time to post my week 5 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Overall 108-110 -13.0 units

Well I finally had a posted winning week ..just before October hit. Unlike some prior weeks where I lost more than indicated by the posted stuff, I won more this past week than I had posted with some plays not making it to my thread (one was a disgusting over win that I deserved dang it) and with doing well on my bigger plays. Managed to sneak over .500 in the GN contest which means there is hope there if I can string together some winning weeks and get into the hunt. one of the participants in that thing is 18-2-1. Haha .. wow.

Also really quickly, apologies to Booksbestfriend as I normally respond to questions in my thread but I was in Hawaii and on the site a lot less often than normal and didn't respond in time or get all my plays posted. Sorry about that. Suffice it to say that the over was no great bet in that UGA/Missouri game.

I watched the Mississippi State at Kentucky game again last night and had a few thoughts about it. Let's get the obvious thing out of the way first. That was one of the most lopsided officiated games that I have ever seen. Kentucky was holding Simmons on almost every play without getting called for it. There is zero way that Simmons or the Miss State staff was not complaining about that all day. Meaning: They looked the other way. The interference rules were clearly different depending on jersey as well. Ultimately, I think officiating cost Mississippi State the outright win in that game. With that said, I had a Mississippi State -10 ticket and they never sniffed covering that. The rain really hurt their advantages in the passing game. Guidry (sp?) simply couldn't catch a football for some reason. The Star of the game was #41 for UK who dominated with speed rush after speed rush. Miss State never adjusted to run at his vacancy, run a screen into his vacancy, and only late did they provide help for one of their two left tackles by chipping him. He annihilated the Mississippi State offense. Grats to all the folks on Kentucky both ATS and ML. I am happy for their team and I like several of the players. I hope they have continued success. They certainly play hard and with heart on every play. Disappointed in the Mississippi State coaching staff but not sure the officials let them win that game no matter what.

Plays to follow.

Weekday
North Carolina at Miami (1h under 28.5) loser 0-1
Memphis at Tulane (Memphis -14, under 67, 2h mem -10, 2h ov 31) loser, winner, loser, winner 2-3
UCLA at Colorado (under 60.5, UCLA 9.5) winner, loser 3-4

Saturday
Arkansas at Texas A&M (TAMU -20.5) loser 3-5
Indiana at Rutgers (Under 51.5) winner 4-5
Army at Buffalo (Under 55) push 4-5
Oklahoma State at Kansas (Oklahoma State -17 big) winner 5-5
Syracuse at Clemson (over 66) loser 5-6
WVU at Texas Tech (West Virginia -3.5, over 75) winner winner 7-6
Temple at Boston College (Under 54) loser 7-7
Central Michigan at Michigan State (over 46) winner 8-7
Bowling Green at Georgia Tech (GT 28, over 66) winner winner 10-7
ULL at Alabama (not betting it) 10-7
Virginia at NCSU (over 54) winner 11-7
ULM at Ga State (ULM -7 -125, over 62) loser loser 11-9
Umass at Ohio (Ohio -13.5 big) winner 12-9
kent state at ball state (kent state 7.5 over 64.5) loser winner 13-10
coastal carolina at Troy (troy -14) winner 14-10
Texas at Kansas State (over 48) loser 14-11
old dominion at ECU (not betting it) 14-11
south alabama at app st (sbama 26, over 55.5) loser winner 15-12
FSU at Ville (pending) 15-12
Vols at Uga (over 51) 15-13
baylor at oklahoma (OU -23.5) winner 16-13
cinci at Uconn (under 60) winner 17-13
rice at wake forest (wake -25.5) winner 18-13
pitt at ucf (pending lol i cannot win a game where either team is involved)
Purdue at Nebraska (over 56.5) winner 19-13
wmich at miami oh (over 55, 2h wmu -3.5, 2h over 26.5 winner winner21-13
usm at Aub (USM 27, over 52.5) winner loser 22-14
nevada at afa (AFA -6.5, over 64, 2h nev 1, 2h und 27 loser loser loser winner 23-17
michigan at nw (under 47) winner 24-17
niu at emu (niu 3.5, over 48) winner winner 26-17
liberty at unm (liberty 7, over 64) winner winner 28-17
arkansas state at ga southern (ark st -3, over 55) loser loser28-19
florida at mississippi state (Mississippi State -7) loser 28-20
utah at washington state (Utah pick big) loser 28-21
UTEP at UTSA (UTEP 10) winner 29-21
VT at Duke (over 50) loser 29-22
FAU at MTSU (FAU -3, over 64) loser loser 29-24
Charlotte at UAB (char 17 under 54.5) loser winner 30-25
ISU at TCU (TCU -11 biggish) loser 30-26
Hawaii at SJSU (pending, lean sjsu)
boise st at wyoming (boise st -17, over 47) winn winner 32-26
marshall at wku (marshall -5, over 52) loser loser 32-28
South Carolina at UK (under 51) winner 33-28
La Tech at UNT (La Tech 7.5 under 65) winner winner 35-28
Ohio State at Penn State (TOSU -4 huge - guess I should have waited) lol loser 35-29
Stanford at ND (ND -5.5, under 54.5) winner loser 36-30
BYU at Washington (Washington -17) winner 37-30
Ole Miss at LSU (pending)
oregon State at Arizona State (oregon state 22, over 62.5) winner loser 38031
toledo at Fresno State (toledo 8 big) 38-32
oregon at Cal (under 58.5) 2h und 27 loser loser 38-33
USC at Zona (pending)

Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Week five 38-33 +1.7 units
Overall 146-143 -11.3 units
 
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No worries VK. I’d rather be sipping something refreshing on the beach of HA. Have checked this thread weekly for the better part of a decade. I know you answer more times than not. I laid off, which didn’t win, but didn’t lose either. GL this week.
 
booksbestfriend said:
No worries VK. I’d rather be sipping something refreshing on the beach of HA. Have checked this thread weekly for the better part of a decade. I know you answer more times than not. I laid off, which didn’t win, but didn’t lose either. GL this week.
Click to expand...

Thanks man.
 
Nice job grinding out a profit in what seemed to be a pretty brutal week 4 overall. Hope you keep it rolling this week!

CB
 
Memphis at Tulane (Memphis -14, under 67)
UCLA at Colorado (under 60.5)
Arkansas at Texas A&M (TAMU -20.5)
Indiana at Rutgers (Under 51.5)
Oklahoma State at Kansas (Oklahoma State -17 big)
Syracuse at Clemson (over 66)
WVU at Texas Tech (West Virginia -3.5, over 75)
Central Michigan at Michigan State (over 46)
Bowling Green at Georgia Tech (GT 28, over 66)
Virginia at NCSU (over 54)
ULM at Ga State (ULM -7 -125, over 62)
Umass at Ohio (Ohio -13.5 big)
kent state at ball state (kent state 7.5 over 64.5)
coastal carolina at Troy (troy -14)
Texas at Kansas State (over 48)
south alabama at app st (sbama 26, over 55.5)
Vols at Uga (over 51)
baylor at oklahoma (OU -23.5)
cinci at Uconn (under 60)
rice at wake forest (wake -25.5)
Purdue at Nebraska (over 56.5)
wmich at miami oh (over 55)
usm at Aub (USM 27, over 52.5)
nevada at afa (AFA -6.5, over 64)
michigan at nw (under 47)
niu at emu (niu 3.5, over 48)
liberty at unm (liberty 7, over 64)
arkansas state at ga southern (ark st -3, over 55)
utah at washington state (Utah pick big)
UTEP at UTSA (UTEP 10)
VT at Duke (over 50)
FAU at MTSU (FAU -3, over 64)
Charlotte at UAB (char 17 under 54.5)
ISU at TCU (TCU -11 biggish)
boise st at wyoming (boise st -17, over 47)
marshall at wku (marshall -5, over 52)
South Carolina at UK (under 51)
La Tech at UNT (La Tech 7.5 under 65)
Ohio State at Penn State (TOSU -4 huge - guess I should have waited)
Stanford at ND (ND -5.5, under 54.5)
BYU at Washington (Washington -17)
oregon State at Arizona State (oregon state 22, over 62.5)
toledo at Fresno State (toledo 8 big)
oregon at Cal (under 58.5)
 
So i bet most of my stuff late and didn't really do well on a couple of my bigger bets that I made early (TOSU at -4 and TCU at -11).

Should be a fun week. I am pretty sure I am laying off the Thursday game unless I see something at halftime. I am quite confident that Miami Florida is really good right now but that is a lot of points against a UNC team in conference that I am not sure what we get
 
RetroVK said:
So i bet most of my stuff late and didn't really do well on a couple of my bigger bets that I made early (TOSU at -4 and TCU at -11).

Should be a fun week. I am pretty sure I am laying off the Thursday game unless I see something at halftime. I am quite confident that Miami Florida is really good right now but that is a lot of points against a UNC team in conference that I am not sure what we get
Click to expand...

