RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Week five 38-33 +1.7 units
Week six 39-33 +2.7 units
Week seven 39-32 +3.8 units
Week eight 42-25 +14.5 units
Week nine 35-31 +0.9 units
Week ten 41-21 +17.9 units'
Week 11 22 -15 +5.5 units
Week 12 17-17 -1.7 units
Week 13 24-20 +2.4 units
Overall 405-337 +34.7 units
Well the 2018 regular season is basically over. I would be lying if I said that I wasn't proud of that regular season. I have little doubt it will be the best regular season that I will ever have. I caught more good breaks than bad which always helps and I think I did a decent job of finding value. While I had a few juice week losses after week 1, that week was the only week where I lost more games than I won. Moreover, I am pleased with how things went on the larger bets.
Now to make a few comments about a potential mistake with regard to week 13 in hopes I can remember to not make the mistake again next year.
First is Bowl eligibility with likelihood of invite and Second is missing opportunities after "bowl eligibility win mapping" fails the week prior. I made good $ backing teams needing wins for bowl eligibility purposes the last 3-4 weeks. With that said, I might have made two errors in the last weekend in this regard. First, I backed Coastal Carolina on the road seeking a sixth win which would make them bowl eligible in a game at South Alabama, who has been abysmal. I do think Coastal is the better football team but I read articles about how young and tired they were and they were playing bad football heading into the game. But what I want to point out is that the bowl eligibility factor might mean less if you are not going to get an invite. The sunbelt conference already has six bowl eligible teams and I am not sure that the conference has ever had 7 teams selected. I imagine they would have been the seventh most desired team in the conference and bowl eligibility might have meant no invite. Maybe this is too in the weeds with regard to the kids and coaches but it isn't for proper officiating. Secondly, I mapped out the schedules 5 weeks ago. What I mean by that, is that I looked at the remaining games and found the most likely wins (upsets) for teams to reach bowl eligibility. It worked out great for me win weeks 10 and 11, and to a lesser extent it saved my rump some in week 12. However, in so doing, I think i missed further opportunities to invest in week 13. I could have gone for the P5 conference lay downs in week 13 with blind bets on Wake Forest and Minnesota and did not. I think psychologically, my mapping pointed to prior week wins and it made it harder for me to go back to the well on motivation with those teams (do they really want it?). But Wisconsin and Duke just let those two teams win. I needed to write that down somewhere to help me remember it for next year.
Northern Illinois vs Buffalo (Buffalo -3.5) 0-1
Utah vs Washington (Pending, lean Washington)
ULL vs App state (ULL 17.5, under 58.5) 2-1
Marshall vs Virginia Tech (-3.5) 3-1
ECU vs NCSTATE (ECU 24, Over 60.5) 4-2
Akron vs South Carolina (-30) 4-3
Texas vs Oklahoma (Under 78) 2h ov 38.5 5-4
UAB vs MTSU (Under 45, mtsu -1) 5-6
Stanford vs California (Cal 3) 5-7
Memphis vs UCF (pass)
UGA vs Bama (Bama -13, over 63) 5-8
Fresno State vs Boise State (Fresno Pick) 6-8
Pittsburgh at Clemson (Clemson -25) 2h -11 8-8
NW vs Ohio State (Ohio State -14, over 60.5) 2h -7 over 28.5 11-9
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Week five 38-33 +1.7 units
Week six 39-33 +2.7 units
Week seven 39-32 +3.8 units
Week eight 42-25 +14.5 units
Week nine 35-31 +0.9 units
Week ten 41-21 +17.9 units'
Week 11 22 -15 +5.5 units
Week 12 17-17 -1.7 units
Week 13 24-20 +2.4 units
Overall 405-337 +34.7 units
Well the 2018 regular season is basically over. I would be lying if I said that I wasn't proud of that regular season. I have little doubt it will be the best regular season that I will ever have. I caught more good breaks than bad which always helps and I think I did a decent job of finding value. While I had a few juice week losses after week 1, that week was the only week where I lost more games than I won. Moreover, I am pleased with how things went on the larger bets.
Now to make a few comments about a potential mistake with regard to week 13 in hopes I can remember to not make the mistake again next year.
First is Bowl eligibility with likelihood of invite and Second is missing opportunities after "bowl eligibility win mapping" fails the week prior. I made good $ backing teams needing wins for bowl eligibility purposes the last 3-4 weeks. With that said, I might have made two errors in the last weekend in this regard. First, I backed Coastal Carolina on the road seeking a sixth win which would make them bowl eligible in a game at South Alabama, who has been abysmal. I do think Coastal is the better football team but I read articles about how young and tired they were and they were playing bad football heading into the game. But what I want to point out is that the bowl eligibility factor might mean less if you are not going to get an invite. The sunbelt conference already has six bowl eligible teams and I am not sure that the conference has ever had 7 teams selected. I imagine they would have been the seventh most desired team in the conference and bowl eligibility might have meant no invite. Maybe this is too in the weeds with regard to the kids and coaches but it isn't for proper officiating. Secondly, I mapped out the schedules 5 weeks ago. What I mean by that, is that I looked at the remaining games and found the most likely wins (upsets) for teams to reach bowl eligibility. It worked out great for me win weeks 10 and 11, and to a lesser extent it saved my rump some in week 12. However, in so doing, I think i missed further opportunities to invest in week 13. I could have gone for the P5 conference lay downs in week 13 with blind bets on Wake Forest and Minnesota and did not. I think psychologically, my mapping pointed to prior week wins and it made it harder for me to go back to the well on motivation with those teams (do they really want it?). But Wisconsin and Duke just let those two teams win. I needed to write that down somewhere to help me remember it for next year.
Northern Illinois vs Buffalo (Buffalo -3.5) 0-1
Utah vs Washington (Pending, lean Washington)
ULL vs App state (ULL 17.5, under 58.5) 2-1
Marshall vs Virginia Tech (-3.5) 3-1
ECU vs NCSTATE (ECU 24, Over 60.5) 4-2
Akron vs South Carolina (-30) 4-3
Texas vs Oklahoma (Under 78) 2h ov 38.5 5-4
UAB vs MTSU (Under 45, mtsu -1) 5-6
Stanford vs California (Cal 3) 5-7
Memphis vs UCF (pass)
UGA vs Bama (Bama -13, over 63) 5-8
Fresno State vs Boise State (Fresno Pick) 6-8
Pittsburgh at Clemson (Clemson -25) 2h -11 8-8
NW vs Ohio State (Ohio State -14, over 60.5) 2h -7 over 28.5 11-9
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