Time to post my week 12 card so far

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Went a disappointing 1-2 last week . Brings my 2007 college football record to yet another disappointing though slightly profitable 35-29-2. Lets look at the games from last week. Rutgers --This was my winner and it was about as dominant a performance as you will see. Rutgers pounded army and army had no answer... the army offense was even more inept than expected and with rutgers controlling the clock and the snaps , the army defens got exhausted. Purdue -- Have to admit that I didnot see this coming. Boilermakers moved the ball as expected and they did what I wanted them to do as far as stopping the msu rush attack. That basically meant that sparty qb hoyer would have to have a huge game in order for purdue to not cover. He had the best game of his career. The michigan state pass attack won this one for the spartans and left me scratching my head. Colorado-- in what has been a common theme for me this year , colorado had a huge lead at halftime and somehow failed to cover against an iowa state team that while improving is far from good. Buffaloes were up 21-0 before surrendering 31 friggin points to the cyclones of all teams in the second half. Did not see a play of this game as I was stuck with the miserable FSN missouri /tamu game. hehe. The comeback does not look flukey in the box score however as it was basically a situation where iowa state scored , stopped cu , scored again , stopped cu and scored again. tough loss, but add it to the list of tough losses we have all taken this year. Will show you later in the thread how much more profitable i would be if i had just bet my sides in the first half ... as my second half luck has been atrocious. still , down just 1.2 units for the week and my leans that i avoided last week went just 5-5 so i saved half a unit for not playing those. Now the four games that just missed the cut last week that I teased were tcu with texas , and northwestern with boston college. Boston college tease In my discussions with TEXASFIGHT the previous week , we both expressed concern for bc coming out flat , as well as concern over the coaching match up. Ralph Friedgen can coach my friends. Thought those bases were covered with the 6 point tease but maryland actually controlled boston college at the line of scrimmage. That was the one thing i was confident they could not do... i was wrong. it happens. TCU tease. tcu covered the tease with ease and was a game that could have gone either way if you bet it against the spread. BYU was amazing on third downs in the game, and still struggled to score as much as you would have thought. If i could do over ... i would bet tcu plus the 7.5 and maybe even put a little on the ml. Northwestern -- This game went pretty much exactly like I thought it would .... other than northwestern was a little more dominant than i thought and that i started to think carolinablue was a prophet halfway through the game. if any of you read my indiana at northwestern thread from last week, carolinablue basically called for northwestern to hsve turnovers and struggle in the redzone. This is exactly what happened and almost cost northwestern the win in what should have been a twenty point ml dog winner. Indiana scored a td on a kick return and intercepted northwestern TWICE in the end zone. In another drive deep a player dropped a td and then northwestern missed a field goal for another red zone zero point scored. On another dirve a receiver yet again dropped a td pass and northwestern settled for a fg. HAving watched that game ... i would bet northwestern confidently and would not have wasted my time teasing them. They win that game straight up a very high percentage of the time in my mind. As it is .. they covered the tease for me but coupled with boston college it yeilded me a loss rather than a win. TEXAS--Longhorns pounded the texas tech defense as expected but the red raiders did wear down the texas defense as well. I was surprised that the longhorns struggled so much stopping tech late in that game but the teaser covered easily and coupled with tcu it gave me a 1-1 record and a push for the week on teasers. Week 11 marked the second saturday of the year where i did not cash a straight bet 1k ticket (rutgers was weekday ). enough about the debacle that was last week and onto week 12.

Due to other gambling work saturday night i did not get home until late or early hehe. So as of the time of this writing I have only capped 24 of the fifty or so games on the docket this week. Not much so far but will add them as i get them. All input welcomed and wanted.

Locked In
pennst/msu under 50.5
byu/wyoming under 45.5
idaho/boisest under 65.5
california/washington under 58
pittsburgh/rutgers under 48.5
middle attempt --- Hawaii -6 (stations) 110 to win 100 and nevada +7.5 ( rampart ) 110 to win 100

Strong leans
northwestern +14


talk meoffs
pittsburgh +11
utep +3 added to TMO nov 14
oregon state +2.5 added to TMO nov 14
 
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Great info as always.

My only lean is Northwestern as well so maybe tomorrow night we can talk this one over a bit more.
 
VK, would like your thoughts on any of the following:

North Carolina
Indiana
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
Kansas State
Miami
Boston College
NC State
Pittsburgh
 
Regarding your BC tease above, i was on them also. I did not know that 2 starting linebackers and starting safety would be out for the game, maryland did control the line, but also there were so many blown coverages, the tight end for maryland had a clean jersey for the game.
if these 3 are out agin for bc, clemson should cruise this week.
 
if these 3 are out agin for bc,

I'm pretty sure the linebackers - Dunbar and Pruitt - are out.
Stay tuned
 
The good news is ... i think i have found some totals that i can bet ... checking some details before playing tomorrow. The bad news is ... northwestern is the only thing even close to being a bet for me at this point. I do not have any strong leans other than them .. and pittsburgh is my only talk me off at this point. linesmakers win this week. Sorry for being late to respond to everyone this week .. but here goes....

