Time to post my week 4 card so far

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
week 1 3-3
week 2 4-4
week 3 2-4

Off to a losing start. Hope to get back on track this week

Locked in:
Notre Dame +14 ( CRIS )
Navy -10 ( CRIS )
oregon state +12 ( CRIS )
Georgia +4 ( CRIS )
BYU -9.5 ( CRIS )
Illinois -3 ( CRIS )
Morgan State +17 ( .05 cfb units , or 1 d1aa unit. 57.50 to win 50.00)
Strong Leans :
Navy -10.5 ADDED TO PLAYS SEPT 17
oregon state + 11.5 ADDED TO PLAYS SEPT 17
Georgia +3.5 ADDED TO PLAYS SEPT 17
Houston -6.5 ELIMINATED SEPT 20
Byu -9 ADDED TO PLAYS SEPT 17
Illinois -2.5 ADDED TO PLAYS SEPT 17
Pitt -7 ELIMINATED SEPT 19
Baylor -3.5 ELIMINATED SEPT 20
Wake -3.5 ELIMINATED SEPT 19

talk me offs:

Mississippi +21 ELIMINATED SEPT 17
Iowa +7 ELIMINATED SEPT 20
unlv +8.5 ELIMINATED SEPT 20
kansas -29.5 ELIMINATED SEPT 19
 
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Ramble had some good stuff on Ole Piss, and I agree. I know its a road game, but this is a team who lost to Vandy and should have lost to Memphis already. Florida should roll in this one.

I like Wisky in this game. I know it was a rivalry game, but theres no excuse for losing to Iowa State. Wisky finally gets a team with a traditional offense who wont spread the field. I think youll see a good defensive effort from both teams. PJ Hill will get his yards though, while Albert Young was limited to only 80 against ISU. If Iowa can't run the ball, they cant win this game.

I dont understand the Kansas line, and I need to look into more myself. Not sure how they were favored by 27 against Toledo, who granted sucks, but is still better than FIU, and only 29.5 against FIU. FIU gave up 59 points to Penn State, a team who has very average offense. FIU hasnt done anything offensively and certainly nothing defensively to warrant such a low number. I thought this would be closer to 38 myself.
 
Like metsrp86 said, read RambleOn's thread discussing UF @ Ole Piss; I agree with him 100%.

UF would command more points if it weren't a SEC match-up. Also, the line is set at -21 because UF goes to Oxford to play this one, but I think Vegas is overrating Vaught-Hemingway; it's not that big of a homefield advantage when the home team is taken out of the game in the 1st quarter.

Well, this is me trying to talk you off of Ole Piss +21, I hope you listen.
:cheers:
 
Florida -23 (1 unit) and Florida -20.5 (2 units)

This is shaping up to be my GOW. Hit this line at -23 and it continued to drop. I have no idea why. Florida hung 59 at home to Tennessee and held Ainge and Co. to 20 friggin points. I think the line has value, because Florida's road SEC games last year don't look to warrant laying 3 TD's in Oxford. However, I believe our starting QB Seth Adams was hurt against Vanderbilt, meaning Shaeffer could start. And even if Adams does start, I know that Orgeron isn't scared of taking him out of the game and putting in friggin Shaeffer. This one is going to get ugly, folks. If Florida put 24 on Tennessee in the 4th quarter alone, I am scared to see what they do to Ole Miss.

Let's just look at the situation here. In '02 and '03, Ole Miss won this matchup 17-14, and 20-17, respectively. But guys, a LOT has changed since then. You may remember that Eli friggin Manning was our quarterback when we went to Florida and won 20-17. Now, Ole Miss is a shell of its former self.

The State of the Confederacy

Ole Miss is underperforming expectations this year, if that is possible. I said Ole Miss was a good dog bet if they were catching points in Week 1. When we came out as a favorite, I said I wouldn't lay the points but we'd still win. We did win, but did not cover the 3. (2nd half meltdown). Week 2, my GOW was on Mizzou -6. We failed to cover, again. Last week, I thought Vandy would beat us, but wanted to watch the game so I didn't bet it. We looked pretty awful.

