And I lied ...
Every once in a while I like to mention a big ml dog that I think has value ... in 2008 it was eastern michigan as a humongous dog against bowling green and they won 24-21, in 2009 it was san jose state as an over five td dog against boise state and they lost 45-7 (ridiculous game I am still scarred over) and last year it was Western Kentucky against Marshall and they converted a two pt conversion to pull off the big upset ... In other words, this could get reaaallllll ugly sometimes but considering the odds you can get on huge dogs it doesn't take many correct calls to profit. Well, my radar is going off. It is tingling at the back of my feeble little brain because I have one. Georgia State has a decent chance at an outright win tomorrow in a game where both teams currently have over 70 georgia high school athletes involved in their respective football programs. These kids know each other, played with eachother and played against each other. Arbuckle is playing really good football right now, how many of you would guess that Arbuckle is top ten in yards per attempt and yards per game? Georgia State as a team is playing quality football with improved defense in recent weeks. While the final score of the game against Texas State was deceiving (41 -19 gast win) and texas state neither runs the exact same type of option attack or as good an option attack as Ga Southern, they did a decent job defending that run game for the most part. Ga state has also circled this game for awhile and now have bowl eligibility looming with a win. And in the case of GSU they are not likely to be a chosen five win team. I think Arbuckle, Hart, and Davis just keep on clicking on offense in this game. I am taking the side and total over for a unit each and I am sprinkling a little ml bet on gast to boot at roughly +1000. I made a few different totals in this game and admit I came up with some varying ones but at the end of the day, I can see this game playing out in my head and it calls for gast to put up pts.
USC/Stanford is just a play that I know is correct. One of the sites I use for pace has Stanford as the slowest team in cfb that does not run option football. USC can be jekyll and hyde when it comes to pace but I think we get more deliberate play calling here in the championship game. We get value because of the ridiculousness of the last time they played. Kessler was 25 of 32 for 275 and hogan was 18 of 23 for 279. Ya, that isn't happening again.
ADDS
GaState 21.5 -115 (sprinkled some +1000)
GaState/GaSouthern over 58
USC/Stanford under 58.5