C’mon man you know you won’t be able to resist putting something down on that Thursday night game haha.
 
BOL this week VK. I will be interested to see what you come up with for Army/Buffalo. Buffalo has been good to me so far this year, but I am wary this week with them facing an Army team that can wear you down with their extended drives keeping the defense on the field for long periods and limiting offensive plays on the other side. Add that Johnson is questionable with leg injury and it makes it even potentially tougher on Buff. I still can't get over how OK was held to just 40 offensive plays last week, just amazing. I think Army is one of those dangerous type teams where if they can stick around early and not fall down by a couple scores they become really game in the second half due to limiting opponent plays.
 
KJ Osborne is actually Buffalo's leading statistical receiver, although he is benefiting from the attention Johnson gets. I still see Johnson 1-on-1 sometimes though. Johnson is a stud no doubt about it. UB isn't exactly a one man show however. It's not like that one year Neutz had 4x the number of catches as the #2 guy. As an Army bettor you obviously feel better without him on the field and as a Buffalo backer you want him out there, but not a game changer exactly.
 
Donuou have the line from last year handy sk? I know i was large on buffalo and won but the year over year line flip is huge
 
RetroVK said:
Donuou have the line from last year handy sk? I know i was large on buffalo and won but the year over year line flip is huge
Click to expand...

I had Buffalo too. May've ML'd them since I distinctly remember they had a shot at getting the ball back, but Army faked that punt and ran the clock out. Very sneaking call by Coach Monken.

Army was -15 according to Phil Steele, but I tend to think my line lower.

Buffalo had just lost at Minny 7-17 and Army had just beat Fordam 64-6
 
s--k said:
KJ Osborne is actually Buffalo's leading statistical receiver, although he is benefiting from the attention Johnson gets. I still see Johnson 1-on-1 sometimes though. Johnson is a stud no doubt about it. UB isn't exactly a one man show however. It's not like that one year Neutz had 4x the number of catches as the #2 guy. As an Army bettor you obviously feel better without him on the field and as a Buffalo backer you want him out there, but not a game changer exactly.
Click to expand...
Totally disagree. Johnson is the guy that Tyree looks for in big situations. Huge loss.
 
Marsski said:
Totally disagree. Johnson is the guy that Tyree looks for in big situations. Huge loss.
Click to expand...

I've only watched the Temple game this year, but to me, that game showed that Buffalo has grown to not have to heavily rely on Johnson. In addition to Johnson plenty of other players targeted and delivered when the game was on the line and on 3rd down. At any rate it doesn't help Buffalo if he is out obviously but they could win games withou him in my opinion.
 
Good luck this week VK....mostly with you, but can't see Guadagni doing much @ Fresno against that secondary
 
AliShaheed said:
Can you share your thoughts on Utah? Thanks.
Click to expand...


Basically like their pass defense off a loss and a bye against Washington State. We have seen Washington State teams falter some in the bowls when teams have time to prepare for what they do (though that could be more about Falk than Washington State, and new QB is better). Washington State seems to have given indications that they cannot run it against anyone so I doubt they run it on Utah. 75 wyo, 125 sjsu, 41 ewash 91 usc. So knowing there is the slimmest of chances of them being able to run the ball, it becomes a match up of washst pass vs Utah pass D on that side of the ball. Utah is giving up an absurdly low 3.5 yards per pass attempt so far this year. While I think this number is majorly skewed because they played completely shut down Weber St, NIU cannot throw, and Washington didn't need to throw much (6.5 ypa in that game), I do think Utah has a good pass defense. Obviously Utah has been struggling on offense but NIU and Washington are pretty good defenses too. I think USC exposed some Washington State deficiencies and Utah is able to have success moving the ball. I think Utah also is the team more likely to win the turnover battle in this one.
 
Marsski said:
Good luck this week VK....mostly with you, but can't see Guadagni doing much @ Fresno against that secondary
Click to expand...

Fresno has played against three shitty passing teams ... idaho, Minnesota and ucla and gave up 6.2, 7.0 and 6.3 yards per attempt. Fresno has been ball hawking, no doubt about that but no reason he cannot succeed against that secondary. he threw for 222 at over 10 yards per attempt against Miami Fl. I am more concerned about their ability to run against Fresno State and their ability to stop anyone. Though Miami Fl and Nevada are both considerably better offenses than Fresno State. Market agrees with you though .. they are betting fresno like it is free money
 
I believe UTEP was 40-20 in TOP last week; 500 TY to 350ish; -5 in TO and lost in a game they cold have won. Being a situational guy rather than technical capper, I think UTEP are very likely to have an off week. UTSA has not been impressive, but schedule has been tough. You seem to like the Miners this week. ?

