Florida -23 (1 unit) and Florida -20.5 (2 units)
This is shaping up to be my GOW. Hit this line at -23 and it continued to drop. I have no idea why. Florida hung 59 at home to Tennessee and held Ainge and Co. to 20 friggin points. I think the line has value, because Florida's road SEC games last year don't look to warrant laying 3 TD's in Oxford. However, I believe our starting QB Seth Adams was hurt against Vanderbilt, meaning Shaeffer could start. And even if Adams does start, I know that Orgeron isn't scared of taking him out of the game and putting in friggin Shaeffer. This one is going to get ugly, folks. If Florida put 24 on Tennessee in the 4th quarter alone, I am scared to see what they do to Ole Miss.
Let's just look at the situation here. In '02 and '03, Ole Miss won this matchup 17-14, and 20-17, respectively. But guys, a LOT has changed since then. You may remember that Eli friggin Manning was our quarterback when we went to Florida and won 20-17. Now, Ole Miss is a shell of its former self.
The State of the Confederacy
Ole Miss is underperforming expectations this year, if that is possible. I said Ole Miss was a good dog bet if they were catching points in Week 1. When we came out as a favorite, I said I wouldn't lay the points but we'd still win. We did win, but did not cover the 3. (2nd half meltdown). Week 2, my GOW was on Mizzou -6. We failed to cover, again. Last week, I thought Vandy would beat us, but wanted to watch the game so I didn't bet it. We looked pretty awful.
Now, look at Florida. DESTROYED Western Kentucky. DESTROYED Troy. DESTROYED friggin Tennessee, by 39 points. Anyone get a chance to check out Tennessee's rushing stats for the game? Yes, that would be 21 rushes for 37 yards. Yes, 37. Too bad Ole Miss's only strength is the running game. Look for Florida's Defense, which took a hellatious hit from last year, so step up and shut down BenJarvus. To the passing game: Ainge was able to pass all over Florida (249 yards), but for only 1 touchdown and an interception to boot. We don't have a quarterback CLOSE to Ainge's talent level. Florida's D may look suspect, but they haven't given up the big play. As weird as it sounds, that is what has kept Ole Miss in games in the past - long passes during a let down in coverage. Other than Tenny's INT return against Fla, their longest scoring play was 15 yards. I think Seth Adams and/or Brent Shaeffer are going to have trouble passing on this defense which Blue Ribbon gave a C-, but that has been only allowing 18 ppg in the young year.
Finally, we are getting line value here for the sheer fact that Ole Miss has won this game the past two years, it's Florida's first road game, and its a SEC home dog. This is working to Florida's advantage. A team like Florida certainly doesn't lose to a team like us three straight times - and it's time for Florida to make a statement in Oxford. I will be SHOCKED if we score over 10 pts in this one - Florida should throw up 35 at minimum.
Florida: 41 Ole Miss: 13
Will add more leans/ plays as I finalize them. :shake:
Above is the text in rambles thread, that others have referenced here. The reason I spend time at this site is the amount of information that i garner each week that may help me to pull the trigger on a game i might have laid off .. or to eliminate a game that i might otherwise have played. Ramble seems to have his rebels pegged and i can't argue comfortably against his points for the florida side so i am eliminating ole miss as a possible play today. Thanks mets , blue chip and ramble for talking me off of this one.
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