Now, look at Florida. DESTROYED Western Kentucky. DESTROYED Troy. DESTROYED friggin Tennessee, by 39 points. Anyone get a chance to check out Tennessee's rushing stats for the game? Yes, that would be 21 rushes for 37 yards. Yes, 37. Too bad Ole Miss's only strength is the running game. Look for Florida's Defense, which took a hellatious hit from last year, so step up and shut down BenJarvus. To the passing game: Ainge was able to pass all over Florida (249 yards), but for only 1 touchdown and an interception to boot. We don't have a quarterback CLOSE to Ainge's talent level. Florida's D may look suspect, but they haven't given up the big play. As weird as it sounds, that is what has kept Ole Miss in games in the past - long passes during a let down in coverage. Other than Tenny's INT return against Fla, their longest scoring play was 15 yards. I think Seth Adams and/or Brent Shaeffer are going to have trouble passing on this defense which Blue Ribbon gave a C-, but that has been only allowing 18 ppg in the young year.

Finally, we are getting line value here for the sheer fact that Ole Miss has won this game the past two years, it's Florida's first road game, and its a SEC home dog. This is working to Florida's advantage. A team like Florida certainly doesn't lose to a team like us three straight times - and it's time for Florida to make a statement in Oxford. I will be SHOCKED if we score over 10 pts in this one - Florida should throw up 35 at minimum.

Florida: 41 Ole Miss: 13

Will add more leans/ plays as I finalize them. :shake:


Above is the text in rambles thread, that others have referenced here. The reason I spend time at this site is the amount of information that i garner each week that may help me to pull the trigger on a game i might have laid off .. or to eliminate a game that i might otherwise have played. Ramble seems to have his rebels pegged and i can't argue comfortably against his points for the florida side so i am eliminating ole miss as a possible play today. Thanks mets , blue chip and ramble for talking me off of this one.
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You no likey Toledo as 3.5 point dogs against Iowa St.? I'm slowly starting to really like this, and will probably play a little ML, too...
 
ETG - to summarize it quickly ... I like what Illinois brings to the table this year in the trenches for this game. Both their offensive line and defensive line make my top 25 units list and indiana is nowhere to be found on those. That means that illinois should control the LOS on both sides of the ball. My one concern ( besides the homefield ) is the QB position as kellen lewis is twice the decision maker that juice williams is. I also think that there is a large depth advantage for Illinois in this one due to unbelievable ( anyone else suspicious of recruiting violations at illinois ? ) recruiting the last two years by zook. Illinois has impressed me in every game they have played this year. Playing in st louis vs missouri and playing at syracuse has given me more respect for them as a road team as well. Basically I see two decent teams offensively .... but only one decent team defensively in illinois. In addition .... i am not a believer in akron at all ........ western michigan has played terrible in all of their games , and indiana state ... is well ... indiana state. This is the first real test for indiana where as i feel illinois is a bit more battle tested.

counselor -- i had toledo last week vs kansas. truth be told ... the MAC has been my nemesis the last couple years. Whether it is because they are shady ..... or whether it is because i dont cap those particular teams well ..... the fact remains that it has been costly for me. For this reason i am making a conscience decision to avoid games involving MAC teams in general. i think i will just stick with Big Mac's instead.
 
kyle,

you make a lot of interesting points regarding Illinois...however, I think what you need to calculate also is the "zook factor" in-game coaching...
 
pags -- zook has been a concern for gameday coaching in the past. i think i have mentioned in previous posts my distain for him in that regard. I failed to mention that as a concern above but i certainly agree with your point. it isn't a big enough concern to make me lay off though and zook has actually been much better this year at making the halftime adjustments as compared to years past.
 
GL this week VK. Like Oregon St. and Navy. Not sure about Illinois, I decided before the line came out that I would lean to whoever came out as the underdog.

Also, you are getting value on ND. I just can't play them. I just can't.

GL and you will turn it around this week.
 
Thanks Dmoney !
:cheers:

Glad to see the avatar change ! I think there are a lot of folks who will be on the Indiana side in the game. Hell, Indiana beat the Illini in Illinois last year. I just think most games are won and lost in the line play unless there is glaring differences in scheme or skill position talent. The worry will be turnovers as I think Lewis tends to be far more careful with the ball than Juice is. And ,as pags mentioned,:hang: zooks propensity to find a way to make a bad decision.
 
Vegas Glad I could get you off of Ole Miss. Like I responded in my thread, I don't fault you for liking the +21 points. Most people would jump to get a home dog like that in an SEC matchup. I just think with the state of this team, it's not a good play. Another point that I did not mention is that Orgeron likes to go for it on 4th down, instead of kicking field goals. In such a high profile game like this one, in which we have won in the past - he might be inclined to make some iffy decisions when it comes to 4th downs. If we miss those, the Rebs are in trouble.

