ok first writeup of week2. miniaturized these writeups a bit but am willing to answer any questions about probable gameplans , specific matchups or talent levels etc etc etc if anyone asks.
The matchup : Missouri at Mississippi
Last year: Mississippi 7 Missouri 34 at columbia, mo
Missouri dominated this game a year ago. They rushed for over 200 and passed for over 250, dominating the rebels from start to finish. They averaged over 5 a carry on offense while holding ole MISS to under 3 a carry. Daniel was 25 of 41 while the MISS qb was 13-29. Missouri outgained Mississippi by roughly 300 yards. Mississippi fell behind early and that limited their gameplan somewhat and were forced to throw more than they would like with bad qb schaeffer. Total domination.
Missouri offense vs. Mississippi defense
This is a nightmare for Mississippi. The ol of Missouri did a decent job of protecting Daniel last week vs. Illinois and I have Illinois defensive line ranked in my top 25 of that unit ranking. The DL of Mississippi is actually pretty good but given Missouri ‘s performance last week, the tigers should be able to give daniel plenty of time to throw. When he does throw he will be seeing a lot of open nfl caliber tight ends. With a very strong line backing unit a year ago led by Patrick Willis the tigers were still able to achieve mismatches with the tightends vs. the linebackers. Willis is gone and the linebackers are the biggest weakness on the Mississippi defensive side of the ball. The secondary of Mississippi got torched by the spread attack of Memphis last week and qb hankins. Hankins threw for 343 yards and connected on 41 of 60 passes. No offense to Memphis folks but Daniel and company are a better group. The Memphis offense gained 467 yards and 30 first downs vs. the Mississippi defense. They scored only 21 but were victims of 5 turnovers and a blocked punt. In short Memphis was fairly dominant vs. the Mississippi defense. Daniel should have similar results. As I have stated before about this Missouri team , we know what we are going to get from them offensively … a lot of points consistently week in and week out.
Mississippi offense vs. Missouri defense
Mississippi did not look spectacular in their 23-21 victory over Memphis this past week. They started off the game well driving 92 yards for what would be their only offensive TD of the game. Let me state that again .. Playing Memphis , Mississippi did not score an offensive td following Memphis’ first defensive possession of the season. The rebels had just three decent drives in the game … the 92 yarder mentioned above, a 13 play 71 yard drive that ended on downs at the Memphis 20 and a 13 play 52 yard drive that resulted in a missed field goal. The only other offensive points that the rebels were able to garner was a field goal after a 9 yard drive that started deep in Memphis territory following an interception of Memphis. Mississipi’s other points in this game came from a blocked punt for TD and a 99 yard int return for a td. After the initial drive they managed just 183 total yards of offense and were 1 of 7 on third down conversions from the second quarter on. Missouri’s defense is not a bone crusher for sure but is certainly on par with what the Memphis tigers bring to the table. The rebels averaged under 3 yards a carry last week and they are going to have to throw to keep up with mizzu. Qb seth adams, while adequate and improving is too inexperienced to count on for that. Illinois last week was able to effectively throw the ball due to pretty good protection provided by a top 20 offensive line and decent athletes at the wr positions. Outside of oher for the rebels the ol looks questionable to me.
How I see the game and why I bet Missouri -6
Not trying to beat a dead horse but Missouri can score on anyone and I have ample reason to believe that they can score on Mississippi. They scored on them at will a year ago, Memphis spread type attack moved the ball very well on them last week and Missouri is loaded at virtually every offensive position with experience and talent. Missouri has the tight end weapons that can exploit the Mississippi line backing weakness and a veteran junior qb who will not be rattled on the road visiting an sec opponent. One would have to assume that Missouri scores over thirty points in this game a high percentage of the time. That is the rub … Mississippi never scores over 30. They have not scored over 28 points in their last 28 games. How do they keep up ? If they fall behind early they have to rely on seth adams to complete passes consistently and win them a game late. They didn’t show they were capable of this in his first start.
Final score : Missouri 36 Mississippi 20
Reasons of concern:
-Missouri is a terrible road favorite and Mississippi was 3-0 vs. the spread as a home dog last year
-pinkel vs. orgeron is a major coaching mismatch in favor of the rebels
-Mississippi at the end of last year showed the ability to compete with top notch sec opponents