U Mass employed 3rd string QB in their win last week. Doesn't that seem like a big impost for Solich & Co to cover ? ?

I thought TCU would have a bad game last week after previous loss to tOSU. I hope your 'biggish' is correct.

Leaning LA Tech and Utah. I need a little encouragement.

Very glad to see that you had a winning week . At the rate I'm going, I 'll be a former customer at 5Dimes before Bowl season. Worst year ever so far.
 
Agree with you assessment on the Utah/Wazzou game.

The one thing I would add is that Utah has by FAR the best kicking game.

Utah has probably the best kicker in the country, but there is also some strange play calling by Utah. For some reason they went for it fourth down three times deep in Washington territory instead of having their kicker attempt what for him would have been routine kicks. I didn't hear anything about an injury to the kicker so the play calling made no sense.
 
Adds

2h Memphis -`10
2h Memphis/Tulane over 31

As I see that first half as one of the most ridiculous of the year, I will pay to see it happen again. This is solely based on my pregame read and my feeling the first half way stupid. There is nothing I have seen and little in the box score to support either of these plays.
 
If time of possession is 15+ in 2h for Memphis you will win these ... Simple as that. That's the big question
 
RetroVK said:
Fresno has played against three shitty passing teams ... idaho, Minnesota and ucla and gave up 6.2, 7.0 and 6.3 yards per attempt. Fresno has been ball hawking, no doubt about that but no reason he cannot succeed against that secondary. he threw for 222 at over 10 yards per attempt against Miami Fl. I am more concerned about their ability to run against Fresno State and their ability to stop anyone. Though Miami Fl and Nevada are both considerably better offenses than Fresno State. Market agrees with you though .. they are betting fresno like it is free money
Click to expand...

What do you think about Fresno facing a running QB? It's been a while since Toledo had so much QB run.

Quite a rush: UT's Guadagni a threat to run

https://www.toledoblade.com/sports/...ch-guadagni-threat-to-run/stories/20180926030
 
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Ok , mr Retro VK, Tell me why I should go against Tahoe Legend and bet on a crappy team like OSU.
Thanks if you have time. I'll be here Saturday a.m.
 
I
bull said:
Ok , mr Retro VK, Tell me why I should go against Tahoe Legend and bet on a crappy team like OSU.
Thanks if you have time. I'll be here Saturday a.m.
Click to expand...


I assume you mean Oregon State. To be fair, Oregon State is only bad on one side of the ball. But I mostly like this spot for Oregon State. Mich st, SDSU, Washington, this game and then at Colorado. I guess there is the class relief argument which is certainly true but I think this is a tough game for them to get up for and even if they do and are up 28 in the fourth, beavs have a decent enough offense to find a backdoor.
 
RetroVK said:
Basically like their pass defense off a loss and a bye against Washington State. We have seen Washington State teams falter some in the bowls when teams have time to prepare for what they do (though that could be more about Falk than Washington State, and new QB is better). Washington State seems to have given indications that they cannot run it against anyone so I doubt they run it on Utah. 75 wyo, 125 sjsu, 41 ewash 91 usc. So knowing there is the slimmest of chances of them being able to run the ball, it becomes a match up of washst pass vs Utah pass D on that side of the ball. Utah is giving up an absurdly low 3.5 yards per pass attempt so far this year. While I think this number is majorly skewed because they played completely shut down Weber St, NIU cannot throw, and Washington didn't need to throw much (6.5 ypa in that game), I do think Utah has a good pass defense. Obviously Utah has been struggling on offense but NIU and Washington are pretty good defenses too. I think USC exposed some Washington State deficiencies and Utah is able to have success moving the ball. I think Utah also is the team more likely to win the turnover battle in this one.
Click to expand...
I watched the end of the WST/USC and was shocked on their last possession that Leach tried to run on both second and third down and seemingly played for a tying FG which was blocked.
 
I watched the end of the WST/USC and was shocked on their last possession that Leach tried to run on both second and third down and seemingly played for a tying FG which was blocked.
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The 3rd down run was a Minshew check at the line of scrimmage. He said afterwards how stupid of call it was and took responsibility. Leach didn't throw him under the bus because he gives Minshew that ability to audible, but I doubt that is what Leach would've wanted. Minshew was probably concussed from the missed targeting call two plays before.
 
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