BOL this week on your plays.
 
OK folks , I eliminated some possible plays last night/today in both my strong leans and talk me offs. those were pitt, kansas and wake.
Pittsburgh and Kansas were basically removed because the line has gotten away from me. Wake was removed due to further analysis, updated injuries and the like. The line should be 4 now in my estimation making it a no play for me. Also, not doing write ups this week.... but thought i would give a quick reasoning behind some of the plays this week. illinois blurb is already in here somewhere so left them out.

Notre Dame +14 -- This is incredible value in my mind. This line is way off of what it should be on paper. Between Notre Dame not scoring an offensive TD and the books taking an absolute beating on games involving Notre Dame this year, this line is skewed dramatically. Notre Dame has been a 14 point dog only once in the last 5 years plus and that was on the road vs a talented trojan team in 2004. Michigan State is not as good a football team as penn state , georgia tech or michigan and simply cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number on the road. Michigan State, before being bet up, was laying 17 at home to uab ... now 14 on the road at notre dame ?? Might lose this bet .... but given the same information, I would make this bet every single time.

Navy -10 --- Terrible spot for Duke. Snap longest losing streak in d1 football on the road at northwestern ( where they were outplayed ) and have to travel home. They undoubtedly partied a bit and then have to prepare for option attack of Navy and then travel again to Annapolis. Navy is waiting in the tall grass waiting for a satisfied wilderbeast to wander by ........ they are coming off of two give away losses at rutgers and home to ball state. Several interceptions in the end zone by midshipmen gave away any hope of beating a rutgers team that they played pretty even with and they simply choked a game away that they should have won last week vs ball state. Have to think they are angry .. and have to think they dont want this game decided by a fieldgoal. No chance that duke stops Navy run attack as it is ... but throw in the spot situatuion and this play equates to a Wilderbeast dinner for Navy.

Oregon State +12 -- HAHA Arizona State -12 here .. i dont get it. Oregon State returns a lot of the same players that put a big time whooping on Carpenter and company last year. A ML bet has to be considered in this game. Possibly a better team getting 12 here...if not they certainly aren't deserving of this much disrespect. cincy did nothing offensively against them and neither did utah and Arizona State is the poster child for inconsistency the last decade. easy bet imo.

Georgia +4 -- Georgia has more talent, lets get that out of the way. Richt has had two weeks to prepare for alabama after a home loss to SC to open their conference play. Bama is off a huge , thrilling close home win over rival arkansas. Great spot for Georgia. I like georgia straight up so getting the 4 is a bonus.

BYU -9.5 --- Again getting great value in the number. BYU is a 7.5 point road chalk at tulsa in a terrible spot after playing two physical games against arizona and at ucla. Now they are only -9.5 to air Force at home in a great spot as they come in 1-2 and air force 3-0 off a mystifying win vs tCU. BYU victories at home are usually by a decent margin and I look for more of the same here.

There are of course matchup reasons ( the cornerstone of my style of capping, as compared to spot capping) that apply to these bets but when coupled with these situational spots above it makes this my favorite card of the season so far.
 
Eliminated the remainder of my leans today and added my d1aa game. so the card is set barring a DRBOB line move that turns something into a play again. Took Morgan State +17 at Hampton in tonights d1aa game. Thought son this matchup from me and others can be found in hoopsstar's week 4 d1aa thread. Sorry for slow start but I have had far worse runs over a 20 game span. Good luck to everyone this week.
 
I don't think anybody including yourself is worried about your slow start. You put way to much work into this for the record to stay below .500. Tear it up this week man.
 
I don't think anybody including yourself is worried about your slow start. You put way to much work into this for the record to stay below .500. Tear it up this week man.


Agreed - GL tonight with the I-AA action. I'll be keeping an eye on that one.
 
i really like your florida pick as well, i hit it at -21.5 and got -21 by buying down the half point. I really like this play as well. I think for the rest of the season oklahoma and florida are going to have to try to run up the points on opponents.

GL
 
Frankie , the florida pick above is actually Rambleon, who is doing considerably better than I at this point of the season. I pasted his writeup in my thread because it was referenced several times and to give some reasoning as to why I was not taking an sec road home favorite of over three td in mississippi. GL with Florida this weekend and the rest of your plays !
 
Kyle= I guess you and I are the only ones who like the Illini. I like Oregon St a lot too. ML as well
GL'an_horse'
 
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