks 124th. Even Rice has had 23 such plays.

Rice likes to run and that is what UTSA D is better suited to stop. I thought Rice passing O was looking decent through 3 weeks, but has taken a step back vs SMiss and Wake Forest.

I think it is a case that Rice has shown some flashes on O vs some better teams. UTSA has shown nothing vs some bad teams.
 
Ha! I noticed that too, Bull.

I can understand Nebraska. I think they are better than their record and maybe Rice and Oregon St. They have all shown some life against some pretty good teams.

But I think UConn will set a record this year. They may be the first team to ever finish dead last in scoring defense, rush defense, and total defense. They are either last or next to last in all three and in the bottom five in pass defense, 1st down D, 3rd down D, fourth down D, (I guess that means their one strong point is second down) pass yards allowed, pass efficiency D, and turnover margin. No defense has ever been this bad in history.

On offense they are 15th from the bottom in scoring offense and four from the bottom in red zone offense, but at least the don't get many penalties.

They rank 90th in kickoff return defense although they get more practice at it than any other team in the country.

They have won 1 game ATS though so they showed they can do it. ( I'm going to have to look up which team they covered against and bet against them.)
 
I like that, 2nd down is UConn's strength!

The lone UConn cover would probably be vs Syracuse. I took them that day and pushed. In the hours leading up to the game the number was anywhere from 29-31. They lost by 30. Day of the Rhode Island game the line was anywhere from 7-9, they lost by 7. So a log could show them as 1-4 ATS, 1-3-1 ATS, 0-3-2 ATS or 0-5 ATS. At any rate, very weak team. I forget what I read, but they may be starting 8 or 9 true freshman with a bunch on D.
 
RetroVK said:
I luckboxed in both games. Nothing like making six investments, in which I should go 1-5 in a Just world, and going 3-1-2 instead.
Click to expand...
Didn't see anything tonight but consider it just evening the playing field from some earlier season bad beats.
 
I am also quite pleased with the movement on my larger investments this week. Since I posted Nebraska moved my way, GT moved my way, MTSU moved my way, emu/wmich moved my way, maryland/michigan moved my way, navy/afa moved my way, usf moved to a third score,

My other large investments sdsu/boise is right where i bet it, ohio/kent basically where i bet it, unlv/unm moved against me a pt but it is my favorite total of the week and super confident in it, indiana a pt worse in the dead number zone though ....

and Rice and the Cal/Zona under moved against me significantly. Oh well

Last time I felt this good about my line movement aggregate I got destroyed for the week but at least it gives me hope that I might still know what I am doing on at least some level.
 
adds

West Virginia -27.5 (small)
Fresno State -14
Texas A&M -5.5
Oregon State 17

I had planned on avoiding the West Virginia Kansas game but when it fell below the fourth extra pt I decided to put a little bit on it. Easily my least favorite play ... nothing like a negative line move to put something into range just barely .. those rarely work out it seems.
 
bull said:
UConn, Rice, Nebraska, Oregon St ? ?
Should I report you to Tahoe legend ?

Seriously, would you elaborate on Oregon St last week, please ? I know nothing other than I lost
Click to expand...

It was 38-24 early fourth Quarter.

Oregon State was second and goal from the 2 to cut it to a one score game and possibly be in contention for the big upset.
Then 3rd and goal from the 1 got stuffed.
Then they took a false start on fourth and goal from the 1 which forced them to pass on fourth and goal and they failed.

Asu went 94 yards for a TD
oregon State drives the ball again all the way to the ASU 32 and gets stopped on downs again
then with asu probably needing just one more first down for knees .. they throw on first and fifteen for a td.
orst fails on backdoor attempt

Went from thinking oregon state could win to losing a plus four score bet. It was like anyone who had tulsa 2h tonight. just brutal.

They ran for 261 yards on Arizona State. That's a running dog.. outgained by 150 but 50 of that came on that bologna play at the end.

Sick loss. Easily the most frustrating of the week for me
 
B.A.R. said:
I'll take a UNT/UTEP quick analysis if time permits.
Click to expand...

Basically looks like Fine is ok and Locksley isn't. Situationally like UNT off the loss. Issue will be pace and having enough possessions but I think UNT responds here. I could post stats too but it will be lopsided like most four score favorites are. Utep giving up 7.5 yards per attempt (bad competition) and unt getting 8.1 yards per attempt vs better competition. unt giving up just 3.02 yards per carry and have to imagine that at least while they are in the game the miners will try to run. Should be bad down and distance for the qb and unt leads nation with 10 interceptions. I do think utep can at least be competitive against the run in this game. But it has the makings of a blowout

Nice little twitter war between Aaron Jones and Jordan Leslie this week for us miner fans.
 