Lindetrain -- of all the games you mention above i like pittsburgh the most. Their run defense should stifle rutgers attack a bit ... enough to keep it within the number. quick thoughts on the others.
UNC- i would never lay 10 points with georgia techs offense against any semblance of a defense.. unc does not qualify as a play for me but in the gun to the head situation it would be the tarheels
Indiana - purdue is a steaming pile right now and indiana just got bitch slapped by northwestern ( deceivingly close score). Home team or nothing i guess. slightest of leans to indiana. hoyer humiliated boilermaker secondary ... kellen lewis to hardy should do the same. indiana defense is sorry though and purdue spreads you out similar to northwestern and they could not stop northwestern unless they intercepted them in the end zone. whichever team wants to lose more will.
vanderbilt -- looks like the dog or nothing again.
kentucky -- wildcats match up similarly to georgia as tennessee did and tennessee spanked them. troy threw all over georgia as well. Matchup definitely favors kentucky plus a big number. but kentucky seems to have lost focus and georgia seems to be peaking. also richt vs brooks. i wouldnt lay 8 with georgia but im in no hurry to fade the bulldogs right now.
kansas state -- nothing about kansas state makes me want to play them. they got ass whooped by iowa state and nebraska back to back. They have one quality win vs texas ( unless you count colorado at homea QW ) and needed several huge special teams returns and turnovers to pull that one off. They are playing uninspired and while i think missouri cant help but be looking ahead a tad .... they are just that much better than k state. i dont like road chalk of this size a ton .. and when i do and bet it ... i tend to lose . so not laying it with mizz but i wouldnt bet kansas state.
miami -- if i saw this line a few weeks ago i would have loved it. but they looked like a bunch of quitters last week and vtechs defense is even better than virginia and their offense might be slightly better than cavaliers as well. NO WAY in hell i lay that number though with hokies. miami is a sound play on paper but i cant figure out if they will bother to show up.
boston college -- just got dominated by maryland ol and now faces clemson ol. would be on clemson if i trusted their pass defense ... but i dont. boston college simply isnt that good. just another great line by the bookmakers this week. what a crappy set of betting options. i am so pissed.
ncstate- wake is a better team but ncstate is on an upswing and wake a downswing. wolfpack plays better every week. love wake as a dog but dont trust them laying this as a favorite. lean of the slightest proportions to ncstate. but again .. linesmakers win.
pittsburgh -- i might be playing them myself

cashman -- knew about the injuries ,,,,, but didnt think injured terps could exploit them. BC has looked slow all season ... i finally figured out why. Because they are slow.

bull -- thanks for the info. if i am not mistaken you had a pretty good week last week. good job . hope i am remembering right.

pags -- cheers pags.... the number on the northwestern game is moving against me ... i want 14.5 ...maybe public money late in the week gets me there. i know already that i wont be playing unless i get atelast a 14.
 
kyle - you're right, partly.
I went an incredible 9-1 in the FCS games, but the FBS games did me in.
Maybe the reason you think the card is tough this week is that you should think more DOGS. I see a shitload I like, but I'm a dog lover. Most players go for FAVS,
GL
 
bull - i am not a dog or fav player. i make my own lines .... if it is far from the linesmakers by a predetermined amount ... i bet it. all my lines this week were too close to linesmakers. dog players will always do better than favorite players all things being equal. There are some really good favorite pickers out there though. my only two leans this week are dogs as it turns out. think i need 14.5 for nw to qualify as a play ... in other words to get to the requisite difference between my line and the books line. gl again this week in the fcs and might as well win at fbs too ! Friend wont bet for me at 5dimes anymore so i had to stop after 4 games this year. haha. atleast i can claim i went 75 percent in fcs in 2007 , next year.
 
Finally made some bets for this week. 5 unders ... that i hope do not put me six feet under !!!! All of these are very solid value in my eyes.

pennst/msu under 50.5
pittsburgh/rutgers under 48.5
idaho/boisest under 65.5 ( my favorite )
california/washington under 58
byu/wyoming under 45.5

defense ! defense ! haha..... just bet all these and you will make money .... unless they lose.
 
Totals week huh? LOVE the UNDER in the Pitt/Rutgers game, will be on it myself. GL with the rest of the card bro!
 
yanks , mags :cheers:

ADDING a middle attempt with tonights game. only to win 100 on each side.

Hawaii -6 110 to win 100
nevada +7.5 110 to win 100

ten bucks of exposure can't hurt me too bad.
 
good luck with those totals, kyle.
maybe you should consider 5Dimes next year ??
I underrstand betus has the FCS games, but I know nothing about them.
Thanks for the encouragement.
bull
 
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