Gotta Eat said:
Thoughts on AM Kenfucky when you have a sec...
Click to expand...

I played TAMU, after looking the game over and being slightly swayed by some of the other people that I handicap with and respect. I think Kentucky is playing great ball and I think their defense is playing nasty. Their formula has been run Benny Snell and shut down the opponents long enough for him to make enough big runs to win the game. The problem in this match up is that the Aggies rush defense is really, really good. They gave up just 3.89 yards per carry to Alabama and just 3.59 yards per carry against Clemson. They are going to make the UK QB throw to beat them and it is very unclear whether he is up to the task. Moreover, TAMU brought in Jimbo to win games like this one. Aggies other home games were Clemson and a cupcake. They probably should have beat Clemson and so I have to think they find a way to win here. There would be no surprise if UK wins this game and plays tough defense and rides Snell. There isn't much data to say anything other than uk is what uk looks like ... a really good defensive team, a really good running attack, a lot of positive team chemistry with a lot of energy and team that believes in itself. This could be their one huge year, the way Kansas football had their one really big year. Aggies really struggled on offense against Arkansas last week as well. In what rates to be a low scoring game the 5.5 could seem like a lot. If it sounds like I don't have a ton of conviction in this bet, it is because I don't. Atmosphere should be amazing.
 
Just was looking back at South Alabama and I did not realize how uncompetitive they have been vs Georgia Southern. 52-0, 24-9, 55-17, 28-6 last 4 years. Do we know what experience the Central Arkansas coaching staff vs option type teams?
 
s--k said:
Just was looking back at South Alabama and I did not realize how uncompetitive they have been vs Georgia Southern. 52-0, 24-9, 55-17, 28-6 last 4 years. Do we know what experience the Central Arkansas coaching staff vs option type teams?
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I dont and without working knowlesge of fcs option teams it would be an undertaking for me
 
Yeah I box score capped it and said it makes sense... Then USU got run game going. After last year's fun I held off on this game oeriod but man I enjoy USU.
 
must be nice to bet an over and have one team score 9 more points than the total for the whole game!! lol
 
B.A.R. said:
Yeah I box score capped it and said it makes sense... Then USU got run game going. After last year's fun I held off on this game oeriod but man I enjoy USU.
Click to expand...

Felt like an under game all first half. The missed fg actually gave me a chance to avoid taking the obvious 2h under. Pretty sure same situation it wins a lot of the time. So it goes.
 
mr retroVK: Thank you Thank you for Georgia Tech, MTSU, and USU. Never would have played those without your input. A pure coattail on my part:shake:
 
Good morning peeps, im thinking michigan steam rolls maryland today, any thoughts, also any 5 star wages out there today. Im thinking michigan is mine
 
RetroVK said:
California at Arizona (Under 55)
Click to expand...

Kyle, did you see this? If Sumlin takes the reigns off Tate what do you think about the total? Side? I was leaning Az+ and this is giving me more confidence.

Khalil Tate - QB - Wildcats
Michael Lev of the Arizona Daily Star is "hearing from multiple sources" that Arizona is "contemplating an offensive changeup of sorts vs. Cal."
"Can't disclose what it is as it falls under the umbrella of strategy," he tweeted. "No guarantee it will happen either. But something to keep an eye on tonight." This isn't surprising -- Arizona has lost to all three legitimate opponents it has played this year and struggled mightily on offense while doing so -- but it sure is interesting. Wildcats junior QB Khalil Tate has badly regressed under the tutelage of supposed offensive guru Kevin Sumlin, completing 53.0% of his throws for 1,271 yards and only 69 rushing yards one year after rushing for 1,411 yards and completing 62.0% of his passes. The only positive signs in advance of a potential scheme alteration? Tate has posted a solid 10/3 TD/INT rate and his ypa is similar to last year, 8.53 in 2018 and 8.89 last year. We'll find out later against the Golden Bears whether Sumlin and crew indeed have a trick up their sleeves.

Source: Michael Lev on Twitter
Oct 6 - 2:14 PM
 
If it is pace related, then it is a problem. If it is personnel related i am happy. If it is first game in a new offense against cal i will take my chances. If it is same offnse withbtate allowed to go nuts then total might be in trouble
 
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